Model output discussion - mid-winter

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

ECM has it exiting Ireland around Dublin

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/sea-level-pressure/20180117-2100z.html 

Yup and then probably head south east from there over to the wash area!!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup and then probably head south east from there over to the wash area!!

Exits uk around Hull

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup and then probably head south east from there over to the wash area!!

Euro 4 around the same. Gives the north of England a lot of the white stuff 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Chuffing hell! 

[bluearmy]

Just now, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Chuffing hell! 

Please stop posting individual cold ens members ! 

Seriosuly, there is always a decent cold member on every run and you will just get folk excited ! 

better to post a picture of a yellow wall as that’s calming ..........

[bluearmy]

The trough extension over the n Atlantic looks different on the ec 12z and won’t allow same ridge day 5/6 

stand down the progressive easterly alert. 

Edited January 16, 2018 by bluearmy

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Chuffing hell! 

And the point of posting one member of a ensemble set at day 16 is?

[Daniel*]

One impressive anticyclone 1070mb on a separate note I cant see this going the way of 00z..

[nick sussex]

The ECM still different upstream at T144hrs .

Canadian high pressure and much slower with the shortwave crossing the southern Plains.

Much depends Now on whether the upstream trough sharpens up at T168 hrs in response to the more amplified upstream pattern.

Edited January 16, 2018 by nick sussex

[Mucka]

Not sure what is going on with ECM the last few weeks, it has been abysmal even if the NH stats say otherwise.

[igloo]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The trough extension over the n Atlantic looks different on the ec 12z and won’t allow same ridge day 5/6 

yes no undercut at 120h on this run so goodbye to our phantom easterly like earlier you just never no what the ECM does run to run over the past fortnight it has been pants this run looks finally going the same way as the rest as flat as a pancake that is

[Troubleatmill]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Note convinced that it was meant to be serious but in response to upyour post where does it end?

thats model output for end next week. I could fill pages on here with charts like that from Chinese, Indian , Brazilian models.  We do need to self regulate a bit ?? 

Although there is a definate trend on the GEFS overall for either a MLB over us or a HLB to our North or NW. But as you say, it means little at the mo as it can be dropped as quickly as it has been picked up.

[Daniel*]

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry it would be hard getting out of that. Classic +NAO signature.

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry it would be hard getting out of that. Classic +NAO signature.

I wouldn't do either to be honest. Models are in a variety of ways. Everything needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and humor at the moment if you ask me, the ECM shows the amount of uncertainty by two polar opposite runs this morning and this evening

[Purga]

Caution:

Some of the following scenes may contain upsetting images.

There may be a NW helpline for any viewers personally affected by the issues graphcally shown above......

Edited January 16, 2018 by Purga

[Paul]

Perhaps, as @bluearmy suggests, posts cherry picking single cold ensemble members would be better in the ramping (banter) thread, as that's essentially what they are, unless those charts are also accompanied by other discussion to provide some reasoning as to why they may come off, as opposed to them just looking nice from a cold perspective.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

I wouldn't do either to be honest. Models are in a variety of ways. Everything needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and humor at the moment if you ask me, the ECM shows the amount of uncertainty by two polar opposite runs this morning and this evening

Dry humour with my post.  & well I guess it was to be expected with ECM 00z op an outlier. Mm I’m just starting to feel this winter is not going to deliver. I think it’s been a good one in Scotland..

[mulzy]

Slight retrogression of the big Siberian High at day 9 on the ECMWF - probably lead to nothing but it is a player going forward for sure.

More suns needed! 

Edited January 16, 2018 by mulzy

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Slight retrogression of the big Siberian High at day 9 on the ECMWF - probably lead to nothing but it is a player going forward for sure.

More suns needed! 

That run sits ok in the eps - shame. The Russian high does edge west in the extended but we also have the gefs promoting amplification closer to home so week 2 presents a lot of questions. 

[nick sussex]

The ECM drops its super tease but for good measure and to make sure its viewing figures  don't slide it brings the Russian high further west at T216hrs!

It's beginning to resemble one of those Z list celebs on Big Brother. Attention seeking with little substance, be gone with you ECM!

Anyway after my mini rant, this evolution is possible but whether this easterly tease ever bears fruition only time will tell.

To be honest I'm bored of them! Its like the constant trailer for a film which shows the good bits, turn up and you realize the two minutes of good trailer was it.

[SMU]

Evening All 

The 12z > 00z ECM Mix articulates well why there was a 50/50 split for debilt in the T2Ms earlier...

Weather is fascinating in terms of how much the overall pattern is impacted by the shortwave pattern.

I believe the next 72 hours modelling will be the definitive signature to dictating our ever lasting impression on Winter 17/18-

As ever it will boil down to energy distribution / initial amplification & where the energy closes off allowing for high pressure to build over the top- The GFS ensembles are generally late to the party here. UKMO a better guide as is ‘generally’ the ECM-

The 144-192 evolution will revolve around where the energy goes once the low closes off -

UKMO 12z 144 / ECM 00z 144 show the scenario we are searching for

note All amplification is forced over the block- so UKMO 144 not as good as the 00z ECM but similar to ECM control-

 

Now the 12z ECM ( just remember how progressive it has been on MANY OCCASIONS) takes the energy NE

like the GFS ens....

So There you have it - All or nothing with the runs tonight-

Forecast still favours a southerly closed low like the UKMO

I also like the site of that Russian 1070MB high...

 

High model shannon Entropy tonight with divergence @120-

S

 

 

[shaky]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All 

The 12z > 00z ECM Mix articulates well why there was a 50/50 split for debilt in the T2Ms earlier...

Weather is fascinating in terms of how much the overall pattern is impacted by the shortwave pattern.

I believe the next 72 hours modelling will be the definitive signature to dictating our ever lasting impression on Winter 17/18-

As ever it will boil down to energy distribution / initial amplification & where the energy closes off allowing for high pressure to build over the top- The GFS ensembles are generally late to the party here. UKMO a better guide as is ‘generally’ the ECM-

The 144-192 evolution will revolve around where the energy goes once the low closes off -

UKMO 12z 144 / ECM 00z 144 show the scenario we are searching for

note All amplification is forced over the block- so UKMO 144 not as good as the 00z ECM but similar to ECM control-

 

Now the 12z ECM ( just remember how progressive it has been on MANY OCCASIONS) takes the energy NE

like the GFS ens....

So There you have it - All or nothing with the runs tonight-

Forecast still favours a southerly closed low like the UKMO

I also like the site of that Russian 1070MB high...

 

High model shannon Entropy tonight with divergence @120-

S

 

 

Steve would the ecm show a snow event across the uk at 120 hours like the gfs does!!although gfs is mainly wales and west midlands!!

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve would the ecm show a snow event across the uk at 120 hours like the gfs does!!although gfs is mainly wales and west midlands!!

Yes but less pronounced - 

I would wait 24 hours for a more refined track-

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Caution:

Some of the following scenes may contain upsetting images.

There may be a NW helpline for any viewers personally affected by the issues graphcally shown above......

Reminds me a tad....just a tad though, of how a particular winter whose name I shall not mention here once evolved in mid Jan before developing into....nah it can't can it?

[Chesil View]

21 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Reminds me a tad....just a tad though, of how a particular winter whose name I shall not mention here once evolved in mid Jan before developing into....nah it can't can it?

Yes Timmytour I was just thinking the same thing. lol

chart for 17th an 1947 jet heading northeast over the euro high.

Three days later the snowiest winter since 1815 started.

Its as easy as that. lol

Edited January 16, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard