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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

That’s quite a dramatic change with a prominent Italy low I struggle to see where we’d go forward from this.

BAAB90D8-F38E-4A1A-919D-59C63A2F5A38.thumb.gif.af3bb2f9e8bdd6aaf4258fca9d8a223c.gifED964344-7827-44BA-95A3-0CC5204AE6C5.thumb.gif.a6d8e6a07431728c3f6fdafc3e58030b.gif

It's really chalk and cheese,  we have gone with a significant increase of 3 things,

1- Italian low much stronger 

2- stronger Canadian/Greenland vortex 

3- more prominent Siberian blocking

 

Much better prospects movjng foward from the 12 UKMO which could undercut and dive southeast into Europe 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

FWIW there is already a decent cold pool in Central Europe and to the north east in Scandi. As others have alluded to, once this is entrenched it often proves hard to shift and is a factor in the changing output.

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What drama!

From the let down after the models went into flattening on steroids now finding some more amplification upstream.

The UKMO moves towards the more amplified solution which is a relief after its morning horror show.

 

And a massive hats off to GP who seems to have made an excellent call a few days ago

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the slackness of the pattern to the east/ne and surface cold building there will we see a small Scandi high form?

This has happened in the past, anyway at least we're moving in a better direction after what recently seemed an inevitable slide into crapsville!

It's getting strange this... looking at the drastic changes between the UKMO 00z and 12z, it's as if, somehow, the models have been seeing the low heights associated with the stagnating cold airmass and interpreting a trough that the Atlantic one(s) can easily saunter across and merge with, when actually it is increasingly apparent that this is a large pool of dense cold air that's not very friendly to the Atlantic troughs.

Either that or the Pacific changes have been overlooked to a more extreme extent than I ever imagined. Hmm.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

With a bit more dig south of the Atlantic trough we could see better ridging to the ne.

The Atlantic attack isn't really that strong and looks a bit halfhearted. The GEFS given the op should develop some Scandi high scenarios.

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Unfortunately the storm looks to be shifting southwards on each run and this means so are the strongest, damaging wind gusts, not good news at all for Wales. If this trend continues as well as the intensity, we *could* end up with another 12 February 2014 storm when winds in the Irish Sea & Bristol Channel gusted up to 100mph causing widespread damage and power cuts. However one thing certain is, unlike that storm which peaked early afternoon when lots of people were out and about and the kids were in school, this will be an overnight feature, so a sleepless night for many but at least very few people will be out in it.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
22 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Hang on, GFS 12Z even shows precip moving in from NW/W Sunday early hours now turning to snow as it hits inland, looks to slide SE... Few tweaks and look what happens! 

12_132_preciptype.thumb.png.38de9cec0052fe64249fc850c6083b38.png 5a5cd3d7edbc1_hangon...thumb.png.f5a1f87001e01dc8c4908ded52c96a1d.png 61m.thumb.png.0bc47acf3d11103fc18aa07750695aae.png

 

Amazing how often the very next output reflects a comment I make in advance of it.

UKMO is far less keen to stall low pressure and disrupt it SE though and of course that front could slide further West and we stay dry or push through and we get rain.

Nice to see the potential modelled though.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

With a bit more dig south of the Atlantic trough we could see better ridging to the ne.

The Atlantic attack isn't really that strong and looks a bit halfhearted. The GEFS given the op should develop some Scandi high scenarios.

Definitely a window of opportunity there Nick.

Hopefully the 12z is sniffing out blocking to our NE but any kind of ridge in the Atlantic would help enormously.

