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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
19 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

Maybe a bit premature but yesterday's call for an Easterly was brilliant, when nearly everybody else was just seeing Zonal.  

Which model is showing an Easterly at 168hrs? 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
15 minutes ago, Dennis said:

ICON18z

9.png

7.png

4.png

That's looking sweet, I live between the 985 and 990 isobars on the coast, I always miss out on the good stuff but it looks like I'll be hitting wind jackpot on thursday

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Glad to see normal service has resumed with the model output returning to the pattern it was showing before it went awol on Saturdays 18z run and Sundays runs. Would be interesting to know exactly what caused the models to flip like they did. Anyway things look back on track and  an east or north easterly airflow looks almost to be a  dead cert ( if there is such a thing with the weather ) by months end into February as I have mentioned a few times lately. Have to say though good call from MR Murr yesterday when he (many posters myself included thought we had been led up the garden path yet again), refused to believe the implosion seen by the synoptics on display.

All to play for again now with confidence very high of potent cold spell just around the corner.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

If it continues i dunno where its gona end up lol!!

Into the chanel on exit bound route!!

The track and modeling has been suggesting this possible/probable scenario.

Isobar, fixing also suggests such..

Also on the broader scale..heights @the pole are evolving nicely- once again(going forwards.)

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The interesting feature on the 12z models for me was that by day 9 both the GFS and Euro had the Siberian High at 1060mb (no doubt why some people are open to a pressure rise to our north east).

Be interesting to see if the 18z maintains that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Which model is showing an Easterly at 168hrs? 

I wasn't aware he forecast an Easterly but to look at that period with more scrutiny.

There is a build of high pressure.

gfs-0-192.png?12

Who knows what may transpire from that.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Lovely push of heights to the pole to our North East

gfsnh-0-108.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Decent evolvement..

And weakning @the pacific-somewhat!..

On a large scale-micro-scale is of note...and the russian side of play is of note also-regards to placing of height.

Need a bit of luck around the atlantic/into greenland sector...and we are in a completely different ball park...

And things slowly heading down that route!

Screenshot_2018-01-15-21-59-21.png

Screenshot_2018-01-15-21-59-10.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Looks like it could be going titus verticus to our East

gfs-0-78.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks like it could be going titus verticus to our East

gfs-0-78.png?18

Perfect conditions for motorboating in the Black Sea.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks like it could be going titus verticus to our East

gfs-0-78.png?18

Lol..

Its gonna take for the storm track to be ironed..

And also given current north-hem situ/modeling...and throwing in its the 18z gfs..hardly surprising..but things certainly on an, upwards transition...that russian dig into the pole will likely be the skeleton key...opening the fridge...then freezer door...

Things gaining...-slowly-.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Some slight incremental improvements but whilst those heights remain over or close to Spain and Portugal we can forget any major cold spell. Get those oranges to back west a bit and its a completely different position. Unfortunately once established its often hard work to shift them. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

For those whom remember?!..

Its an-opal fruit thing...

Made to make ya mouth water..

Momentum on both mass scales aligned for meet...

The rest from here would evolve into spillage of cold into mid latts...

 

Screenshot_2018-01-15-22-34-16.png

Screenshot_2018-01-15-22-34-12.png

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

For those whom remember?!..

Its an-opal fruit thing...

Made to make ya mouth water..

Momentum on both mass scales aligned for meet...

The rest from here would evolve into spillage of cold into mid latts...

 

Screenshot_2018-01-15-22-34-16.png

Screenshot_2018-01-15-22-34-12.png

So it will turn into a starburst then:rofl:

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

At least it's not going t*ts up over here:D

i havn't posted the past week due to personal circumstances and have been a bit stressed of late with daughter issues(she was daignosed with ADHD/autism spectrum) and i am having trouble trying to deel with it of which is tough going and i am trying to get a shift change to try and get regular days so that i can be here more for her because my partner caanot cope with the abuse from her,we are trying to get help for this

anyway,from derailing this thread moreover i am sorry to come out with this as i am so emotional at the minute,so i will try and be more resolute to the models

in terms of this runner and i say this is that it ins't much different to a slider in terms of a trough to our north/northeast,the more the vigorous the trough to our NE the more forcing to the south of it,watch out for this as it will be key for this runner

early Dec proved this with the trough to the north and it came down to the wire as regards to the slider,models was struggling with this prior to the output just two days ahead and still ended further south than modeled,i wish i had the time to post the similarities but maybe i will do that tomorrow

meanwhile,tomorrow and into Wednesday will produce for some(elevation especially) but there could be a few surprises if the ppn is heavy enough or trough formation/streamers take hold

Wednesday/Thurday storm one to watch,happy viewing guys,stay safe.:friends:

I have a 9 year old son who is Autistic and also SPD and I myself am Aspergers so I can kind of understand.. only ever an inbox away if you feel the need to vent or just need a break from it all. how old is your daughter?  and chin up pal its hard and sometimes we cant see an end to it all but trust me it does get easier.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

@Allseasons-si

PM me if you want can give you some good info.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Hey! My names Simon I am an adult who also was diagnosed with ADHD last month !! It can be difficult for your but there is medication and treatment for it speak to yor GP  meanwhile stay strong and super her and show love even when it gets tough ok. Meanwhile let's hope gfs keeps the snowy theme goin 

Dammit I wasn't expecting to feel feelings tonight on here, lovely message!

I'm personally hoping the low tracks another couple of hundred miles South and brings the South-East into the snow risk.. I can't see it tracking any further South than the South-Midlands but somewhere is going to see some very strong winds whilst other areas see heavy snow. Definitely interesting model watching.

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