Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Daniel*]

25 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Whilst I admire your post  Frosty I could jaffa cakes in to the wind and be more accurate than charts 10 and 11 days away.

Not quite true and well no one would want to see that.  

I’m seeing good consistency from GFS for winds to veer north to northeast this also fits with the main EC cluster this evening with amplification signal. So it potentially looks the most significant cold spell of the winter may be coming the ball has just started rolling, late January into early February is looking decent.  

Before that a quite wintry PM pattern very snowy for hilly NW England even to low levels at times.

I missed Scotland and NI and Ireland apologies..

Edited January 10, 2018 by Daniel*

[markw2680]

I suppose I should stop been so doom n gloom cuz that’s not me. Right time to be positive regarding next week, it’s all been underplayed and will be considerably colder than what is been predicted with frequent heavy snow showers pushing in on a stiff nw wind, pretty much everywhere in the uk will have at least a covering. How nice would that be and I suppose the latest gfs run isn’t far off that just a little colder would be nice. 

I may now go back to been miserable ? 

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I wouldnt be suprised.

Was the the week ahead Marcus?

Yes mate , set up the same but no great mention of snow though things can change  as we know, 

[ITSY]

Some ens members going off the cliff temperature wise, with very interesting hemispheric Synoptics. I get the feeling that the tropherishic pressure on the PV, coupled with possible stratospheric warmings, could really open up some opportunities for cold lovers as we hit the back end of this month and move towards February...

[Mucka]

56 minutes ago, snowice said:

No sign of the easterly fan club lol. 

Such a strange winter anything could happen. Gfs sticking to the 12z roll on the ooz.

I'm over here.

"Splitter!"

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Some ens members going off the cliff temperature wise, with very interesting hemispheric Synoptics. I get the feeling that the tropherishic pressure on the PV, coupled with possible stratospheric warmings, could really open up some opportunities for cold lovers as we hit the back end of this month and move towards February...

Yes, as good a GEFS suite as any this winter, Genuine flatliners in there.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Yes mate , set up the same but no great mention of snow though things can change  as we know, 

To be fair you’ll have a better idea how things will pan out on here.

GFS / UKMO / ECM at day 6 we have very good overall agreement. High confidence of it being a very wintry bearing pattern IMO, for Scotland and north even to low levels.

The hills will see the biggest falls of snow of the winter so far, could be quite a substantial avalanche risk in the Highlands of Scotland eventually no huge signal for benign conditions. 

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, as good a GEFS suite as any this winter, Genuine flatliners in there.

Yep good set of ens there . Flat lining and London hitting 20 on the snow row that far out , not to often you see that . 

[nick sussex]

It looks like a race between the sinking trough near the UK and low pressure moving east out of Canada.

If the building heights to the north west of the trough gets sufficiently south then the ridge could do its job and help disrupt the energy se’wards.

All will be revealed over the coming days.

[MidnightSnow]

I know you shouldn't take precip charts too seriously when they're a week away, but how come they're showing snow showers right down to the south coast? The vibe I'm getting reading through this thread is that only hilly parts of the NW will see snow next week.

Edited January 11, 2018 by MidnightSnow

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I know you shouldn't take precip charts too seriously when they're a week away, but how come they're showing snow showers right down to the south coast? The vibe I'm getting reading through this thread is that only hilly parts of the NW will see snow next week.

if your talking GFS, they have a significant bias towards snow on the ppn type, particularly with nw or w winds as well, if they would have verified the last 10 years, I would have had some serious snowfall!!

[Panayiotis]

The PV moving away from Greeland with height rises replacing it has definetely gained momentum in the last 24hrs, really looking forward to tomorrow's runs as I feel something is awaiting...

To the medium term, the PM incursion looking increasingly cold, with snow showers just about anywhere once the cold air gets established 

Edited January 11, 2018 by Panayiotis

[Daniel*]

48 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I know you shouldn't take precip charts too seriously when they're a week away, but how come they're showing snow showers right down to the south coast? The vibe I'm getting reading through this thread is that only hilly parts of the NW will see snow next week.

Really? That’s not really the case. North of Birmingham some snow falling snow is looking fairly certain accumulating thickly at higher elevations say above 250 meters to lower levels too, but not as much. Even in Bristol wintry showers a strong possibility at times, especially after dark. I don’t bother with precipitation charts until much closer however GFS is showing a threat of quite widespread wintry showers, one to watch into later next week. -6C uppers aren’t bad.. possible for wintriness in precip even in the S.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Daniel*

[FENDER.]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

..

Like a beating drum....

The transfer has been flagging-after the now almost mania talk of pm inflow!!

This evolution has had the eye for sometime, the eventual heights.....1st to greenland- then intrack to link of scandinavian heights..then a cut off scenario that tunes into continental/polar continental feed/flow..

And by this lapse of time our cold tap is running icy cold....

Keep your pm flow...i'll await winter REAL...?

Well you may be waiting quite a while lol.  Getting a decent easterly seems to be almost impossible these days.  And even if by some miracle one turns up, it usually only delivers to the se and east coast.   A pm flow on the other hand, as we saw a few weeks ago, can deliver the goods over a wide area, many parts of the midlands had 4 to 6 inches of lying snow, which stuck around for the best part of a week.  So in this part of the UK we will most certainly be keeping our pm flow, if of course we can get one .    

Edited January 11, 2018 by At least it will be mild

[Snowman.]

26 minutes ago, At least it will be mild said:

Well you may be waiting quite a while lol.  Getting a decent easterly seems to be almost impossible these days.  And even if by some miracle one turns up, it usually only delivers to the se and east coast.   A pm flow on the other hand, as we saw a few weeks ago, can deliver the goods over a wide area, many parts of the midlands had 4 to 6 inches of lying snow, which stuck around for the best part of a week.  So in this part of the UK we will most certainly be keeping our pm flow, if of course we can get one .    

That was a slider not shower activity.

[BlackburnChris]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

if your talking GFS, they have a significant bias towards snow on the ppn type, particularly with nw or w winds as well, if they would have verified the last 10 years, I would have had some serious snowfall!!

been showing it siince last monday mind you

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS appear to be a smidgen colder at day 6 than the 18z suite...

Specks of -6 showing now on the ensemble mean chart

This isn't a bad mean pressure anomaly chart to have at day 8

Edited January 11, 2018 by CreweCold

[Banbury]

Certainly some interesting charts on show 

[swfc]

Morning. After the initial push from the nw ete the ridging in the atlantic is "has nick alluded to"is important. The low existing the esb could be a ball breaker in regards to sustainable heights in the nortn and north east.Interesting going forward mo wise if still know guarantee of anything exceptional cold wise

[snowice]

Gem UKmo Gfs looking Even  better than yesterdays runs now. Cold PM flow someone's going to get a lot of snow. The uppers seem to be droping with each run

 

[northwestsnow]

GFS seems to be upgrading now- GEFS also look pretty good too

 

 

[snowice]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS seems to be upgrading now- GEFS also look pretty good too

 

 

ECM 120 not as good but it seems to be on its own.? Edit 144 is colder.! 

Edited January 11, 2018 by snowice

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM IN MILD SECTOR ALERT.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM IN MILD SECTOR ALERT.

???

 Really? The 850s are an upgrade at 144!!

[shaky]

This ecm at 144 hours is much better than yesterdays 12z!!trough digs further south and that shortwave out in the atlantic is less deep!!very good start to the day so far!!