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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Possibly the best chart of the winter thus far. That low should sink down towards the med and an epic easterly sets in. 

I wonder what PPN type is on the Northern flank of it, I would say not snow but I'm crap at interpreting those view of the charts and cant really understand the transition from 144 to 168.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder what PPN type is on the Northern flank of it, I would say not snow but I'm crap at interpreting those view of the charts and cant really understand the transition from 144 to 168.

The wave in the Atlantic north of the Azores at T144hrs hrs runs ene developing as it does so.

Its a real shame we can’t get these UKMO T168hrs hrs charts with a full view.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder what PPN type is on the Northern flank of it, I would say not snow but I'm crap at interpreting those view of the charts and cant really understand the transition from 144 to 168.

If you look at the t144 chart on meteociel, there is a slider incoming. My interpretation is that the slider gets pushed back due to pressure building to the north east. This slider becomes the trough over south west England at T168. If I am correct, this would give quite a lot of snow between T 144 & T168. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, Ukwoody said:

Sorry, what is a "closed system" and whats the difference?

Actually I should have been more careful with the terminology as some people use the term closed low to mean a cut off low which is a very different thing (a low surrounded by high pressure)

What I meant was the difference between an embedded shortwave trough and fully developed low pressure system.

A fully developed low may look far more ominous but an embedded shortwave trough will likely tighten the pressure gradient and bring storm force winds as well.

Essentially the further South it is the less chance there is of storm damage occurring

Hope that clarifies.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
20 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Seems to make the jetstream take a more southerly track and is more easily spotted in the mid lattitudes where it has the greatest effect.

Thanks Northernlights - I will take a look. I am aware of sunspot-cycle - climate links, but was really quite interested in shorter-term solar links to terrestrial weather, of the sort that could possibly be incorporated into (or inform interpretation of) the gfs/ecm/ukmo model output that we look at here. Sudden changes in trends/patterns (such as disappearance/downgrades of cold events!) are interesting/frustrating - I have little doubt that non-terrestrial events have an influence (not sure I should call this a 'long-range teleconnection'!)

I will watch the video...

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Looking at the ecm mean and it looks like a huge push from the east between days 9 and 10. I think there will be many very cold runs post day 10  showing on the debilt ens tonight. 

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Looking at the ecm mean and it looks like a huge push from the east between days 9 and 10. I think there will be many very cold runs post day 10  showing on the debilt ens tonight. 

I'm not even calling tomorrow yet! Here in the West of Wales! Let's wait and see! Imagine if it got into the op....

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Location: Hampshire
12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Actually I should have been more careful with the terminology as some people use the term closed low to mean a cut off low which is a very different thing (a low surrounded by high pressure)

What I meant was the difference between an embedded shortwave trough and fully developed low pressure system.

A fully developed low may look far more ominous but an embedded shortwave trough will likely tighten the pressure gradient and bring storm force winds as well.

Essentially the further South it is the less chance there is of storm damage occurring

Hope that clarifies.

So as it rises north from the trough then it would become its very own seperate deep low on its own?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

so what of the storm itself wenesday, it's showing severe storm winds of almost hurricane force across the Midlands?

storm.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

You need huge push from East to get it over to uk.

I have seen countless times Europe get the cold and uk misses out,as the block fails to push back west enough.

Thats the Uk for you too far West at the end of the European contingent ,on an Island,surrounded by warm seas.

No wonder we spend most winter chasing cold :gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

so what of the storm itself wenesday, it's showing severe storm winds of almost hurricane force across the Midlands?

storm.png

The 12z GFS run took it alot further South. It will take a brave forecaster to nail this one.

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6 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

I'm not even calling tomorrow yet! Here in the West of Wales! Let's wait and see! Imagine if it got into the op....

Good luck for snow in west Wales tomorrow, you might be lucky because here on the South Wales coast it's a case of sunshine & heavy rain showers @7C so nothing exciting 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

The 12z GFS run took it alot further South. It will take a brave forecaster to nail this one.

Snow line will be near the north midlands with another shift south I imagine!! Crazy as it was only north Scotland yesterday 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
20 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

so what of the storm itself wenesday, it's showing severe storm winds of almost hurricane force across the Midlands?

storm.png

ECM op only 50-70mph, but an awful lot of ECM ensembles have 90-100mph at landfall for N Wales / Lancashire (fewer runs going for S Scotland tonight)

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
32 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

The 12z GFS run took it alot further South. It will take a brave forecaster to nail this one.

its  not looking good this could  get nasty

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
36 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

so what of the storm itself wenesday, it's showing severe storm winds of almost hurricane force across the Midlands?

storm.png

I would be amazed if that's correct. The arpege does tend to over do winds  however anything close to 70mph will be a nightmare 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

METO Fax chart for 72z

PPVK89.gif?31415

This mornings 

PPVL89.gif?31415

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Posted
  • Location: iow england
  • Location: iow england
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

But Yesterday’s Post was when they were all mild.... how can something be jinx that wasn’t showing...

Maybe a bit premature but yesterday's call for an Easterly was brilliant, when nearly everybody else was just seeing Zonal.  

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon less deep again by 5mb at 48 hours compares to 12z and smidgen further south again!!

Yep now very strong winds across midlands and Wales 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep now very strong winds across midlands and Wales 

Yup but one thing ive notices is it keeps delaying the deepening of the low!!it might never happen!!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Still think this could shift another 150 miles south yet maybe more.

lots of runs to go with this trend.

Edited by snowbob
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