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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

 I cannot! see the Easterly on gfs again ,maybe it’s time to move on from from this Easterly saga,that’s not going to happen 

 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
Just now, Daniel* said:

GFS 12Z offers a transient widespread snow event late Saturday into Sunday.

6AD70E68-95C3-4078-A6C4-1EF0E1A984BD.thumb.png.63d60cdadb4c31232be7916365b3c732.pngF11C1F66-1B17-4334-BCB4-70DF0B7E525A.thumb.png.2249dd2950035dd0b234825c6890c61b.png

Away from the Western parts of Wales, which is where I am! Showers here today have been intense but upper air temps too high! So it's been sleety! Not holding out for anything else now! If it were to stall however.....

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Away from the Western parts of Wales, which is where I am! Showers here today have been intense but upper air temps too high! So it's been sleety! Not holding out for anything else now! If it were to stall however.....

There are 6 hour intervals so it’s probable some of the areas which show up as rain also see it start of as snow.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 I cannot! see the Easterly on gfs again ,maybe it’s time to move on from from this Easterly saga,that’s not going to happen 

 

 

I wouldn't be brave enough to say anything is or isn't going to happen the way the models are changing of late, especially in FI.

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N/A Apprentice

N/A

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

Away from the Western parts of Wales, which is where I am! Showers here today have been intense but upper air temps too high! So it's been sleety! Not holding out for anything else now! If it were to stall however.....

Snow-wise I doubt but intense hail showers in Saundersfoot turned the beach white temporarily earlier on! GFS 12z has these hefty showers continuing until the early hours across much of coastal Wales, I'm enjoying them lol 

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted (edited)

Evening, both GFS and UKMO outwardly look to have a shortwave development to the NW of the British Isles at 120h Both I think are struggling how the synoptics will development beyond this stage as the cold air to the NE looks to be holding on a bit longer. So I think these 2 models are to progressive beyond 120h. See if ECM morning run has any consistency this evening .

 C

Edited by carinthian
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Notice the lack of comments in the GFS... understandably ? I'm shocked people have the energy to keep chasing these inevitable failed easterlies

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Notice the lack of comments in the GFS... understandably ? I'm shocked people have the energy to keep chasing these inevitable failed easterlies

There are hints of pressure  intensifying on ukmo from Russia,but miles away from reaching UK.

People going to chase these winter easterlies till spring ,when they will probably verify then :D

Edited by SLEETY
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Rukm1441.gif

Looks half-okay to me; you have the split away of a LP to follow the southern jet arm into Europe but it still looks too flat upstream.

GFS trying to find a way to meet the criteria of sending something along the southern arm but using the weakest possible feature with the northern arm heavily favoured.

The 00z ECM appeared to have hardly a northern arm going on at all, with the majority of the jet stream heading SE into Europe.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I think the lower 850 temps have been delayed. GFS only shows -7C temperatures getting across at 7pm.

Yes just looked at the GEFS mean.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Because it will go the same way as the snow I'm supposed to be getting now, my area had the heavy snow symbol showing practically every hour from the middle of the night onwards for about 36 hours yesterday, so far 12 hours have elapsed and how much lying snow do I have - a big fat 0. - told everyone this would be a dampd squib below 1000ft.

Not really it is conducive to snow, & there will be snowfall on the northern flank of this system that is guaranteed. Counties like Yorkshire look to be well placed ICON has it the most south from what I can see.

A26DE6E1-8239-4CA0-AC42-7D800F897FAE.thumb.jpeg.7f7f91f6c63e42ffc4c1bb204d6ebe7a.jpeg

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
Posted

Lots of snow in my backyard type posts in here this evening, I've just moved a bunch into the banter thread, but they'd be equally well suited to the regional threads.

Also don't forget that there is a short-range model thread here:

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The GFS and UKMO have had 12hrs to think about the ECM 00hr evolution and aren't interested.

Neither try and build that more amplified Canadian upto T144hrs high so its all a bit of a mystery.

We'll know soon whether its another ECM wild goose chase.

Overall this evening we've seen the Russian high look good but the pattern is too far east, it might still though help to stop the Euro trough from shooting off too far east.

We're not seeing enough trough disruption from either the GFS or UKMO.

In terms of the earlier ECM run putting aside the issue that its an outlier, if you're going to move forward you'd want that evolution with that separate high over Scandi  and not just an extension of the Russian high because that might look good but the UK is always at the weakest end and that's what happened in February 2012.

Anyway not long to wait to find out whether the ECM will continue on its merry way or whether it hits the buffers.

 

 

 

 

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

understandably, there will be a lot of scepticism in the model output at the moment but i think there is a surprise in store for this winter. models are playing around with the idea at the moment but we could see a firmer idea appearing, courtesy of the siberian high and ironically, the azores high.

gfsnh-0-288-2.thumb.png.8314f0326ec91319e487a9e56188fd2c.png

ECH1-240-20.thumb.gif.cd5f2ed250be0ef3c510ecb4fbf92925.gif

after initially benign or even mild weather, we could well end up with significant pressure rises just to our north east or even north west first. yes, i'm talking about a greenland high or scandi or both. along with all the fun associated with them.....

 

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ACCOUNT DELETED Enthusiast

ACCOUNT DELETED

Posted
Posted

GFS 12z and the severe gales have been toned down but still going to be a rough few hours especially around the Bristol & English Channel coasts with 60-70mph gusts for a short period. This will be accompanied by heavy, squally rain and also fairly high Spring tides but not quite as high as they were during the first week of January storms, nevertheless there'll still be a risk of coastal flooding  

image.png

image.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

As much as I took the Micky this morning with regards to the ecm, the far reaches of the gfs have shown heights in our area for the last couple of days. I have noticed before that if the output keeps churning out models with strong heights in "good/bad" areas in fi they may just be picking up a signal that the detail has yet to be agreed on. This has caught my eye over the last couple of days. The chart shown is the latest but if you look through the previous runs, gfs, recently you will see this on numerous occasions. 

Ecm may well have been on its own but is it playing with a signal for heights to build on around our part of the world? 

 

 

IMG_0385.PNG

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted
10 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

GFS 12z and the severe gales have been toned down but still going to be a rough few hours especially around the Bristol & English Channel coasts with 60-70mph gusts for a short period. This will be accompanied by heavy, squally rain and also fairly high Spring tides but not quite as high as they were during the first week of January storms, nevertheless there'll still be a risk of coastal flooding  

image.png

image.png

image.png

Definite downgrade trend happening now with this system.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if it ends up being just a typical wind maker this time tomorrow or moves so far south the centre ends up over the channel.

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm even less deeep than the gfs!!!good stuff could do without the horrible wind!!

It's difficult to see how south the low/wave is on the ecm. 

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It's difficult to see how south the low/wave is on the ecm. 

Rough estimate would be around north east anglia!!around the wash!!!but much less deep for defo!!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It's difficult to see how south the low/wave is on the ecm. 

 

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Rough estimate would be around north east anglia!!around the wash!!!but much less deep for defo!!

ECM has it exiting Ireland around Dublin

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/sea-level-pressure/20180117-2100z.html 

Edited by karlos1983
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