Model output discussion - mid-winter

[geordiekev]

7 hours ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

A FEW OF THE UNCERTAINTIES AND ISSUES IN RELATION TO MODEL OUTPUT GOING FORWARD

 

 

                                             

BB62,Love your posts and appreciate the time and exceptional effort, but can I kindly ask that you change the font size of your posts. Not sure if you are aware, or if it's because you are pasting from your PC. But when viewing on a mobile the writing is so big that some sentences/lines only have 3 words so the jist of your excellent post is sometimes lost having to scroll down about 50 times.

Please don't think on knocking the length of your efforts which are very valid, it's just the font size means the rolling meaning is lost when viewing on mobile.

Thanks again for your invaluable and forensic analysis ?

[Mucka]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Note at day 10 we've got the troughing pretty much where we want it...

Over Europe

Yeah very nice day 10 mean anomalies including upper air.

Pretty sure I didn't post mean anomaly charts as I meant last night and posted Op anomalies instead - Shh, I mentioned the war once but I think i got away with it.

 

Guess I will have to stay up for the ECM now.

Addiction to these models doesn't get you in trouble at least, eh Harvey.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

Quite stark differences between ukmo/gfs at 144- gfs keeps the very cold zonal theme but ukmo looks like relaxing it- ukmo also has a much stronger mid Atlantic ridge -

wonder if we would see this high ridge up towards Greenland , at the very least it should encourage the jet to dive back towards Europe again..

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM a step colder again and in line with GFS

[timboy666]

the cold doesn’t ease in fact it intensifies and a significant cold easterly right at the end of FI

[Cheshire Freeze]

As Mr Burns would say- Excellent

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As Mr Burns would say- Excellent

WOW!!!!And the cold starts at 96 hours and continues all the way to the end of the run!!madness!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

As Mr Burns would say- Excellent

Yes the deviation plots show temps below average right from 96hrs on EC..

216 looks very cold ..

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes the deviation plots show temps below average right from 96hrs on EC..

216 looks very cold ..

Slack winds, -6 uppers and low thicknesses...looking at perhaps -10C overnight temps there?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well pick the bones out of this one...

Building Russian HP, filling Scandi trough, a meridional Atlantic jet, disrupting Atlantic troughing and a wedge of Icelandic heights....

Now I wonder where we could head from there

; )

[tight isobar]

We start the day off with some very good overnight modeling.-00z suits..

We have a full body of evolutionary, satification(if winter/cold/snowy weather is you preference)

Pm incur- continues to look healthy and again will no doubt carry surprise elements as we draw forwards.

We then look to evolve quite nicely into looking east/north east for our next bashing from old man winter...

Anyone get the feeling this winter is shaping up into quite something???..

I do!

[northwestsnow]

Agree with the above...

Looks cold..wonder if we might see some changes to Exeters musings later...

[Chesil View]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well pick the bones out of this one...

Building Russian HP, filling Scandi trough, a meridional Atlantic jet, disrupting Atlantic troughing and a wedge of Icelandic heights....

Now I wonder where we could head from there

; )

Judging by the date probably 1947 Crewe.

[carinthian]

Morning all, GFS ends with winter dream charts which looks a reasonable outcome to me. However, in the medium term there seems a variance to the flow profile at 144t between the UK/ECM run and the GFS. The chart below shows a more westerly flow at that stage . ThIs 500mb pressure /temp profile chart from UKMO at 144t highlights a tightening pressure and upper air temperature gradient to the southwest and what looks like a wave formation to develop. So not that straight forward to cold into Southern Britain as the south /SW  could yet be in line for some very stormy weather by the end of next week. Longer term looks cold for all with snow in favoured locations as Polar Continent air mixes in with the unstable Pm flow. Looks very interesting weather next week that should keep many cold fans interested in developments. Will get back this afternoon with a report from our Portal weather Service providers, specifics regarding UK next week.

C

Edited January 12, 2018 by carinthian

[That ECM]

This maybe one of those occasions where fi for once is further out as all 3 are consistent upto t144, small variances but not dissimilar. The later output is showing interest and there are reasons to be hopeful. Watching the deep cold in US lift out being one imo.  The chart attached says anything but our normal sw to ne feed.

[andymusic]

well one word - SNOWMAGEDDON - as you were

[sparky1972]

morning all, just a quick one from me, great to see this morning that the potential is still there for a decent cold spell for some, but i have to admit being slightly underwhelmed from a imby perspective, next 10 day have temps as high as 9c on monday and no lower than 5c for the next 10 days, winds always from w or s/w, is this chilly spell going to be a west side of the country thing?

