Model output discussion - mid-winter

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well you have to say there's a trend for NE heights, though no more than that...

Striking anomalies right out to 360.

Interesting evolution from w2 to week 3 as well with the ec32 run - atlantic running out of steam?

Edited January 15, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[jethro]

5 hours ago, 78/79 said:

Should be good  around Priddy, it's always an overcoat colder up there

Indeed and all being well, I shall be living there within the year :-)

[tight isobar]

Interest gaining..

18z gfs london ens..

A switch looks likely further -imo-..as momentum catches up.

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by tight isobar

[Markburgess7]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

At least it's not going t*ts up over here

i havn't posted the past week due to personal circumstances and have been a bit stressed of late with daughter issues(she was daignosed with ADHD/autism spectrum) and i am having trouble trying to deel with it of which is tough going and i am trying to get a shift change to try and get regular days so that i can be here more for her because my partner cannot cope with the abuse from her,we are trying to get help for this

anyway,from derailing this thread moreover i am sorry to come out with this as i am so emotional at the minute,so i will try and be more resolute to the models

in terms of this runner and i say this is that it ins't much different to a slider in terms of a trough to our north/northeast,the more the vigorous the trough to our NE the more forcing to the south of it,watch out for this as it will be key for this runner

early Dec proved this with the trough to the north and it came down to the wire as regards to the slider,models was struggling with this prior to the output just two days ahead and still ended further south than modeled,i wish i had the time to post the similarities but maybe i will do that tomorrow

meanwhile,tomorrow and into Wednesday will produce for some(elevation especially) but there could be a few surprises if the ppn is heavy enough or trough formation/streamers take hold

Wednesday/Thurday storm one to watch,happy viewing guys,stay safe.

Off the topic I know, its important for you to know they are lots of families out there with difficulties you are not alone, I have 2 sons with ADHD and the other ASD and other associated issues.  My eldest was a nightmare once he went to secondary school, it was hard but will the right support, got him through college, apprenticeship, now 21 a level 3 joiner, he still has blips, its how you manage the blips.

Getting the right support and help is important, feel free to contact me, if just to off load.

Back to the weather interesting times ahead again, after yesterday.

Thank you to posters who try to explain to us novices SM, Nick, Tight Isobars, BFTP. Wo79 etc

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

At least it's not going t*ts up over here

i havn't posted the past week due to personal circumstances and have been a bit stressed of late with daughter issues(she was daignosed with ADHD/autism spectrum) and i am having trouble trying to deel with it of which is tough going and i am trying to get a shift change to try and get regular days so that i can be here more for her because my partner cannot cope with the abuse from her,we are trying to get help for this

anyway,from derailing this thread moreover i am sorry to come out with this as i am so emotional at the minute,so i will try and be more resolute to the models

in terms of this runner and i say this is that it ins't much different to a slider in terms of a trough to our north/northeast,the more the vigorous the trough to our NE the more forcing to the south of it,watch out for this as it will be key for this runner

early Dec proved this with the trough to the north and it came down to the wire as regards to the slider,models was struggling with this prior to the output just two days ahead and still ended further south than modeled,i wish i had the time to post the similarities but maybe i will do that tomorrow

meanwhile,tomorrow and into Wednesday will produce for some(elevation especially) but there could be a few surprises if the ppn is heavy enough or trough formation/streamers take hold

Wednesday/Thurday storm one to watch,happy viewing guys,stay safe.

 

[SLEETY]

looks like we are miles away from a prolonged deep Easterly cold spell,

This week some people will have snow but I cant see anything after this week that's going to bring extended cold spell,from ANY model

Nothing in the met long range forecasts suggesting it either.

ANOTHER WINTER OF JUST CHASING RAINBOWS.....

[Duane S.]

Regards the midweek storm...

The expected shift south in the models occurred today. I wonder if maybe we’ve seen the final position come into focus a bit. Still subject to further shifts (south or north) but the 18z mean was fractionally north of the 12z after sliding south all day.

The current modelling of the runner looks about right now to my mind (probably end up being somewhere completely different)

00z mean

 

06z mean

 

12z mean

 

18z mean

[tight isobar]

How the suites have modeled the potential for thurs-storm..

Ranging from 00z-through to 18z.

Various snaps of possible outs...

Ecm/gfs/icon/arpege/jma/ukmo

A compare tomorrow will be very telling..

Although a southerly tack-format looks the form horse!

Will do deep analysis compare tomorrow for 0z/6z/12z..

As by then the options will be very limited...but worthy of decipher-as to weather in certain location!!!

Edit;..and for matter of mention, im still of that want-of an, eventual chanel feature...with a dutch-belgium exit point...lets see?!!!

Edited January 16, 2018 by tight isobar

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

looks like we are miles away from a prolonged deep Easterly cold spell,

This week some people will have snow but I cant see anything after this week that's going to bring extended cold spell,from ANY model

Nothing in the met long range forecasts suggesting it either.

ANOTHER WINTER OF JUST CHASING RAINBOWS.....

Really?? You honestly think we are miles away from it? I certainly don’t.

I think we are close at pulling in a proper Easterly within 10-14 days, much much closer than the majority of op outputs will have us believe. The ingredients are clearly there in the outputs.

OK, I’d put decent money on you being right with regards to us ending up disappointed but - not because of the lack of potential.  

