Model output discussion - mid-winter

[tight isobar]

On 14/01/2018 at 01:22, tight isobar said:

Indeed..

As thought!!!

The feature, is of water feed- and will use the irish sea as a funel..

And exact as an, L, type..as energy builds in behind dragging it horizontal- to the near continent.

Isobar tightening, as the feature gains..and destructive winds are highly likely..

The overall mechanics/dynamics imo are preety much on-..although a 100miles or so,- gradient is of much difference...

But a chanel zipper looking ripe!..

Moving on...

Usualy i would disregard the gfs 10hpa strat- and indeed all strat- synoptics..(gfs)

But this signal is of notable instance due to waving-and N hem situ...

And if this is being modeled near the mark...its an, eye opening aknowlegement!!!

And the rebounds are significant!!

 

Remaining on course..

Still see the exit point via english chanel..into near continent.

And the colder scenrio playing out through further modeling.

Edited January 15, 2018 by tight isobar

[Man With Beard]

Oh and I wouldn't unbolt your sheds up north just yet. Some model output (e.g. GEM and I still suspect UKMO) still sees an 70 or even 80mph plus event through the northern cities. 

It's the fact that the storm might be deepening over the mainland that makes this storm different - usually they peak out at sea and lose their energy when they hit the coast.

Anyone hoping to keep their power on up north needs to pray the GFS 12Z has nailed it.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Man With Beard

[TEITS]

Many of the GEFS ensembles show more of a kink rather than a storm. Here is the GEFS mean.

At the moment the ensembles suggest the low will enter around Lancs and exit around Hull.

Further forward and im amazed at the turnaround from the UKMO. No predictions from me except what a rollercoaster ride we are having with more ups and downs likely. Could the Siberian express train which has been derailed a few times finally make its destination!

[feb1991blizzard]

You know what charts like this will mean for Netweather cold chasers if they start getting modelled with any consistency don't you?

[nick sussex]

It’s a real shame that this storm is looking like verifying.

These fast moving systems running east are always a real problem. I detest storms, just undue worry for people and although I like the extremes it’s more very hot v very cold and snow  and no wind! 

 

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You know what charts like this will mean for Netweather cold chasers if they start getting modelled with any consistency don't you?

Hi mate, does this show the possibility of an easterly influence by any chance? Thanks

[Mucka]

Just now, nick sussex said:

It’s a real shame that this storm is looking like verifying.

These fast moving systems running east are always a real problem. I detest storms, just undue worry for people and although I like the extremes it’s more very hot v very cold and snow  and no wind! 

 

 

Yes, I think one or two are being fooled by it not being modelled as closed system as it crosses the UK here and there. Winds to the South of the feature will be very stormy regardless unless it is pushed further South.

JMA's take on it

[chris55]

Moving beyond the uncertain track of Thursdays low, the potential slider into the weekend has been there for the past few runs on GFS. I had my eye on it yesterday though it looked as though milder air would follow directly behind, negating any interest in snowfall that may have temporarily fallen.

However with the uncertainty highlighted by many on here, and Ian Fergusans tweet (regarding where we will end up beyond this weekend) this slider may well prove to be more interesting than it initially looked.

If we can get the wedge of heights that initiates the trough disruption/slide to build and turn into a more substati block we could be in business.

one to watch!

[Man With Beard]

Lots of interesting height rises to the East in the GEFS after D10

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Many of the GEFS ensembles show more of a kink rather than a storm. Here is the GEFS mean.

At the moment the ensembles suggest the low will enter around Lancs and exit around Hull.

Further forward and im amazed at the turnaround from the UKMO. No predictions from me except what a rollercoaster ride we are having with more ups and downs likely. Could the Siberian express train which has been derailed a few times finally make its destination!

Indeed Dave...As Snowbunting pointed-out, during yesterday's deepest spell of mutual wrist-slitting, there was always a sizeable ensemble-cluster going for cold solutions within the models' output...?

All is deffo not lost!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed Dave...As Snowbunting pointed-out, during yesterday's deepest spell of mutual wrist-slitting, there was always a sizeable ensemble-cluster going for cold solutions within the models' output...?

All is deffo not lost!

Another Dave? sheeesh so many of them, chart though to me looks still gales in South, but perhaps S of the channel?

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

Hi mate, does this show the possibility of an easterly influence by any chance? Thanks

HI - well it doesn't actually show an Easterly - you wouldn't expect it to - its a mean - but it shows the possibility of a long drawn out chase with arguments about west - east west - east - GFS - ECM and ultimately we will all end up falling out over nothing again because knowing our luck it will be another garden path!!!!

[Gowon]

 

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Lots of interesting height rises to the East in the GEFS after D10

I like Perturbation 20.  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=20&mode=0&carte=0

 

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by D.V.R

[SLEETY]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Lots of interesting height rises to the East in the GEFS after D10

Hope the ecm shows heights building over Svalbard like it did on yesterday’s 12z.Thats the holy grail of uk cold spells high pressure intensifying in that region and building Southwards.

Our coldest and longest spells of wintry weather come from there.Very very rare though.

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes, I think one or two are being fooled by it not being modelled as closed system as it crosses the UK here and there. Winds to the South of the feature will be very stormy regardless unless it is pushed further South.

JMA's take on it

Yes I think regardless the squeeze on the southern flank will be a worry .

I freak out here if a storm even gets close! Some of the strongest winds I’ve seen here have been in association with thunderstorms. I hate those aswell, the only ones which I can enjoy are quite mind blowing when the storms stay just south of the French side of the Pyrenees and remain on the first range of mountains as you can get the whole range lit up clearly here with the cloud staying over the border in Spain.

Its incredibly eerie. In some parts of France you’re advised to have a lightening protection box fitted.

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by nick sussex

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Chuffing hell! 

[SMU]

Afternoon-

As noted / forecast yesterday models starting to rapidly change in the 168-192 arena...

Can the ECM add a bit more cement on the concrete....

[Sky Full]

I think we might have been given a little more than 24 hours notice of the conditions being modelled for tomorrow....

Where did that come from?  

[Frosty.]

6 hours ago, bobbydog said:

who are you? and what have you done with Frosty? 

I managed to find some beauties among the GEFS 12z..

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[Ukwoody]

28 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes, I think one or two are being fooled by it not being modelled as closed system as it crosses the UK here and there. Winds to the South of the feature will be very stormy regardless unless it is pushed further South.

JMA's take on it

Sorry, what is a "closed system" and whats the difference?

[shaky]

Hmm is that low even further south at 48 hours on the ecm!!and also just bout at 995 mb!

[78/79]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

It's quite welcome to carry on shifting south, if it turns into a channel low with the west country on the northern flank getting buried in snow, I don't think anyone down here will complain.

Should be good  around Priddy, it's always an overcoat colder up there

[snowice]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

What great charts from the Gfs 12z!...not distant FI...it's tomorrow!!more of this please!

Yes great can't see you or me.ecm hopefully will show the change at 168 to something more wintry.

[shaky]

Massive downgrade on the deepness of that low on thecm at 72 hours compared to yesterday 96 hour chart!!and its miles further south lol

[Paul_1978]

7 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

Sorry, what is a "closed system" and whats the difference?

A closed system just means that the small low is formed by the isobars being “closed” in a circular shape, as opposed to just being a kink in the isobars of the much larger low pressure system.