Model output discussion - mid-winter

[shaky]

Game set and match this morning!!horrible downgrade!!make the most of the next 72 hours!!got a horrible feeling aint gona see snow for the rest of january!thank god for the 4 snow events in december!!

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Game set and match this morning!!horrible downgrade!!make the most of the next 72 hours!!got a horrible feeling aint gona see snow for the rest of january!thank god for the 4 snow events in december!!

You managed to fit nine exclamation marks into that one line post, quite an achievement. I hardly see how the next fourteen days is set in stone, have you not seen how the output has flip flopped over the course of the last week? It has gone from cold to mild to cold and now back to mild again. Hardly fills one with confidence of output past 4 or 5 days, and even then I'd be uncertain. Look at how the storm has been handled.

[Timmytour]

37 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yep, the fact were on the same page as 10 hours ago speaks volumes...solid agreement of an Icelandic low dominating in the ops this morning...only a few days ago all roads led to a very cold outlook, how they have changed! Hopefully that Russian high will move off the scene pretty quick to allow the vortex to transfer east and give Feb a chance...

 

 

ECM day 9 and day 10 average...

 

What do you make of it Spock?

It's blocking Jim, but not as we like to know it.

[carinthian]

Latest fax at 84h has cold air in place for much of the UK . Note the first ripple along the warm front. This Atlantic warm front in going to come up against some solid cold in place by Sunday . Our latest snow model shows some impressive snow accumulations in the NE of England during Sunday. Should get a firmer update later this morning.  Regarding the model outputs this morning, look no further than 96h as high uncertainty  remains regarding transient progress of mild into cold (aka ) to NE., That's the latest view from over here but will report back later.

C

. 

Edited January 17, 2018 by carinthian

[Seasonality]

Just now, carinthian said:

Latest fax at 84h has cold air in place for much of the UK . Note the first ripple along the warm front. This Atlantic warm front in going to come up against some solid cold in place by Sunday . Our latest snow model shows some impressive snow accumulations in the NE of England. Should get a firmer update later this morning.  Regarding the model outputs this morning, look no further than 96h as high uncertainty  remains regarding transient progress of mild into cold (aka ) to NE., That's the latest view from over here but will get another update later this morning.

. 

Indeed. The progress of mild into cold is often poorly modelled outside of the reliable. Let us see how the next couple of days output pans out.

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest fax at 84h has cold air in place for much of the UK . Note the first ripple along the warm front. This Atlantic warm front in going to come up against some solid cold in place by Sunday . Our latest snow model shows some impressive snow accumulations in the NE of England during Sunday.Should get a firmer update later this morning.  Regarding the model outputs this morning, look no further than 96h as high uncertainty  remains regarding transient progress of mild into cold (aka ) to NE., That's the latest view from over here but will report back later.

C

. 

Forgot to add this latest shot from the village. Quess what ?, just for you snow lovers, its snowing again, another 10cm added this morning. Currently -5c. Get yourselves over here !

C

Edited January 17, 2018 by carinthian

[Chesil View]

Just now, Steve Edgefield said:

Would be very interesting to hear GP's further thoughts this morning given the overnight runs which appear to be coming together towards a more mobile and westerly dominated spell next week.  The EC signal from yesterday has disappeared. Others have mentioned that Nina conditions are interfering and sometimes over-riding other teleconnevtive signals.  I'm wondering whether we are continuing to see this played out and hence the current output.

Its one set of runs in a situation where GP also suggested the models would have. tendency to over do the westerly influence. The problem with following every operational run as though it is gospel will always give mixed results and emotions as suggested longer term outcomes come and go Its better to take the whole suite, ensembles included:before making a judgement believe last nights ECM de bilt ensembles were pretty evenly split between easterly and westerly outcomes later on. So still a knife edge in terms of the longer range outcomes I would say.

[Daniel*]

In extended GEFS are really quite interesting I’ve noticed the amplification rise for a few days now. This suite has the greatest appetite I’ve seen seen for it, so far - let’s hope it builds further.

[nick sussex]

A poor start to the day for coldies with less blocking to the east .

To add insult to injury the ECM picks one of the warmest solutions from day 4 for its op.

Quite a split as early as Sunday which would be in relation to how shortwave energy disrupts se.

Unfortunately at that range the op should really be better at handling that.

Although the models seem to agree in the medium term direction of travel you can see by comparing their respective outputs that there are still some differences earlier.

If you’re looking for a few crumbs this suggests the handling of that shortwave energy still seems to be causing some problems.

The biggest problem upstream though is lack of amplitude and lack of trough disruption.

 

[markw2680]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Game set and match this morning!!horrible downgrade!!make the most of the next 72 hours!!got a horrible feeling aint gona see snow for the rest of january!thank god for the 4 snow events in december!!

Why say some comments? I really don’t get how you can say game over!! Do the models not change drastically on a daily basis? The last time I checked it was middle of January not start of March etc. These kind of knee jerk comments really don’t help things do they

Edited January 17, 2018 by markw2680
Mistake

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Forgot to add this latest shot from the village. Quess what ?, just for you snow lovers, its snowing again, another 10cm added this morning. Currently -5c. Get yourselves over here !