Now you can dislike the word ‘potential’ as much as you like, but without it in the first place, a proper Easterly is never going to occur anyway. They simply don’t pop up out of nowhere if the Synoptics are not conducive.

And this is not standard zonal mush, with an all conquering polar vortex. We have Arctic heights meandering around and the block to the NE going nowhere fast, waiting to be reinforced, which it will be. Upstream forcing will then dictate where we move to.

This is still very much game on as we head towards the end of the month..

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Really?? You honestly think we are miles away from it? I certainly don’t.

I think we are close at pulling in a proper Easterly within 10-14 days, much much closer than the majority of op outputs will have us believe. The ingredients are clearly there in the outputs.

OK, I’d put decent money on you being right with regards to us ending up disappointed but - not because of the lack of potential.  

Now you can dislike the word ‘potential’ as much as you like, but without it in the first place, a proper Easterly is never going to occur anyway. They simply don’t pop up out of nowhere if the Synoptics are not conducive.

And this is not standard zonal mush, with an all conquering polar vortex. We have Arctic heights meandering around and the block to the NE going nowhere fast, waiting to be reinforced, which it will be. Upstream forcing will then dictate where we move to.

This is still very much game on as we head towards the end of the month..

More than game on.. today has ramped the uptake by 60%.. 

Waa-pole matter/and pac ingredients-miss-formation are alarmingly worthy of note..

Lets throw russian-pen- warmth in there too!!!

Edited January 16, 2018 by tight isobar

[Donna3397]

I’m confused just looked at bbc forecast and says the wind for me on the south east coast is going to be around 20 mph but on models it’s showing extremely rough.  Please can anyone help (slightly confused) have I got the wrong week?????

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

More than game on.. today has ramped the uptake by 60%.. 

Waa-pole matter/and pac ingredients-miss-formation are alarmingly worthy of note..

Lets throw russian-pen- warmth in there too!!!

Yep. My reinforced block comment alludes to the anticipated Russian WAA surge (maybe further west yet).

[Duane S.]

9 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I’m confused just looked at bbc forecast and says the wind for me on the south east coast is going to be around 20 mph but on models it’s showing extremely rough.  Please can anyone help (slightly confused) have I got the wrong week?????

Definitely this Thursday. Definitely windy down here. 20mph average is still a fair old wind mind you but I suspect on the day it will be nearer 35 - 40, gusting 60+.

Potential for more than that, but the track is still not known. And won’t be until a day or so, even hours before.

These systems running along the base are a forecasters nightmare and can be extremely vicious with high winds away from the northern side. Particularly if it produces a sting jet, which is distinctly possible as it develops and creates back edge cooling. 

Bear in mind that by the same token, it’s as likely to be no more than a very breezy day. 

[Donna3397]

20 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Definitely this Thursday. Definitely windy down here. 20mph average is still a fair old wind mind you but I suspect on the day it will be nearer 35 - 40, gusting 60+.

Potential for more than that, but the track is still not known. And won’t be until a day or so, even hours before.

These systems running along the base are a forecasters nightmare and can be extremely vicious with high winds away from the northern side. Particularly if it produces a sting jet, which is distinctly possible as it develops and creates back edge cooling. 

Bear in mind that by the same token, it’s as likely to be no more than a very breezy day. 

Thank you

[snowstorm27x]

Gfs stops the march south of the Low and takes it further North again and brings bk the developed low.

 

 

 

 

 

[shaky]

1 hour ago, snowstorm27x said:

Gfs stops the march south of the Low and takes it further North again and brings bk the developed low.

 

 

 

 

 

Ukmo and ecm.not as deep and slightly further south again!!its like a yo yo this low going back and forth with its intensity ??

[snowstorm27x]

14 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo and ecm.not as deep and slightly further south again!!its like a yo yo this low going back and forth with its intensity ??

Place your bets now plz. Yh Shaky the models are having a nightmare trying to pin this down. Gfs says slightly further North but ECM and UKMO say further south.

Edited January 16, 2018 by snowstorm27x

[Snowmadsam]

*inhales deeply*

[feb1991blizzard]

168 sir!!!!

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

168 sir!!!!

And the best thing is it has a slider low at t120 hours that disconnects from that horrid pv to the north west!!just a bit too deep for my liking so hopefully on the 12z it slackens out a bit!!

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

*inhales deeply*

???

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, shaky said:

And the best thing is it has a slider low at t120 hours that disconnects from that horrid pv to the north west!!just a bit too deep for my liking so hopefully on the 12z it slackens out a bit!!

Yes its not a million milles away from snow on its ne flank either.

[seabreeze86]

ECM going for a big push from the azores high possibly turning into a Scandi high with the low already into mainland Europe,  very interesting cold air already in place this time so if it gets going will be much more difficult to displace 

At 192 we have a easterly unbelievable 

Edited January 16, 2018 by seabreeze86

[Snowmadsam]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

???

Showing the tension AJ! 

Could be what ecm ens have been saying for while...are we going to be lead up a garden path again?

[KTtom]

Oh no! Where is the ecm going with this.....again!

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

doesn't go out far enough to see it in all its glory, on the face of it quite a sea change but a number of GEFS members have shown this and EPS too looking at clustrs so actually in all honesty an op run was bound to throw out one eventually.