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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

Not sure what to make of this mean at t-300, looks nice enough but would it again leave us in no mans land ? 

F3F2115B-9C70-429E-BD41-4A20CFD9F0E0.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, Weather toad said:

Not sure what to make of this mean at t-300, looks nice enough but would it again leave us in no mans land ? 

F3F2115B-9C70-429E-BD41-4A20CFD9F0E0.png

To my untrained eye that could possibly leave us in a prime battleground position for whatever the Atlantic wants to throw at us? Potential slider after slider?

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
7 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

Not sure what to make of this mean at t-300, looks nice enough but would it again leave us in no mans land ? 

F3F2115B-9C70-429E-BD41-4A20CFD9F0E0.png

The De Bilt ensemble has around 40% of members going for a easterly, last week of this month, the rest sw

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
13 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

To my untrained eye that could possibly leave us in a prime battleground position for whatever the Atlantic wants to throw at us? Potential slider after slider?

Strange set of temp anomaly charts for the same time frame, 850’s look above but surface cold stagnant air. Looks like a grey, drab easterly. 56F3E5AC-B2FA-4849-9B93-0E3E8D100311.thumb.png.e02f519fa366f6431e69384d93ea5cb2.png

2B36DFAA-CB6B-44B4-B159-1E0CBA8F65C9.png

Edited by Weather toad
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Here's hoping the ecm 12z does not verify (not that it will anyway). The last thing we want is to be chasing toothless easterlies with little chance of verifying. Hoping for something far better than that even if we have to wait a wee bit longer. Certainly not the most positive afternoon and evenings model watching from a coldies perspective that's for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Icon 18z lookin interesting for the weekend!!stronger push of scandinavian high and trough desruption around the uk!!pushed back further west compared to 12z!hopefully a sign of things to come with the gfs 18z!!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Might be speaking too soon but its game over already at 66 hours on the 18z gfs!!low not as deep eastern united states and less amplification in the atlantic already!!aaah sums up a rubbish day so far!!lets hope for a miracle in the morning!!

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

storm 'Fionn' is now re-named storm 'Feeble'. i've had stronger farts!

ukgust-6.thumb.png.0e790396998caf1686293475b7f1fa1f.png

 

But are they as smelly, or silent but deadly?

18z coming out, how many shots has it had?! Storm not looking as bad as it looked 5 days ago thank goodness

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

that russian high is a monster-

gfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.3f91916c5a0775fb1f4c23a1e21ae400.png

1060mb

We can but pray it meets up with that area of heights opposite and it sends the PV into a tizz!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In terms of the longer range the outcome which we daren't mention still showing in De Bilt. 

A clear divergence in wind clusters between east/ne and more southerly. The separation starting around the 25th.

Earlier still a possibility of some snow off that shortwave from day 4, models trying to take some energy se wards and and there’s sufficient cold to the east that any surface flow from east/se into that could deliver.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In terms of the longer range the outcome which we daren't mention still showing in De Bilt. 

A clear divergence in wind clusters between east/ne and more southerly. The separation starting around the 25th.

Earlier still a possibility of some snow off that shortwave from day 4, models trying to take some energy se wards and and there’s sufficient cold to the east that any surface flow from east/se into that could deliver.

 

It’s around 25% nick for the 25th but by the 27th an upper Scandi  ridge is 50/50 according to the eps clusters. That’s a big swing from the 00z suite which never really developed a cut off upper ridge 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

More people live in the south, hence more members from here, hence more discussion + the fact it's not that uncommon for northern England to get snow really, we haven't had lying snow in 4/5 years some of us.

not many comments on the 18z, can't look at charts tonight so can only assume it's a car crash 

It's an uncertain picture - as ever - emerging from the 18z.

image.thumb.png.fca9084c8b0f7a8f7501a3cc2d6b8345.png or image.thumb.png.e8057e4eff1339f807f995e95153a3c5.png

On the face of it not inspiring but tantalisingly interesting !

Mind you Boris sums up the general theme

image.png.2f196a18084160d6ae5ae6144ca53b3f.png

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles D12 - hopelessly split

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011612_288.

But that's good news isn't it - 50 / 50 spilt at D12.

EDIT : just seen BA's post, knew someone would have flagged it up - just got back from the pub.

 

Just seen London graph - distinctive split although not mny brutally cold but building blocks and all that.......

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
19 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Agree 100% if it was further south n still might be this thread would be bouncing, but the mods will delete our posts anyway, so don't bother stick to the regional, a lovely covering of snow outside as we speak 

The mods delete your posts because you are not discussing the models? There is snow thappening NOW, why would anyone from the north be in the mod thread discussing it? When the snow events actually happen everyone goes to their regional threads and this thread often quietens down, it's normal netweather stuff.

