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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. 😂  Thankfully anything past 120/144 is pure conjecture.

Yes noticed that, deepest FI though, need a better angled attack from the Atlantic at 252

h850t850eu.png

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Don't know if anyone has posted these but the Ecm 00z ensemble mean clearly shows a spell of increasngly cold zonality arriving during the first half of next week, especially further north and lasting through into the following week.:):cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU00_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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wonder if the models can deliver this to our shores starting next week care of les alps lol

a new ice age dawns - who said the glaciers were dead?

 

snowfest.jpg

Edited by andymusic
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The north west of britain is looking favourable for snow. Could someone point me in the right direction  please. What parts of the country class as north west? Scotland, n.ireland and nw england?? 

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Just now, Snowjokes92 said:

The north west of britain is looking favourable for snow. Could someone point me in the right direction  please. What parts of the country class as north west? Scotland, n.ireland and nw england?? 

Anywhere north and west of the M4

 

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6 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

The north west of britain is looking favourable for snow. Could someone point me in the right direction  please. What parts of the country class as north west? Scotland, n.ireland and nw england?? 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSR9Fiv_y5gvU-SgNAiBMo

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Would class that as south midlands (down to bristol and then eastwards) for someone like us thats right in the North of England in Durham/Newcastle area.

 

Be much more better if people used a city to describe the location rather than North, South, East, NW

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Charts like this at 150 hrs I thought this place would be in melt down and not a ghost town.....snow potential to the south east of UK.

Anyhow, north west looking like it could get a pasting next week, potential for long periods of heavy snow.......am awaiting the next roll out of charts with excited anticipation.

 

prectypeuktopo.png

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Predicting snow at 6 hours can be a challenge let alone 6 days. Pretty much guaranteed the next run will show something different at that time frame. 

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9 minutes ago, Chris. said:

Would class that as south midlands (down to bristol and then eastwards) for someone like us thats right in the North of England in Durham/Newcastle area.

 

Be much more better if people used a city to describe the location rather than North, South, East, NW

My reckoning would be somewhere in the region of: Liverpool, Manchester, Preston, Lancaster, Lake District/Cumbria.....  I often wonder too, as North West covers a big area too..... round here, Preston we rarely get snow, yet Cheshire 50 miles south do well....

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I thought this was the model output discussion, not the ‘where will it snow’

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7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I thought this was the model output discussion, not the ‘where will it snow’

That 20 page an hour discussion is on its way no doubt:cold::rofl::wallbash:

Still wonder if the next 96-120 may have some never saw that coming moments

Edited by Chris101
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22 minutes ago, damianb123 said:

My reckoning would be somewhere in the region of: Liverpool, Manchester, Preston, Lancaster, Lake District/Cumbria.....  I often wonder too, as North West covers a big area too..... round here, Preston we rarely get snow, yet Cheshire 50 miles south do well....

Might be best discussing this in the Regional Threads.

Then we can stick with the Title of the Thread.

And on That note Models seem to be firming on Quite a cold week Starting from around Monday with plenty of wintriness and probably not reserved just for High Ground either

C.S 

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32 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Charts like this at 150 hrs I thought this place would be in melt down and not a ghost town.....snow potential to the south east of UK.

Anyhow, north west looking like it could get a pasting next week, potential for long periods of heavy snow.......am awaiting the next roll out of charts with excited anticipation.

 

prectypeuktopo.png

To be honest GFS looks ok..Ec doesnt look great and Exeters update sounds distinctly more wet than white..

I would reign in expectations if i were you  ...if you dont have at the minimum 200m altitude i dont think you will see much if any lying snow. :-(

 

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

To be honest GFS looks ok..Ec doesnt look great and Exeters update sounds distinctly more wet than white..

I would reign in expectations if i were you  ...if you dont have at the minimum 200m altitude i dont think you will see much if any lying snow. :-(

 

I disagree about the Ecm, it looks great for the north with 520 dam at times, hope the 12z upgrades it even more!..generally pleased with the trend towards a spell of cold zonality which in January means favoured areas will get significant snow.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I disagree about the Ecm, it looks great for the north with 520 dam at times, hope the 12z upgrades it even more!..generally pleased with the trend towards a spell of cold zonality which in January means favoured areas will get significant snow.

Fingers crossed Karl..

:)

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eyes down gfs 12z on the way out - let's see how much cold it can wrap around that low next week

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51 minutes ago, Jayces said:

Predicting snow at 6 hours can be a challenge let alone 6 days. Pretty much guaranteed the next run will show something different at that time frame. 

Yes agree, my location needs the perfect angle off a NW'ly, as it stands at the moment (deep FI) winds look WNW'ly, so showers will drift ESE through the Cheshire Gap, giving Stockport a pasting, then into Derbyshire

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Don't know if anyone has posted these but the Ecm 00z ensemble mean clearly shows a spell of increasngly cold zonality arriving during the first half of next week, especially further north and lasting through into the following week.:):cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU00_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Well looking at those model outputs from Frosty, should they verify even roughly then I would expect to see some wintriness Western Highlands, Lakes, Pennines North Wales and probably to low levels in these areas dependent upon exactly how the temperatures verify. So from a North West perspective I'd anticipate west of the Pennines, in a line maybe North and West of the Cheshire Gap ?

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12 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Evening all. Well a super good day here, 20cm of fresh overnight powder snow. We have a total depth in the village of 100cm and well over 150 cm at 2000m. You can imagine our snow portal service has been working overtime in recent days. We now have avalanche warning especially runs at 2000m plus. Its an area warning that includes Karten, Salzburgerland, Tirol, Voralbourg with some big accumulations reported on the peaks further west and towards the Sud Tirol. Thankfully, heaviest snow tomorrow and Saturday seems to be heading in the direction of the Pyrenees and France ( as if they do not already have enough ) delivered by that developing low off Brittany. That leads me on to a brief forecast provided by our portal service forecasting team with specifics regarding the British Isles.  Shorter term models have the block to remain for at least another 48 hours induced by lower height transferring SE into mainland Europe, . Light e/ne  continental flow across the UK. Dry for most of the period including much of the weekend. Still some doubt as to how the Atlantic trough aligns and the timing as to when it breaks through the British Isles, (Monday seems to be the favoured day ) but could still only affect the North and West at that stage. Certainly support over here for second half of January to go strongly negative NAO with a Low pressure squeeze into Western Europe between the robust Scandinavian High and developing height rises in the Western/ North Atlantic.  Obviously,  that set up would put Blighty on snow alert but as ever its still in the longer term and you snow starved lot still have to wait.Cheers all from a mega snowbound Katschberg.

C

lucky devil - pics please lol

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All this talk of NW England getting poss snow, surely anywhere in Jan in a PM flow with decent 850s has a chance, especially at night 

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

All this talk of NW England getting poss snow, surely anywhere in Jan in a PM flow with decent 850s has a chance, especially at night 

Not really - the only way folk in the South can have any meaningful and lying snow is for runners to run across the base of any dominant trough and even then a hell of a lot of luck is needed.

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

All this talk of NW England getting poss snow, surely anywhere in Jan in a PM flow with decent 850s has a chance, especially at night 

GFS UKmo going for snow in cold pm from Monday on:cold:

Edited by snowice
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