Model output discussion - mid-winter

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good way or bad way gp

Good - ridge to the North much further west (icelanndic) rather than too far scandi advertised strongly.

Edited January 16, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Purga]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good way or bad way gp

Go compare (in my best operatic voice )

Trending colder short / medium, milder extended.

[Panayiotis]

6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Go compare (in my best operatic voice )

Trending colder short / medium, milder extended.

You've posted the wrong chart for the 06Z, that's yesterday's 

[ukpaul]

5 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

You've posted the wrong chart for the 06Z, that's yesterday's 

The correct one

[Devonshire]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No scientific links to post but all the info is out there eg spaceweather etc as most are besotted by AGW science.  Folk normally round up on us as crack pots who think that solar/lunar effects have any control over our weather

I am definitely in the camp that appreciates solar/lunar (have to be careful about saying 'extra-terrestrial'!) influences on climate and weather - I am just interested that a couple of times you have made a comment on this thread about strong solar wind and it's upcoming effect on our weather patterns and I wondered what was behind this. Maybe someone has done research looking at arrival of solar wind and co-incident (I am not saying coincidental!) changes in model trends and patterns. If this is 'out-there' it would be useful in interpreting the model outputs. Maybe in the not too distant future we will be considering solar activity (current and far-side/incoming) as teleconnections - and maybe they will be factored into (some of) the models?

Edited January 16, 2018 by Devonshire
making model-thread-relevance explicit!

[Summer Sun]

Huge differences at t168 on the 00z's

GFS and UKMO are both unsettled whilst ECM has high pressure over the UK

[karlos1983]

A lot of spread in the ens. I get the distinct feeling we will be seeing some very interesting output in the coming days! 

*Stomps off to check P8*

Edited January 16, 2018 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

A lot of spread in the ens. I get the distinct feeling we will be seeing some very interesting output in the coming days! 

*Stomps off to check P8*

As they always say: where there's spread there's hope!

[Snowmadsam]

2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

ah, cheers Sam.....I wasn't sure what you meant, and at that time of the morning, the best I can muster is 3 question marks....lol

Don't worry! I was only awake because the dog was barking, and thought I may as well check! 

[trickydicky]

delete

Edited January 16, 2018 by trickydicky
added in error

[Purga]

1 hour ago, Panayiotis said:

You've posted the wrong chart for the 06Z, that's yesterday's 

Oops apologies Panay - need to stop that bottle of sherry for breakfast...

Edited January 16, 2018 by Purga

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Chuffing hell! 

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Chuffing hell! 

On the other hand ......

 

[snowfish1]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

On the other hand ......

 

Oh I can't decide which I prefer 

[karlos1983]

ICON continues a southern shift by the looks of it , slightly weaker as well

 

06z12z

06z12z

06z12z

Edited January 16, 2018 by karlos1983

[sebastiaan1973]

Amazing EC control run this morning. http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/m0_luftdruck/20180128-1200z.html

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Amazing EC control run this morning. http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/m0_luftdruck/20180128-1200z.html

sub -11 850's widespread..... NICE!

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/m0_temperatur-850hpa/20180128-1200z.html

[shaky]

35 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ICON continues a southern shift by the looks of it , slightly weaker as well

 

06z12z

06z12z

06z12z

And guess what the gfs does the same thing and less deep aswell!!hmm getting interesting!

[karlos1983]

Just now, shaky said:

And guess what the gfs does the same thing and less deep aswell!!hmm getting interesting!

indeed... what storm...

 

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

indeed... what storm...

 

On a serious one though this is going back to what the models were showinh 4 days ago and sliding it through the midlands again!!

[weirpig]

And there is the pesky low.   A little south than previous run   Lets see how the ECM handles it

[weirpig]

And to compare  the Low on the ICON

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And there is the pesky low.   A little south than previous run   Lets see how the ECM handles it

Yes and unfortunately that pesky low brings an abrupt end to these awesome hail showers in South Wales which is temporarily turning the ground white and making it look wintry. Once this clears Thursday we'll be left with the plain old rain showers as this cold air doesn't return, in fact it's getting milder, up to 9-10C by Sunday so a short cold snap which I'm enjoying anyway 

[tight isobar]

We-are aligning nicely...

Gfs picking up the signal ??!!

Deep pooling and wrap should become modeling exact.

 

Edited January 16, 2018 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Hmmmm more enerrgy going south east through the uk at 120 hours!!