Model output discussion - mid-winter

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, that's whats worrying me. I think Phillip Avery thinks the same as well, Westerly veering Northerly for a short time then Westerly again.

Yes that’s my concern as you can see I’ve been obsessing over the slowness of that trough to sink se. What’s new! 

If the trough sinks se enough then given the overall pattern that would lock the cold in for much longer.

 

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

tonights beeb agrees with the gfs going from a stonking north westerly to a northerly and then even back to another stonking north westerly apparently

These are exactions made via -met-bbc..

As to overall exaction/exactions.

And as such are inferior atm due to versitile dynamics.with gradiants and ebbs.

I think you may find updates for lrf,s..are notably different over the next updates +24/48hrs.. 

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by tight isobar

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

These are exactions made via -met-bbc..

As to overall exaction/exactions.

And as such are inferior atm due to versitile dynamics.with gradiants and ebbs.

I think you may find updates for lrcs..are notably different over the next updates +24/48hrs.. 

 

quite possibly but that's there stance right now - no doubt slightly behind with info possibly as the models update into this wintry phase of weather

[feb1991blizzard]

Either way though, if the 18z GFS was to verify, there would certainly be some serious localised snow totals and some serious disruption to travel.

[johnholmes]

31 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Please can I ask you use a smaller type, it really is way too big, made worse when some folk copy the whole post when they simply want to say they agree.

thank you

 

 

                                             

 

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Perhaps its the Shoveling Snow Way forward.

Anyway for the record people - here they are.

 

Nice to see, although last year has well and truly put me off putting much faith in the ec46 charts 

[SMU]

Sub -15 territory over the UK

[ribster]

28 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Thanks for that amazing informative post. Very interesting 

Thanks for quoting the whole damn thing! 

[Frosty.]

18z looks awesome next week with a good blast of cold zonality with some impressive low thicknesses and snow to look forward to as well, not just on hills in the north!!!..really looking forward to it!

[andymusic]

and another sexy slider out in FI

[SMU]

& that’s 6pm in the eve^^^^

whats the 06am chart the next day!

[snowbunting]

Wow... stunning cold runs on the GFS today. Looks like it will be more than just a cold snap with snow potential for 7 to 10 days. 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& that’s 6pm in the eve^^^^

whats the 06am chart the next day!

It warms up because the slider moves in.

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It warms up because the slider moves in.

way way out in fI so just for fun right now but a good 7 plus days of cold freezing stuff starting Monday to look forward to

[Frosty.]

Great charts from the 18z, impressive cold zonality this would be!!

[Ice Day]

And the obligatory charts showing the 'potential' SSW.  Starting at 204

Peaking with this at 348

It's not going away!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

way way out in fI so just for fun right now but a good 7 plus days of cold freezing stuff starting Monday to look forward to

And just for good measure as if the run isn't action packed enough, by 384 we look heading towards a technical SSW for good measure as well.

[BlackburnChris]

Surely the Metoffice will start coming on board tomorrow .. All the boxes are checked for some serious disruption

[Bazray]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And just for good measure as if the run isn't action packed enough, by 384 we look heading towards a technical SSW for good measure as well.

Cant really read the charts, is there any luck for the south west please? Rather snow starved down here, 2010 being the last significant event.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Bazray

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Bazray said:

Cant really read the charts, is there any luck for the south west please? 

Here is the snow depth chart in centimetres so although GFS overdoes these - suggests not without interest although Exmoor / Dartmoor favoured more for significant accumulations obviously.

[Bazray]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the snow depth chart in centimetres so although GFS overdoes these - suggests not without interest although Exmoor / Dartmoor favoured more for significant accumulations obviously.

At least in with a shout then! Ill take that right now, Thank You. 

[MattTarrant]

Just now, Bazray said:

Cant really read the charts, is there any luck for the south west please? 

Still too much uncertainty in the exact dominant wind component, this has repercussions on the moderation at the boundary level. Though with the very cold 500mb heights, the more convective showers (Increased updrafts & downdrafts) could see wet snow mixed in almost anywhere. For reading the charts in regard to snow chances cite back to Nick F's detailed post a few pages back. 

[Bazray]

1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Still too much uncertainty in the exact dominant wind component, this has repercussions on the moderation at the boundary level. Though with the very cold 500mb heights, the more convective showers (Increased updrafts & downdrafts) could see wet snow mixed in almost anywhere. For reading the charts in regard to snow chances cite back to Nick F's detailed post a few pages back. 

Thanks Matt I,ll take a look

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And the obligatory charts showing the 'potential' SSW.  Starting at 204

Peaking with this at 348

It's not going away!

Hopefully this will help diminish the misconception that we only see these charts at T+384 and it never gets closer. GFS has modelled this very well IMO it’s not really took its foot of the pedal.

[high ground birmingham]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Had powder snow here that lasted on the ground for days and day time temperatures struggled to get above freezing. All the lakes and canals froze over. It was the most potent NW’ly I can remember in a very long time. Next week looks far less potent to me, and far more marginal (not just from an IMBY perspective). I would be amazed if delivers anything like that, but hopeful of some snow.

Anywayy, probably going to get a slap on the wrist for going off topic!

I’m sorry but this is a little inaccurate 

Dont get me wrong but that week in December was incredible (10 inches snow) but the whole set up was different. It was a NNWerly and then a slider running into the cold air gave all that snow.

This is different in that a pretty potent WNWerly will be hitting our shores. Quite unstable and unpredictable. Anything can be thrown in with some possibly pretty intense snow showers. Quite an exciting set up as things will just develop on the radar in no time. Probably the most potent cold Atlantic flow I have seen modelled in a very long time.