C

In Ischgl towards end of Feb so hoping the same thing is happening there. And hope it hangs on!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended wet in the north drier in the south

[MR EXTREMES]

2 hours ago, Steve Edgefield said:

Would be very interesting to hear GP's further thoughts this morning given the overnight runs which appear to be coming together towards a more mobile and westerly dominated spell next week.  The EC signal from yesterday has disappeared. Others have mentioned that Nina conditions are interfering and sometimes over-riding other teleconnevtive signals.  I'm wondering whether we are continuing to see this played out and hence the current output.

Must admit it's awful across the board.

It would seem la Nina ruining southern England chances of winter.

Azores ridge flat into spain area.

Can't see a way out neither can northern crew with there 1ft of snow so pretty spectacular for them.

Polar vortex under slight attack but running through the models would seem quickly recovers to maintain the mobile weather type.

Maybe February then.......

[geordiekev]

2 hours ago, shaky said:

Game set and match this morning!!horrible downgrade!!make the most of the next 72 hours!!got a horrible feeling aint gona see snow for the rest of january!thank god for the 4 snow events in december!!

Shaky, you really are like a stuck record with the term game set and match. I'm sure you mentioned this before this current turnaround and every other downgrade of recent.

Here's a link to the tennis club rules as I'm not sure you have a grasp of tournament rules. Tournament over, I doubt it and you know it.

https://www.queensclub.co.uk/club_rules

[Duane S.]

Beyond this current cold zonality spell, I would agree with the more negative posts of this morning, absolutely no chance of cold until into Feb at least.

If (and only IF) you base your views solely on the day-to-day, run-to-run operationals...

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Beyond this current cold zonality spell, I would agree with the more negative posts of this morning, absolutely no chance of cold until into Feb at least.

If (and only IF) you base your views solely on the day-to-day, run-to-run operationals...

The ensembles don't look good this morning either though, although haven't seen the ext eps yet.

[Paul_1978]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ensembles don't look good this morning either though, although haven't seen the ext eps yet.

There is a post further up from @Daniel*about extended GEFS indicating amplification. Not sure if "extended eps" and "extended gefs" are different or the same?

Notwithstanding, the output as it stands isn't pretty at the moment. Will have to look back at @Glacier Point's post regarding developments elsewhere to see if there is anything to be looking out for in the coming days.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

There is a post further up from @Daniel*about extended GEFS indicating amplification. Not sure if "extended eps" and "extended gefs" are different or the same?

Notwithstanding, the output as it stands isn't pretty at the moment. Will have to look back at @Glacier Point's post regarding developments elsewhere to see if there is anything to be looking out for in the coming days.

I only looked ath GEFS briefly in graph form and gone are those runs flatlining at the end of the run near to -10c 850hpa temps, so presuming the amplification has toned down that was bringing them.

[shaky]

23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Beyond this current cold zonality spell, I would agree with the more negative posts of this morning, absolutely no chance of cold until into Feb at least.

If (and only IF) you base your views solely on the day-to-day, run-to-run operationals...

Thats my point mate just saying what the models are showing right now!!!!its just a dire situation we in right now!!and even if we do get snow in february it aint gona have the same punch as it does in december or january as sun will be higher up in the sky!!especially mid to late feb!!06z continues the slide further!!

[mulzy]

Looks like the winter killer (AZH) is in full prominence as we head into next week.  I think we just have to grin and bear it.  Like I have said before, first two weeks of Feb could be positive as the Strat and MJO come to our aid.  Time will tell as ever...

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

A poor start to the day for coldies with less blocking to the east .....

The biggest problem upstream though is lack of amplitude and lack of trough disruption.

I tend to agree Nick with your assessment, however nearly every cold spell this season has arisen from a short spell of mild which seems to change the game. Any run that shows 2 continuous weeks of mild or cold will be wrong, based on this Winters current trends I would have thought.

But yes things could look better in FI, which really isn't much beyond 72hrs going on recent outputs, so the faith needs kept.

[geordiekev]

14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

As it stands not an awful lot to get excited about in the models...  You Northerners....mud huts

C'mon matey, don't sink to those levels.

One person's downgrade is another's upgrade.

[Chesil View]

Just now, shaky said:

Thats my point mate just saying what the models are showing right now!!!!its just a dire situation we in right now!!and even if we do get snow in february it aint gona have the same punch as it does in december or january as sun will be higher up in the sky!!especially mid to late feb!!06z continues the slide further!!

mmmmn......That sun being higher in the sky didn't seem to make much difference in Feb 78 Feb 79 Feb 86 Feb91 Feb 94 Feb 96 Feb 2009 Down here Shaky

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Early indications show yet another mild start to February, what some people living on the coasts in the south call their 'snowy month', when the sea temperatures reach their coldest and the sun is not too strong. Let's hope it will be a cold, snowy month this year instead of a mild stormy one. There is talk of an SSW by the end of January so there's hope! 

[karyo]

11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Looks like the winter killer (AZH) is in full prominence as we head into next week.  I think we just have to grin and bear it.  Like I have said before, first two weeks of Feb could be positive as the Strat and MJO come to our aid.  Time will tell as ever...

Yes, that's a horrible sight!

I am not sure about the MJO but the stratospheric warming has been downgraded substantially in the last few days and doesn't seem to make any real impact to the vortex. We may have to rely on other factors for a cold spell in Feb.