 

           

[The Beast From The East]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well pick the bones out of this one...

Building Russian HP, filling Scandi trough, a meridional Atlantic jet, disrupting Atlantic troughing and a wedge of Icelandic heights....

Now I wonder where we could head from there

; )

This is looking fantastic and upgrades keep coming now. I just hope the UK doesn't find away to escape all the cold options like it usually manages to do lol. ☺

[West is Best]

Just now, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

This is looking fantastic and upgrades keep coming now. I just hope the UK doesn't find away to escape all the cold options like it usually manages to do lol. ☺

It's looking good and you are right about it upgrading. In all fairness I think we all will acknowledge that it's still slightly precarious. If the cold pool were to shift 300 miles to the east we'd miss out. Unfortunately that has happened too often for my liking, sometimes as close as T72 or T48.

But we live in hope. And the Daily Express has announced the news so it must be true  

[MattStoke]

8 hours ago, high ground birmingham said:

I’m sorry but this is a little inaccurate 

Dont get me wrong but that week in December was incredible (10 inches snow) but the whole set up was different. It was a NNWerly and then a slider running into the cold air gave all that snow.

This is different in that a pretty potent WNWerly will be hitting our shores. Quite unstable and unpredictable. Anything can be thrown in with some possibly pretty intense snow showers. Quite an exciting set up as things will just develop on the radar in no time. Probably the most potent cold Atlantic flow I have seen modelled in a very long time.

It wasn’t a slider that gave all the snow. There were showers feeding in from the North West, as there will be next week. Both December’s spell and next week will have seen flow from the NW, whether that flow is initially sourced from the Atlantic or Arctic, and next week's doesn't look anywhere near as potent.  NNW or WNW - They are both from a NW'ly direction. It is nonsense that next week will see the most potent NW'ly in years.

[bluearmy]

If we get to here then no need to bother much with uppers, given the slack flow and low thicknesses

 

And just as i dont place any store in the op over an ens member post day 10/11 when it shows mild, neither do I when it shows cold. 

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

36 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

morning all, just a quick one from me, great to see this morning that the potential is still there for a decent cold spell for some, but i have to admit being slightly underwhelmed from a imby perspective, next 10 day have temps as high as 9c on monday and no lower than 5c for the next 10 days, winds always from w or s/w, is this chilly spell going to be a west side of the country thing?

 

           

They are maximum temperatures though and will likely be alot lower during showers etc.

My view on the upcoming spell is that not everyone will see settling snow but if you are a weather enthusiast you will not be disappointed with just about every type of weather possible across the UK next week due to the extremely cold (high up) and unstable flow from the NW the likes of which does not happen very often.

There will no doubt be rain sleet hail thunder and lightning gales snow and God forbid there may even be some sunshine!

And who knows if we do get height rises out West and the winds do end up swinging around to the NE that brings more of the country into line for the snow risk.  Even Mulzy might have a smile on his face!  

Edited January 12, 2018 by Kentish Snowman

[SMU]

A great set of runs today - just the ECM Day 10 looking a bit iffy but who cares about that for now- A cold spell at least 5-6 days long - with a possible transition to continued cold from the NE however as the ECM shows of we get a deep trough angled wrong over Scandi we won’t tap the deeper cold air -

[Snowmadsam]

38 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, GFS ends with winter dream charts which looks a reasonable outcome to me. However, in the medium term there seems a variance to the flow profile at 144t between the UK/ECM run and the GFS. The chart below shows a more westerly flow at that stage . ThIs 500mb pressure /temp profile chart from UKMO at 144t highlights a tightening pressure and upper air temperature gradient to the southwest and what looks like a wave formation to develop. So not that straight forward to cold into Southern Britain as the south /SW  could yet be in line for some very stormy weather by the end of next week. Longer term looks cold for all with snow in favoured locations as Polar Continent air mixes in with the unstable Pm flow. Looks very interesting weather next week that should keep many cold fans interested in developments. Will get back this afternoon with a report from our Portal weather Service providers, specifics regarding UK next week.

C

Yes this does concern me, could be a rain event on that day looking at upper air temperatures. Someone feel free to correct me?

[andymusic]

5 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Yes this does concern me, could be a rain event on that day looking at upper air temperatures. Someone feel free to correct me?

don't think you got too much to worry about - the next couple of weeks from Monday night looking cold and wintry/snowy for us