FACT is longer term and mid term there's little to no interest snow wise for the majority, hence fourth a lack of posts and interest in the models, it's not rocket science.

 

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Big snow even on Sunday according to GFS 18z, focused on Scotland, Northern England and the North Midlands. Definitely one to watch in the coming days. 

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

It's always the north that gets the action which is crazy when u think about it in miles it's a drop in the ocean world wise yet makes the difference between locations getting snow and some getting rain. The crazy British Isles. I guess this only makes the situation more unbearable and irritating for southerners like myself I'm afraid. Uppers are shown to cover us so I never get why it's never snow if and when it does arrive. GFS toys with the idea of SOME in the offing during the next few days. We'll see ....

Edited by snowfish1
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
1 hour ago, Boro Snow said:

Agree 100% if it was further south n still might be this thread would be bouncing, but the mods will delete our posts anyway, so don't bother stick to the regional, a lovely covering of snow outside as we speak 

Nobody bothers discussing the current weather in this forum, it's always been about model output, as in computer simulated future weather discussion. When it's snowing in your back garden it's usually discussed in the appropriate regional thread. Besides there's contributors from all parts of the UK and Ireland, as well as elsewhere in Europe  posting on here, so this north, south bias doesn't actually exist.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Hello;

As has been said on here, if you want to talk about the snow falling in your back yard then please post it in the relevant regional thread, same goes for moaning about the lack of snow. Can we please avoid having these posts put in this thread please as this is reserved for model discussion. A load of posts have been hidden from overnight so can we please behave. Also again there is no need to get shirty with anyone else on here so keep it civil.

Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Dire output from the models this morning if it's cold your after. Slowly and quietly the models have down graded the Atlantic ridge and reverted to the dross they were showing last weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Yep, the fact were on the same page as 10 hours ago speaks volumes...solid agreement of an Icelandic low dominating in the ops this morning...only a few days ago all roads led to a very cold outlook, how they have changed! Hopefully that Russian high will move off the scene pretty quick to allow the vortex to transfer east and give Feb a chance...

 

 

ECM day 9 and day 10 average...

 

ECMOPEU00_192_1-6.png

EUROPE_PRMSL_240.jpg

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk/Southampton
  • Location: North Norfolk/Southampton
21 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

I think we will look back at January's H500 anomaly and think how on earth was it not a frigid month ?

Lack of cold pooling to our east doesn't seem so much of a potential barrier this time round, so is the EC op correct or more appropriately in the right ball park ?

Looking at today's MJO synthesised plot, we are already in a phase 4 / 5 transition and heading towards phase 6.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.thumb.jpg.8897e7d4e56454f10e2ebe9c66b66fb9.jpg

EC looks much closer to the mark on this, the GEFS dragging its heals a bit (low angular momentum bias?). 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.thumb.gif.b50450ac9e09a451c8cf017d7a16df07.gifNCPE_phase_21m_full.thumb.gif.ccce772cac6d630fb9a0edd4d9d574d5.gif

Angular momentum, as expected, showing an upward trend. The key questions being the rate of injection of westerlies arising from the tropical wave shifting eastwards, and extratropical interaction.

gfsgwo_1.thumb.jpg.d4569e2284b2135ff206853345768c31.jpg

I suspect GEFS is too slow, EC closer to the mark on the tropics so we must assume more westerlies than being shown by the GFS products, and therefore greater prospect of more amplification commencing day 7 onwards as the GWO is shifted closer to a phase 4 transition.

Interestingly GFS angular momentum shows a slowing of the westerly flow at mid latitudes from day 7. That's potential eddy signal which Scandinavian ridges are made of.

gfs1.thumb.jpg.ba1f778c6c8da77ab8761e1b5694aaee.jpg

Looking further ahead, we continue to see eastward migration of the MJO and every chance that it will enter phases 7 and 8 during early February. Synoptically, cold signal still there so getting some cold over or close to our shores will be crucial.

So bottom line is I'm much more enthused by the EC signal albeit with some reduced strength from 12z EPS compared to last time around.

Would be very interesting to hear GP's further thoughts this morning given the overnight runs which appear to be coming together towards a more mobile and westerly dominated spell next week.  The EC signal from yesterday has disappeared. Others have mentioned that Nina conditions are interfering and sometimes over-riding other teleconnevtive signals.  I'm wondering whether we are continuing to see this played out and hence the current output.

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