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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

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ECM rescue mission 144looks great cold uppers flooding south. 

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

???

 Really? The 850s are an upgrade at 144!!

ECM0-144.GIF?11-12

120 - mild sector.

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The ECM overall though an upgrade for PM but unsure its that great long term for blocking potential - and that's more important IMO

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So a cold pm flow heading into the weekend showing up now on gfs ukmo and ecm. But I would think it will be very marginal for any snow away from the highest hills. And also the mo don’t seem interested in much of the white stuff. So I would keep expectations low if anyone is expecting snow. Think with the upper temps we are looking at for most it will be cold sleety rain. 

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM overall though an upgrade for PM but unsure its that great long term for blocking potential - and that's more important IMO

ECM imo is far better for a long term block due to Atlantic ridging....not all blocks have to be from the east.

ECMOPEU00_192_1-4.png

Edited by KTtom
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2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

ECM imo is far better for a long term block due to Atlantic ridging....not all blocks have to be from the east.

Its no way better than GFS.

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Ecm, ukmo or gfs is cold wet and windy for most over the coming days. Some favoured areas will see snow but not for many. Gfs shows potential as it moves into fi.

Potential and fi:D if I had a £.......

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its no way better than GFS.

Its a cold run...go on wz and check the deviation plots..

I actually cant believe you are moaning this morning..esp as your location will likely see snow..talk about glass empty..:nonono:

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Ecm, ukmo or gfs is cold wet and windy for most over the coming days. Some favoured areas will see snow but not for many. Gfs shows potential as it moves into fi.

Potential and fi:D if I had a £.......

Think theres an IMBY element to this post..it looks snowy for much of NW Britain..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a cold run...go on wz and check the deviation plots..

I actually cant believe you are moaning this morning..esp as your location will likely see snow..talk about glass empty..:nonono:

What are the deviation plots for again? 

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Finishing on a very interesting note in day 10, oh ECMenders is well and truely on this morning! 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Think theres an IMBY element to this post..it looks snowy for much of NW Britain..

IMBY? I said many you said NW :rofl:

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Im not sure but if Feb is referring to the nhp he is correct

 

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4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

What are the deviation plots for again? 

They are Wz mate :)

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

IMBY? I said many you said NW :rofl:

Sorry mate ..

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a cold run...go on wz and check the deviation plots..

I actually cant believe you are moaning this morning..esp as your location will likely see snow..talk about glass empty..:nonono:

How is it moaning - just stating the GFS is great, ECM less so for cold UK weather over next 2 weeks.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

How is it moaning - just stating the GFS is great, ECM less so for cold UK weather over next 2 weeks.

Its cold feb ...and you say less cold than gfs but ec has uppers of -5/-6..gfs very similar...

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Upgrade the theme

 

Screenshot_20180111-070544.png

Edited by winterof79
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6 minutes ago, OfficialKevWX said:

Much better ECM today compared to yesterday evenings run.

Yes it is...:)

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I cant access the Ec snow depth charts as im in work..can anyone give an update please :)

 

07D0F1E5-4F85-46C4-8159-CF0F31B497F7.png

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I cant access the Ec snow depth charts as im in work..can anyone give an update please :)

 

0B126C3E-6EE2-43CC-A1D0-658BB68F3FF2.pngOut to the 20/01/18

Edited by Fozfoster
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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I cant access the Ec snow depth charts as im in work..can anyone give an update please :)

NW - a right belting, parts of wales - a right belting, Parts of SE including London - some snow

Ive now developed a very reliable formula for interpreting these snow depth charts.

actualsnowdepth = us.weathersnowdepthchart - us.weathersnowdepthchart     !!!!!

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2 minutes ago, OfficialKevWX said:

 

07D0F1E5-4F85-46C4-8159-CF0F31B497F7.png

Snow South of the M4 there, must be wrong!😀

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Well well well. The GFS is producing some pretty wintry scenarios next week for some parts. Good agreement on the ensembles until the 21st. 

t850Western~Isles.png

Looks like that powerful jet will dive southwards past the Uk (thankfully).. and in doing so displaces the High pressure over East Europe Northwards. Creating blocking to pur North and an invitation for some very cold weather.  I totally agree with some comments about longer range developments... feb could be very wintry. 

 

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