Model output discussion - mid-winter

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Living south of the M4 and seeing all this snow chat and knowing your going to miss out again

T192. Very cold everywhere, most places could see a whiteout at some point I would think. Look at all that cold air towards the NE of us

Edited January 11, 2018 by snowray

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Living south of the M4 and seeing all this snow chat and knowing your going to miss out again

how so - gfs has a covering progged for the south west too

[joggs]

3 hours ago, legritter said:

Yes Gang ,next week looks exciting ,we have some very interesting weather on the way for many of us .Lets hope all areas see some of the white stuff .many features could pop up in a cold flow off the Atlantic , and if some of us are lucky especially if these features arrive overnight and are intense enough we could see Snow even in the south ,i,v seen it before .So lovely jubley ,i,v just pulled out our new Sofa ,will go behind that at charts time ,and get the dog to Watch the charts and Nod or Shake his head if they are good or bad .Great forum To read folks ,wish all Snow wise ,best of luck ,And for you Curtain twitchers ,please do so with Clean hands ,My Late Wife was forever moaning at me for getting marks on curtains and blinds ,That realy was her only moans ,roll on GFS ,and ECM this evening take care all .

Sorry mods,this made my day.Legritter this had me in stitches about your Late wife(bless her) and the dirt marks.

Sorry,but told my wife and she totally understand where your missus came from lol.

Hope there's plenty of curtain twitching going on for all next week.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:T192. Very cold everywhere, most places could see a whiteout at some point I would think.

Looks like some decent snowfall possible anywhere very good agreement with GFS.

[snowray]

Here we go, HP in the Atlantic, winds veering more NE, snow chances shifting to the east of the country as colder air digs in. Lovely chart!!!!! Very cold again.

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW I agree (or don't mind them) the way you use them - for 5 day periods averaged out - I just see them as a bit pointless for the exact chart at 144 etc.

Quite agree they were never intended to be used that way

[Bazray]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

how so - gfs has a covering progged for the south west too

Awesome thanks for sharing - most of what I have read has alluded to snow being in the north on elevated grounds.

[lorenzo]

Quite remarkable modelling this evening..

Going from this at 24 to this at 216 within one run... akin to someone letting the plug out of a very cold vortexy bath and letting it dissipate all over the UK.

No complaints mind you !

[nick sussex]

Humpgate! 

That hump in the flow east of Iceland at T216 hrs , we’d like that smoothed out or a lot further south so that energy can’t phase with the incoming upstream low.

We want a clean flow with high pressure exterting more influence where the hump is.

Overall though a step up from this mornings ECM 00 hrs run.

 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Humpgate! 

That hump in the flow east of Iceland at T216 hrs , we’d like that smoothed out or a lot further south so that energy can’t phase with the incoming upstream low.

We want a clean flow with high pressure exterting more influence where the hump is.

Overall though a step up from this mornings ECM 00 hrs run.

 

Mate its a brilliant run!!expect more changes for the better maybe!!

[Daniel*]

Wintry from Tuesday onwards if EC is to be believed best believable output of the winter.  

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

all i say  is expect  the white stuff  after  jan  16 !!

[nick sussex]

Just now, shaky said:

Mate its a brilliant run!!expect more changes for the better maybe!!

I always look out for troublemakers ! 

The humps okay if it’s clearing the UK, you don’t want it sticking out.

Factor in that there will be an approaching low from upstream which you want to disrupt which is more likely with a stronger ridge to the north.

Anyway it’s my hump and I’ll play with it if I want to!  

[Frosty.]

What a great run the Ecm 12z  turned into with potent cold zonality for most of next week..snow ❄❄❄❄❄prospects are improving judging by these charts!..

Edited January 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Ignore if you are not interested in vague longer term signals.

 

Just to put a little detail on a previous post which alluded to GFS ensembles strengthening a blocking signal for later in January.

Below are the last four mean anomaly charts *last four days) for GFS 12z for Jan 24th.

