Model output discussion - mid-winter

[karlos1983]

ICON looks to be taking a slightly more southerly track on the 12z 

 

12z 06z

12z 06z

10mb weaker as well

Edited January 15, 2018 by karlos1983

[Singularity]

A bit quicker to arrive as well. Still deepening as it makes landfall.

The Azores High is slightly weaker on this run. Hardly anything but it doesn't take much to shift the track of a runner by as much as 100 miles or so.

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Cluster 1 on the ECM ensembles was interesting this morning - Scandi ridge - Is this the @iapennell easterly about to strike for the end of January?

Looking at the last few cluster sets, this might be an emerging trend

Well, I'm glad it's not just CFSv2 trying for the GWO-related Scandi High because it's hard to big-up that model .

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A bit quicker to arrive as well. Still deepening as it makes landfall.

The Azores High is slightly weaker on this run. Hardly anything but it doesn't take much to shift the track of a runner by as much as 100 miles or so.

Also the AH seems to be pulling slightly west. Maybe better chance at a ridge development later in the run.

[karlos1983]

That's roughly 150 miles shift south from the ICON 06z - 12z by my reckoning... interesting

06z    12z

 

[beng]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A bit quicker to arrive as well. Still deepening as it makes landfall.

The Azores High is slightly weaker on this run. Hardly anything but it doesn't take much to shift the track of a runner by as much as 100 miles or so.

 

Just reminds me of this storm so much - timing is different with this one peaking overnight, but could be quite something.

 

[Mucka]

I think that after the cold zonal flow and storm there are two dates of interest.

The 21st and around the 26th.

The 21st because GFS is stalling the trough SW of Iceland and disrupting energy SE which could give a snowy end to the cold snap for some around that date before the Atlantic gets in proper, though plenty of water, wind and snow to pass under the bridge before that. 

The 26th because this is where there will be a small window of opportunity for the jet to be deflected SE and heights to build N/NE as prelude to blocking.

ECM ensembles still show a small cold cluster from around the 27th so not the form horse but at least it is something to look out for for end of Jan.

[karyo]

At 93 hours the ICON phases the two lows in northeast Canada which slows down their progress eastwards and allows some kind of ridge in the Atlantic. Northwesterly for us.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=93&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

[weirpig]

Lets hope the Icon  is a little over the top with these windspeeds.  straight through England and wales  at 80mph  

[shaky]

12z gfs maybe further south aswell!!

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

12z gfs maybe further south aswell!!

indeed it is... Northern England event rather than Scotland "on this run"

The low doesn't even close on the GFS 12z,

Edited January 15, 2018 by karlos1983

[weirpig]

Ha Ha  were the low?.

[Matthew Gill]

Another 50 miles south?

[Snowmadsam]

Storm substantially weaker on the 12z, more of a 'kink'

 - 48h

 - 54h

 - 60h

Interesting developments....

[shaky]

Jesus where has the storm gone on gfs 12z!!much further south and not as deep!!

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Jesus where has the storm gone on gfs 12z!!much further south and not as deep!!

Not even a storm, just an open wave at T60.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Yarmy

[Eskimo]

The low will end up drifting across Nantes at this rate! 

[Daniel*]

Delete 

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Daniel*

[weirpig]

Just now, Yarmy said:

Not even a storm, just an open wave at T60.

So if i go by the icon  i need to keep an eye on my roof.  but the GFS says not enough to fly a kite.  dont you just love it.

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

So if i go by the icon  i need to keep an eye on my roof.  but the GFS says not enough to fly a kite.  dont you just love it.

Who's gonna say it....MORE RUNS NEEDED

[Singularity]

It is closed according to the NW format with 4 mb spacing. Now the strongest winds are long the South Coast where it still looks strong but nothing exceptional. Widely near 60 mph is still pretty notable but markedly short of the Burns Day storm.

[Donna3397]

This is like a yo yo I can’t keep up

[beng]

9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It is closed according to the NW format with 4 mb spacing. Now the strongest winds are long the South Coast where it still looks strong but nothing exceptional. Widely near 60 mph is still pretty notable but markedly short of the Burns Day storm.

Who'd be a forecaster. I hope we get some model agreement by tomorrow on this storm (or non storm), don't want another 1987 mess.  The trend now seems to be for nothing too bad based on the models moving it South, so let's hope that's correct.

Edited January 15, 2018 by beng

[Mr Frost]

17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

indeed it is... Northern England event rather than Scotland "on this run"

The low doesn't even close on the GFS 12z,

As long as the wind keeps South of me and the Snow goes through my area. (As per latest Metoffice warning/GFS chart attached then I will be happy. 

Or just to be greedy give me gale force/severe gale force winds and heavy snow combined! 

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Mr Frost

[mulzy]

GEM further south too!