Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Day 10]

If anything the flow looks a little stronger and little more Northwesterly.

[shaky]

06z out to 120 hours and pretty much identical to 00z

[weirpig]

Oh  the promise of a snowflake somewhere and the thread descends into chaos.  We all know it will end up in the Midlands.  Anyway  an interesting period of weather coming up  a clod zonal flow  which will produce surprises somewhere.  Elevation as always is key.   certainly more exciting than the past few weeks.   hopefully the 6z can put some meat on the bones

Edited January 11, 2018 by weirpig

[Weathizard]

Back to the models, GFS very consistent out the 6z.. if anything colder 850's making inroads, still not good enough for the far south mind but good for the north, starting to get exciting now for some.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Paul

[weirpig]

Snow as early as 120  on the GFS   effecting a large swath of the country.   However GFS always over does precipitation charts,  Nice to see though

[Paul]

Can we drop this pointless nw Britain stuff please, it's not model discussion and it's just pedantic to keep banging on about it. It's a generalisation, mostly because at this range you're not going to get a clear answer as to where certain weather types can be expected. I know many of you would like to know that it's going to snow in your back gardens, but this isn't the thread to be pining after such detail. 

[The Eagle]

Pretty good models for the Republic of Ireland and UK. Greenland express

[EastAnglian]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Can we drop this pointless nw Britain stuff please, it's not model discussion and it's just pedantic to keep banging on about it. It's a generalisation, mostly because at this range you're not going to get a clear answer as to where certain weather types can be expected. I know many of you would like to know that it's going to snow in your back gardens, but this isn't the thread to be pining after such detail, and it's certainly not the thread to be arguing about what constitutes NW Britain (or any other part of the country in fact). 

Here here, thought I had been connected to a kindergarten site this morning and as for the NW "debate" least said the better. Will it snow in my back garden questions were asked, all to frequently on the old BBC Weather website, If you are not old enough to remember it lucky you. 

 

Regarding the GFS 06Z output up to 120 hours it seems very consistent with the last run. Still showing a cold zonal flow and snow possibilities. We shall see.....

[frosty ground]

By the time we get to next wednesday.

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

By the time we get to next wednesday.

Looks good for NW Britain, especially on the hills.

[Skyraker]

By Wednesday dew points are below freezing and 850s around -6.

everything that happens thereafter is just gravy.

 

0 deg isotherm at 200m, snow all the way.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Skyraker
Added isotherm stuff

[andymusic]

cracking looking charts for next week - snowfest city

[tight isobar]

Heights building point tip greenland.

Russian-warmth spiking over the top northern most scandi..with shallow heights @top greenland. .

Can we upset the flow/rotation...then alingn an easterly/northern easterly inflow?!..

Looking promising...

Edit;..

And yes things ramping up on the pm flow before any above!!!

Edited January 11, 2018 by tight isobar

[karyo]

A nice Atlantic ridge by 170 hours join the Azores High. Looking good on this run and more amplified than the 0z.

Also lower heights into Iberia which is good to see. We don't want the AH to nose in.

Edited January 11, 2018 by karyo

[andymusic]

[swfc]

The gfs 6zis an upgrade and if you look from the from the 160 hrs mark some great ridging of the esb connecting to the azores high.could be a good run going into fi

Edited January 11, 2018 by swfc

[frosty ground]

by 192 heights over the pole are positive and the PV is in pieces

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

A nice Atlantic ridge by 170 hours join the Azores High. Looking good on this run and more amplified than the 0z.

Yep. Modelled consistently now, with the pressure increasing around Greenland and the piece of vortex pumping up WAA this seems like an opportunity to get some proper heights built.

Its not complete lalaland either for once, low res normally blows away any ridges so difficult to get a realistic view of where it could lead

[DIS1970]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

By the time we get to next wednesday.

The Midlands, East  Anglia, the eastern side of Northern England, and all of Southern England looks like it will be sheltered/missing from any snowfall - if those charts are accurate and come to fruition that is. Time will tell, and just a small tweek in wind direction can make a huge difference.

[Skyraker]

Lost, polar vortex.. last seen leaving nightclub in November.

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20180111/06/195/npsh500.png

[tight isobar]

Uk air source late jan-early feb...why not ?!!!

[Paul_1978]

T+222, not a million miles away. Surely there's got to be a decent amount of snow in this chart?

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Uk air source late jan-early feb...why not ?!!!

That’ll put the inter-regional Netweather war to bed ? 

we could be looking at a very cold February if things fall right for the UK, long overdue.

Edited January 11, 2018 by karlos1983

[mulzy]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Uk air source late jan-early feb...why not ?!!!

Not so sure, think with the Azores High lurking with intent, we need to look west again after 10 days.  If we can take the Azores High out of the equation then there is some potential...

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

By the time we get to next wednesday.

Deja vu from December in that most of Wales has some snow except us on the south coast, shame because the sea temperatures are another 2C colder since then, now around 7-8C and they're not going to drop much lower