Something to grasp at for those not overly impressed by the upcoming cold zonal spell.

We will see if the trend continues the next few days

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Anyway it’s my hump and I’ll play with it if I want to!  

You're not called Nick, you're Fergie from the Black Eyed Peas 

In all seriousness, it's good to the ECM pull towards the GFS solution. ECM has uppers widely at -5/-6 now throughout the WNW'ly flow. As has been said, those with elevation look like they may have significant snowfall (esp in NW UK) but those on lower ground will likely see some surprises in the flow from time to time...especially in light of the low thicknesses.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

You're not called Nick, you're Fergie from the Black Eyed Peas 

In all seriousness, it's good to the ECM pull towards the GFS solution. ECM has uppers widely at -5/-6 now throughout the WNW'ly flow. As has been said, those with elevation look like they may have significant snowfall (esp in NW UK) but those on lower ground will likely see some surprises in the flow from time to time...especially in light of the low thicknesses.

Think of me as that annoying auditor coming to look at the books!

I’m looking for anything dodgy or in this case where the figures might be wrong .

So remove the hump replace it with a ridge.

The upstream low even if it likes a big hump can’t mate with it and the energy will head more se .

Anyway enough of my double entendres! 

Soon instead of humpgate it will be smutgate ! 

[Alexis]

21 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Awesome thanks for sharing - most of what I have read has alluded to snow being in the north on elevated grounds.

That chart is so low res to be worthless to be honest. I’m not discounting snow to low levels, I’m just saying don’t go off a 1 degree GFS guesstimate chart.

[Spikey M]

27 minutes ago, craigore said:

Will all be very moderated for us in the S.E Again !! Looking very good for all those west & North..

Not a great Winter for us Southerners again. 

I’ve had snow 3 times so far? Pretty good for Essex.

anyway, There seems to be more of a northerly element to tonight’s models, which will make things feel even more raw. I imagine there will be some impressive wind chill figures on display.

[Pembroke Dangler]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What a great run the Ecm 12z  turned into with potent cold zonality for most of next week..snow ❄❄❄❄❄prospects are improving judging by these charts!..

Yes indeed and giving the ecm propensity to underdoo uppers you could add maybe another 1 degree below what it shows and if you get some troughs inbeded in the flow and intense showers the boundary between snow and rain will be breached with evaporative cooling. I will be on the lookout for the fabled thundersnow event in this setup it just screams the potential would love to see it again pink lightening very weird. 

[northwestsnow]

As karl showed- EC now showing uppers of -7 in the keen NW winds- -6 pushing well south-

Its only my op but people talking about the north west, the way things are going in wont just be the north west in with a shout!!

[sparky1972]

34 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Living south of the M4 and seeing all this snow chat and knowing your going to miss out again

i feel your pain, but it really is great to see that some parts of the uk are potentially in for a real treat over the comming days.

[snowray]

Worth bearing in mind that we are talking mid January here, so prime winter rump, when was the last cold and snowy spell in mid January, I can't remember one myself. So the over all effect will be that where snow settles we will have our own home grown cold pool developing over the snow fields, the sun is very weak so snow melt will be minimal, so feeling bitter. This could develop into a memorable cold spell with ice days and the cold could build towards the end of the month if we see any more solid northern/Atlantic block develop. Them temperatures might turn out to be on the mild side of things if anything.

[Methuselah]

Next week's looking good - for a northwesterly, that is: I think the last times I remember such a depth of cold, from that direction, were in December 1967 and February and November 1973?

And on all three of those occasions, snow fell to the south of the M4...

[Jason T]

40 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Living south of the M4 and seeing all this snow chat and knowing your going to miss out again

Far to early to make that call my friend...Get the cold in and believe me it will be cold. Some pretty outstanding data coming out now within the reliable. Everything still to play for and Upgrade.  Good winter cold spell on the horizon. Stay tuned.