Model output discussion - mid-winter

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, Dennis said:

18z 24 hours ago the worst ....today the best like this chart....

I do sometimes wonder what your on Denis, its definitely not prozac. Thats an 06z run though isn't it, for 12th Jan? 

 Ahh the Netherlands, the last time I had a piece of chocolate cake in  Amsterdam I was ill for 3 days, seriously, and I was none the wiser, what a mug!

Edited January 14, 2018 by snowray

[mother nature rocks]

36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Oh God no! 

Please ECM, no more!

Coldies are beginning to feel like the girl out of Poltergeist. 

When she utters those words, no more!

The ECM might be about to start another wild goose chase!

It’s about time Nick.. we haven’t had one for 24 hours..??

[karyo]

14 minutes ago, Dennis said:

18z 24 hours ago the worst ....today the best like this chart....

This chart makes today's output even harder to swallow! 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended going a bit more westerly

[DIS1970]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

This chart makes today's output even harder to swallow! 

It almost looks hand drawn just to annoy all weather watchers, as it is far from believable now.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

It almost looks hand drawn just to annoy all weather watchers, as it is far from believable now.

In Greece we say I went to buy a wig but I ended up with a haircut. This is how I feel right now. lol

[Dennis]

 

So you dont know ..... Im sry for you - you may write them for the handpainting charts

http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=europe&chart=overview&run=12&step=003&plottype=10&lat=53.065&lon=6.334&skewtstep=0

Edited January 14, 2018 by Dennis

[Sky Full]

"Hello, officer?  I'd like to report a missing polar vortex, please.  No, haven't seen it for a few days now - most unusual at this time of year.  No, it hasn't gone home to mother and it's not down the pub, either.  Can you please send out a search party?"

This is a seriously disrupted PV and it hasn't had its act together for most of the winter.  You would think that we could expect something dramatic to occur in our part of the hemisphere while the PV was in such disarray, wouldn't you?  There is still plenty of time to find out..... 

 

[CK1981]

I think we need to accept the chances of the pattern flattening and turning westerly is odds on for a while. That’s not to say winter is over, it might just be a holding pattern....

[Chesil View]

56 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

I think post T96 is sticking ones neck out Mark......

Yes I feeling generous for moment there.

[ghoneym]

6 minutes ago, Dennis said:

 

So you dont know ..... Im sry for you - you may write them for the handpainting charts

http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=europe&chart=overview&run=12&step=003&plottype=10&lat=53.065&lon=6.334&skewtstep=0

Just spotted this cheeky little low pressure system from the chart on your  link Dennis!

[Dancerwithwings]

15 minutes ago, karyo said:

This chart makes today's output even harder to swallow! 

Makes ya sick don't it....the bottom half of the UK would of been buried

[Dennis]

6 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Just spotted this cheeky little low pressure system from the chart on your  link Dennis!

true it is last run - i mentioned only to earlier time to show what i hoped it will be back 

Edited January 14, 2018 by Dennis

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles mean chart has westerlies in by next Sunday, but reamplification out west again at T240

[bobbydog]

funny isn't it. when the models, (which respond to the input data taken from the ever-evolving weather) suddenly switch from showing a mild outlook to a cold one, they are brilliant. there are enthusiastic discussions around which one did the excellent job of picking up the signal first. ( unless they show mild, then they are "cannon fodder") and how well they are performing. yet when the opposite happens (like now) suddenly they are "junk" and its a "debacle" as to how poor they are performing. thing is, this happens all the time - they evolve and the output changes frequently - but who notices in the middle of spring or summer?....

Edited January 14, 2018 by bobbydog

[doctor32]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

funny isn't it. when the models, (which respond to the input data taken from the ever-evolving weather) suddenly switch from showing a mild outlook to a cold one, they are brilliant. there are enthusiastic discussions around which one did the excellent job of picking up the signal first. and how well they are performing. yet when the opposite happens (like now) suddenly they are "junk" and its a "debacle" as to how poor they are performing. thing is, this happens all the time - they evolve and the output changes frequently - but who notices in the middle of spring or summer?....

Very true indeed.

Plus in three to four days time they will be showing something else and even our next incoming cold spell from the east (that wont verify )

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM keeps it interesting.....and I’d support that.  Really like the idea it has at t240 as well.  

I’ll be looking for upgrades re the pM punchiness and longevity rather than any Azores Ridging spoiler.

Back in Swansea (to deal with business end of stuff) and it’ll be rollercoaster enough to match my emotions ;-)

 

BFTP

Edited January 14, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles for Thursday generally has the storm striking S Scotland worst, 100-120mph max gusts for the western Isles, 90-100mph for mainland coast around Ayr and 80-90mph for big cities.

N England generally 60-80mph - not as severe as yesterday.

Only a minority bring the worst of the storm south.

I'll move my posts on this to the short range thread now

[Mark Parsons]

The Azores high hasn't plagued us this winter......it's just another possible outcome which is against the trend of the winter so far.

[bobbydog]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Oh God no! 

Please ECM, no more!

Coldies are beginning to feel like the girl out of Poltergeist. 

When she utters those words, no more!

The ECM might be about to start another wild goose chase!

hi nick, on the face of it, the ECM doesn't look bad at 240 but how does it differ (as in its evolution from there) from the GFS at that time frame?

ECM

GFS

the trough coming out of the US is sharper and the one over us is more elongated but with the GFS, our low stagnates and dissipates-

at 264

then 24hrs later, its gone and opens the gates to the azores high.-

just wondered what your thoughts were as to how the ECM would differ going forward, with those apparently 'subtle' differences over the atlantic.

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles mean chart has westerlies in by next Sunday, but reamplification out west again at T240

That's the next wild goose chase nick Sussex was talking about.

Alot of waxing and waning of the Azores ridge makes me nervous everytime a model shows it.

 

[samadamsuk]

59 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

funny isn't it. when the models, (which respond to the input data taken from the ever-evolving weather) suddenly switch from showing a mild outlook to a cold one, they are brilliant. there are enthusiastic discussions around which one did the excellent job of picking up the signal first. ( unless they show mild, then they are "cannon fodder") and how well they are performing. yet when the opposite happens (like now) suddenly they are "junk" and its a "debacle" as to how poor they are performing. thing is, this happens all the time - they evolve and the output changes frequently - but who notices in the middle of spring or summer?....

If I read this correctly, I supose I for one notice as I'm a heat and storm junkie - cold and snow is interesting but secondary for me. Any snow ruins my winter golf! You'll always get biases, preferences, folk defending what they want with counter arguments and anger amid calm discussion. Always been the same... live and let live I supose. Anywahow - Interesting week coming up, with some beefy showers even where it doesnt snow and and some imperssive bulk shear. Should be some photogenic cb anvils around..

Samos

 

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 

then 24hrs later, its gone and opens the gates to the azores high.-just wondered what your thoughts were as to how the ECM would differ going forward, with those apparently 'subtle' differences over the atlantic.

The extended eps broadlly agree 

[bobbydog]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The extended eps broadlly agree 

thanks BA. (i assume you mean with the GFS solution)

[shaky]

Icon 18z less deep by 10mb and ever so slightly further south!!still deepens rapidly as it crosses uk!!exit point around hull i think!!

Edited January 14, 2018 by shaky