12z V 06z Eastern blocking.

gfsnh-0-228.png?12gfsnh-0-234.png?6

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

In my eyes a big swing back (getting there) to where the low was foretasted to be (Weds/Thurs)  at the start of the weekend 

gfs-0-54_xlm4.pngGFS 12Z TODAY gfs-0-126_yev4.png LAST FRIDAY'S GFS 6Z

And this is how that ended up :help:

gfs-2-138_qez0.png

:cold::clap:

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Unfortunately the storm looks to be shifting southwards on each run and this means so are the strongest, damaging wind gusts, not good news at all for Wales. If this trend continues as well as the intensity, we *could* end up with another 12 February 2014 storm when winds in the Irish Sea & Bristol Channel gusted up to 100mph causing widespread damage and power cuts. However one thing certain is, unlike that storm which peaked early afternoon when lots of people were out and about and the kids were in school, this will be an overnight feature, so a sleepless night for many but at least very few people will be out in it.

Indeed the shift south is become a common theme over the past 24 hours. I wouldn't be too concerned with 100mph winds though. The shift south has also slowly brought the winds down (mostly due to the GFS going default and over-estimating the Atlantic). Strongest gusts right now appear to be around 60-70mph, mostly to the Southern counties and South west. 

Either way a 'blink' and you'll miss it type of system luckily.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The envelope on the storm appears to be lancs/Yorks if it stays an open wave (let’s say notts/Derbys at the extreme) or central Scotland if it deepens and really engages with the jet. Where the talk of it being further south than the n midlands comes from is just strange. No models have shown this, wave or not. This isn’t a slider.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

12z UKMET-G further north and deeper (970mb) with the low vs GFS at t+60:

UKMET_060_0000.thumb.gif.37fce28e77d9a22b01c7414a4012179f.gif

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

In my eyes a big swing back (getting there) to where the low was foretasted to be (Weds/Thurs)  at the start of the weekend 

gfs-0-54_xlm4.pngGFS 12Z TODAY gfs-0-126_yev4.png LAST FRIDAY'S GFS 6Z

And this is how that ended up :help:

gfs-2-138_qez0.png

:cold::clap:

Wow that is goin back to what it showing few days ago!!maybe gfs was just teasing us all this time!!

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

12z UKMET-G further north and deeper (970mb) with the low vs GFS at t+60:

UKMET_060_0000.thumb.gif.37fce28e77d9a22b01c7414a4012179f.gif

A carbon copy of the GFS during yesterday. Still far from pinned down, causing many forecasters a big headache no doubt.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
19 hours ago, bobbydog said:

still plenty of scope for change between now and thursday. by then, it'll be a high pressure system in khazakstan! :D

oh look! a massive high pressure system over khazakstan!-

gfsnh-0-222-1.thumb.png.7b4ed07b6b860a6892e6cbf60f86332a.png

seriously though, i'm surprised no-one has mentioned it. its a big difference from the last run-

gfsnh-0-240-2.thumb.png.7eb7125232b992e369cc8d6475b46431.png

thats going to put the brakes on the jet!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The envelope on the storm appears to be lancs/Yorks if it stays an open wave (let’s say notts/Derbys at the extreme) or central Scotland if it deepens and really engages with the jet. Where the talk of it being further south than the n midlands comes from is just strange. No models have shown this, wave or not. This isn’t a slider.

Not sure if I'm misunderstanding you here but the GFS definitely shifts the strongest winds to the south now (and not quite as strong, thankfully)

60-289UK.GIF?15-12

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, Man With Beard said:

Not sure if I'm misunderstanding you here but the GFS definitely shifts the strongest winds to the south now (and not quite as strong, thankfully)

60-289UK.GIF?15-12

I expect he means the centre of the low.  maybe

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I expect he means the centre of the low.  maybe

Ah yes that would make sense. The "eye" is not forecast to get south of Nottingham, and that means zero chance of snow Wednesday night south of that point. As it stands.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Shouldn't this will it wont it low saga be in the short term model thread??.god its turning into a soap.anyway as nick mentioned there does seem ro be an opportunity with the slack pressure and deep cold to the east to indeed with digging some sort of pressure rise to the nne.mayby only transient but still!!

Edited by swfc
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