Model output discussion - mid-winter

[carinthian]

Morning all. The latest fax chart now has the Newfound Low in its range. Just as an observation, I wonder if the forecasters view is for the track to be further south than the UKMO model currently suggests. The raw data may show a variant to this prognosis. So forecast could be subject to change for Wed/ Thurs potent development (ie ) snowfall /winds/rain zone.

C

Edited January 15, 2018 by carinthian

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is it me or has ecm and ukmo moved that storm slightly further south at 72 hours!!

UKMO is slightly further S however it’s fairly negligible likewise with ECM. Those looking for snow I think that ship has sailed only parts of Scotland really at risk however there is still time for a notable shift..

[Duane S.]

GEFS still throwing out a few runs of interest this morning, perfectly plausible in their evolution as well, so not to be discounted completely. I think most on here would take P1 ? ?. As always, not saying anything like this will occur but it shows it wouldn’t take too much of a tweak to the synoptics to draw in some seriously cold air building to our NE. Look for signs of vertical WAA through the UK and interaction with the Arctic high. Long shot but one day...! (Nice shark shape on pic 5 as well ?)

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by s4lancia

[Frosty.]

If the Gfs 00z op is right about next week it will feel like an early taste of spring across southern uk with very mild weather at times with temps into the low teens celsius.

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If the Gfs 00z op is right about next week it will feel like an early taste of spring across southern uk with very mild weather at times with temps into the low teens celsius.

Models have a poor record when such storms like Thursday should are on the table

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Models have a poor record when such storms like Thursday should are on the table

I can't see what difference Thursday's storm can make for next week. 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO at D6 has southwesterly winds though remaining chilly for many

D7 they swing more westerly

[snowfish1]

7 hours ago, Weather Wonder said:

I think you’ve made your point now, realistically we all want snow in our own back yard and read the charts with that in mind.

back to the models there is still plenty of potential in the reliable which ever part of Great Britain is your back yard

Well said some people are very good at rubbing salt in wounds rather than being needed medics

[snowfish1]

25 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

GEFS still throwing out a few runs of interest this morning, perfectly plausible in their evolution as well, so not to be discounted completely. I think most on here would take P1 ? ?. As always, not saying anything like this will occur but it shows it wouldn’t take too much of a tweak to the synoptics to draw in some seriously cold air building to our NE. Look for signs of vertical WAA through the UK and interaction with the Arctic high. Long shot but one day...! (Nice shark shape on pic 5 as well ?)

 

Yes agreed everything f to play for. Great shark there's been a fish showing. For some time too!

[snowstorm27x]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

It’s further north compared to 18z however more deeper; isobars are even more tighter for many...

To me it still looks South a touch but in the big picture it dosent change much. Maybe I need to go to Specsavers lol.

[MR EXTREMES]

9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like a little bit of Bartlett ridging North just enough to give a touch of frost I'm afraid - absolute tat.

Bartlett or more heights to our south and southeast into Europe showing on the gem in fi.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Bartlett or more heights to our south and southeast into Europe showing on the gem in fi.

GEM looks similar to ECM, although theres small bits of amplification its transient in a generally fairly fast movin zonal pattern with as you say heights to the South.

[ArHu3]

34 minutes ago, karyo said:

I can't see what difference Thursday's storm can make for next week. 

Because the models don't have the exact course and low nailed yet and that will impact everything that happens after, so everything being modeled longer term will change completely, the next few days. 

[Dennis]

 

[karyo]

27 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Because the models don't have the exact course and low nailed yet and that will impact everything that happens after, so everything being modeled longer term will change completely, the next few days. 

I disagree. Whether this low tracks through Scotland or 200 miles further south makes hardly any difference to the pattern afterwards. Some days ago the models were showing a ridge to develop in the Atlantic but then they picked up this low crossing the Atlantic and spoiling the chances of the ridge development. Whether the low is north or south makes little difference in what happens afterwards. 

Besides, the models are in close agreement that the low will cross Scotland. There are no significant variations in the track.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean, next week continues generally unsettled, especially further north and west with atlantic low pressure in control, still rather cold across northern uk but closer to average further south.

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean, next week continues generally unsettled, especially further north and west with atlantic low pressure in control, still rather cold across northern uk but closer to average further south.

Is that based on North or South of Wakefield.

I was curious where your line was drawn.

[samadamsuk]

Morning all. Interesting little low over northern ireland in this run, looks to be in a left exit if the jet - the jet then merges and this feature doesnt deepen - interesting though. Samos

[shaky]

Low is definately further south on the gfs at 72 hours compared to 00z run!!

[weirpig]

Again  low adjusts south  not enough obviously to bring snow to the south  but will alter were the highest winds will be.

Edit  shaky beat me to it

Edited January 15, 2018 by weirpig

[shaky]

21 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Again  low adjusts south  not enough obviously to bring snow to the south  but will alter were the highest winds will be.

Edit  shaky beat me to it

Quiet a bit further south aswell!!00z had centre western scotland!!06 has it nort east england!!

[shaky]

Hmmm is it me or is gfs going back to the more amplified solution from 2 days ago between 96 and 120 hours!!minor slider further west at 138 hours aswell!

Edited January 15, 2018 by shaky

[karlos1983]

Do I spot trough disruption at 132

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by karlos1983

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Hmmm is it me or is gfs going back to the more amplified solution from 2 days ago between 96 and 120 hours!!

It soon flattens but it could be a theme to build on and from what I've noticed this winter GFS seems to pick up themes before the rest of the models. One to watch?

[Dennis]

lots of weather to watch coming days