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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

and the good thing about it is, any one of those "stonkers" is a feasible outcome. :good:

Hmmm

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nothing as good as the one already pointed out but a few -7c or below and attempts at splitting PV - too much of a mess and that usually isn't a good sign.

Thank you 

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Well, for here, the 18z downgrades the storm later this week, with more perturbations taking a southerly track and the likely precipitation cut. Expecting this sort of shift back and forth over the next five or six runs.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
45 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_276.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011412_360.

Looks like a little bit of Bartlett ridging North just enough to give a touch of frost I'm afraid - absolute tat.

Yes doesn't look that exciting but a couple of "potentials" - I think 25/26 Jan have potential for another small Atlantic ridge considering the 00Z eps were on the whole similar to clusters 2 and 3 in the T276 chart. 

The T360 charts do look bartlett-esq at a first glance but I'm guessing clusters 1/2 could result in surface pressure building at slightly higher latitudes than at 500mb level and perhaps, then, a pretty cold but dry continental pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

We have to accept the pattern is flattening and the westerlies will return in the short term. Maybe this is a reload pattern for a change in February. Not sure I’ll have that egg on my face @sausage! I said the trend was warming, but you and others mocked me. 

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
39 minutes ago, More Snow said:

North west Scotland Jackpot plus free drinks and the buffet....

I think you’ve made your point now, realistically we all want snow in our own back yard and read the charts with that in mind.

back to the models there is still plenty of potential in the reliable which ever part of Great Britain is your back yard

Edited by Weather Wonder
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS is similar to recent runs bringing a nasty storm across the North but UKMO has it a tad further South and so less developed/deep - still gales for many though. GEM sides more with GFS.

gfs-0-72.pngUW72-21.GIFgem-0-72.png?00

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
17 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS is similar to recent runs bringing a nasty storm across the North but UKMO has it a tad further South and so less developed/deep - still gales for many though. GEM sides more with GFS.

gfs-0-72.pngUW72-21.GIFgem-0-72.png?00

GFS consistent with worst winds hitting somewhere around Cumbria/Lancashire coast but severe gales look widespread

ukgust.png

ukgust.png

A 50 mile jog S and the likes of Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield could see some very destructive winds. 

The GEM affects Scotland more.

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS nearly gives a snow event at 144 with the trough disrupting SE

gfsnh-0-144.pnggfsnh-1-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS nearly gives a snow event at 144 with the trough disrupting SE

gfsnh-0-144.pnggfsnh-1-144.png

We're also seeing more upstream amplification day 8

gfsnh-0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS consistent with worst winds hitting somewhere around Cumbria/Lancashire coast but severe gales look widespread

ukgust.png

ukgust.png

A 50 mile jog S and the likes of Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield could see some very destructive winds. 

The GEM affects Scotland more.

 

Manchester & Peaks plus South Yorkshire  was shown in earlier runs then it moved North. A forecasters nightmare for sure.

Edited by Had Worse
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We're also seeing more upstream amplification day 8

gfsnh-0-192.png

Indeed.

Perhaps aided and abetted by GFS reluctance to push the trough through this run.

After relentless setbacks to our programmed cold zonal spell, there have been one or two slivers of hope for end of Jan appearing in recent output again.

 

Edit.

Then again...

gfsnh-0-264.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury

To my untrained eye the low looks a tad further south but more developed from the 18z. See the blues clearly further into Ireland.

h500slp-1.thumb.png.6ce1082cfbd04c02d208b6de0157763c.png

 

h500slp-2.thumb.png.2904f1eac0f12c1b78384b618d5e425b.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire
5 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

You enjoy your Huge amount of snow this winter @More Snow And we shall enjoy our warm spring and hot summers while you are all deluged with rain ' winds and grey sky' Oh and the odd look at the temp being above 17c or kicking it to 19c . when we are bathing down here in 28c /31c ' Not being nasty , just stating a fact that we do better down here for at least 6 months while you Northerners get a Crap Spring and Summer .:D:D:D

As a Southerner living up in the NE, your talking alot of cobblers. Oh and when it comes to Sun, western Scotland has on average the highest amount in the UK. Please respect the forum and do your research before you comment Cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
4 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

As a Southerner living up in the NE, your talking alot of cobblers. Oh and when it comes to Sun, western Scotland has on average the highest amount in the UK. Please respect the forum and do your research before you comment Cheers.

It actually Bognor and the far South.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 hours ago, snowstorm27x said:

To my untrained eye the low looks a tad further south but more developed from the 18z. See the blues clearly further into Ireland.

h500slp-1.thumb.png.6ce1082cfbd04c02d208b6de0157763c.png

 

h500slp-2.thumb.png.2904f1eac0f12c1b78384b618d5e425b.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s further north compared to 18z however more deeper; isobars are even more tighter for many...

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

The feature that heralds the biggest chsnge at the end of the week.. looks far less amplified on the 0z. Could this be a trend?

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