Model output discussion - mid-winter

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Clutching at straws, I'll have some of whatever ensemble 1 had 

Being honest though, 6z were a poor set long term.

Now that would be a dream chart, 

NOTE THE AZORES HIGH ACTUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD! That’s what’s needed . 

Ladt time I saw a azores migrate northward was in a Michael fish forecast in 80s 

[bobbydog]

as others have said, more amplification on this run so looking better.

however... the storm keeps the same track and is even stronger....

 

[SLEETY]

Game over for a prolonged cold spell I think.Its too flat again after day6 AGAIN 

 

Back to fl to look for the bitter east wind that won’t verify anyway

[offerman]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Nonsense, but can we get back to model discussion please?

Nick , 

yes of course we can at 3-4 days. 

Much of the post and postings I stated were in fact 5-7-10 days charys forget it. 3-4 is generally more reliable BUT  sometimes even 3-4 days can play havoc. 

[karyo]

Horrid ICON with the low going through Scotland and no Atlantic ridge after that. The run ends with mild westerlies and an Azores High.

The GFS doesn't look good either. 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Horrid ICON with the low going through Scotland and no Atlantic ridge after that. The run ends with mild westerlies and an Azores High.

The GFS doesn't look good either. 

Yes it looks like a short sharp blast from the nw then our traditional set up moves in. Suspect fi will give something to cling to but it is becoming tiresome

Hopefully know build of pressure to the south ete

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 Charts

 

Okay... real charts

UKMO/GFS/GEM

      

It does look increasingly likely that after a chilly week we will see further bands of rain move in from the west next weekend as opposed to the winds swinging northerly with scattered showers down coastal fringes. This could still change of course.

 

[karyo]

15 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it looks like a short sharp blast from the nw then our traditional set up moves in. Suspect fi will give something to cling to but it is becoming tiresome

Hopefully know build of pressure to the south ete

I have seen a lot of failed cold spells over the years but this seems so sudden! Up to yesterday the only questionmark seemed to be whether the shortwave will track further north or further south but the cold spell still looked on. Now it is just a chilly spell, pretty unremarkable really.

[Singularity]

You can certainly see here why the models are leaning strongly toward an MJO phase 3-4 pattern of more westerly motion in the N. Atlantic followed by increasing Euro heights. 

Time is running out for the recovery of the situation if this is truly to be a 'false' signal. Just a hint of the possibility from the improved ridge out west on day 5 of the 12z GFS but then it somehow managed to push the cold away even faster than the 06z.

The behaviour of the LPs by Canada is so near in time now that a fair bit of it may just be how the three areas of low pressure happen to be timed relative to reach other. So even with a 'false' MJO signal there could be that push from the west... but there would then in theory be a pretty fast push back into Europe of the main trough. Room for 1-3 days variation on the timing of both the milder arrival and the colder return, though. Good luck to those giving guidance for next weekend and/or beyond!

Oh and following on from the above plot, the EC Monthly of 12th was great for the Pacific activity we need for Feb;

Talk about waving about a massive carrot (looks a bit past its best though) - let's hope it proves the real deal this time.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Singularity

[igloo]

14 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it looks like a short sharp blast from the nw then our traditional set up moves in. Suspect fi will give something to cling to but it is becoming tiresome

Hopefully know build of pressure to the south ete

yes its trying once again in deep fl for another go of the azores to rige up for the 100th atempt it may just happen this time for a change but short term the NAO looks to be going positive by a fair amount 

[Snowmadsam]

I’m not calling this now or next week, I’ll call it at the time. The runner is the issue, we have to see where it goes. That’s it in a nutshell I think. 

Lets see what ECM says, you never know this can still turn around

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I have seen a lot of failed cold spells over the years but this seems so sudden! Up to yesterday the only questionmark seemed to be whether the shortwave will track further north or further south but the cold spell still looked on. Now it is just a chilly spell, pretty unremarkable really.

Was just about to quote the same. I bet nobody saw this coming. I think trust in the models will be at an all time low for quite a while after this debacle. 

[blizzard81]

And just to rub a whole shovel of salt into the wounds, GFS brings in blow torch south westerlies towards the end. Oh well, chins up! It's Monday tomorrow lol. 

[daz_4]

Yesterday

Today 

Same old story with the high pressure in the south. How many years now? This is a year without winter here in Europe. It's just November streched over three months.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Yesterday

Today 

Same old story with the high pressure in the south. How many years now? This is a year without winter here in Europe. It's just November streched over three months.

It's been a shocking performance by all the main operationals over the last couple of days. Your post clearly illustrates this. 

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

I’m not calling this now or next week, I’ll call it at the time. The runner is the issue, we have to see where it goes. That’s it in a nutshell I think. 

Lets see what ECM says, you never know this can still turn around

The runner"low pressure" isn't the issue its the lack of ridging after the low zips threw . There is nothing pushing north in the atlantic and it just flattens out

Edited January 14, 2018 by swfc

[doctor32]

Looking dam right ugly that deep low that intensifies over the uk, track still to the north and this will likely change over next 48hrs or so.

Timing of this low will be the main thing as a rush hour storm not good for people in affected areas.

These wind gusts inland are strong and will likely be very damaging!!!

As it stands snow to rain then back to snow as it clears into the north sea for NE England with the main concern those damaging winds on southern flank...

Meto forecast mention both rain,snow and strong winds in latest update too (which was not even mentioned this morning) so more support for low to be further north now??

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I admire your optimism but can anybody recall the last time that happened? I certainly can't. 

I have to agree with you. It seems that we have to build a cold spell brick by brick but it just gets shattered with ease as we approach the event. This northwesterly looked good for quite a while but once again it gets watered down. I think the record low Arctic ice is messing up our chances.

[Methuselah]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

It's been a shocking performance by all the main operationals over the last couple of days. Your post clearly illustrates this. 

I wonder: would you be saying that if they were still on board the 'snowlercoaster'? What if they turn out to be correct?

[Northern Sky]

13 minutes ago, karyo said:

I have seen a lot of failed cold spells over the years but this seems so sudden! Up to yesterday the only questionmark seemed to be whether the shortwave will track further north or further south but the cold spell still looked on. Now it is just a chilly spell, pretty unremarkable really.

I'm not sure I understand this, particularly the last sentence. Looking at the latest GFS run we still have a potent PM spell - interupted for a few hours by the storm on Wed night. Yes the longevity has reduced by a day or so but in terms of the uppers and wintry potential it doesn't look much different, at least up until the weekend? 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I wonder: would you be saying that if they were still on board the 'snowlercoaster'? What if they turn out to be correct?

They will be correct now lol. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GEM rubbish model, but makes very little of the shortwave, doubt it's correct

[Walsall Wood Snow]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I admire your optimism but can anybody recall the last time that happened? I certainly can't. 

To be fair I think in the lead up to the cold spell in early December there were one or two odd days when the models backed away from the idea, only to improve again the next day. We do get led up the garden path though more often than not, particularly over the last few years as cold spells have been modelled many times, only to end up as little more than a brief chilly snap or abandoned completely. Very frustrating. And it's got to be said with Tamara's latest emphasis on what can go wrong (which to me highlights confidence that it will) my hopes for the remainder of this Winter are heading towards the floor. Even if we don't get anymore appreciable cold and snow, at least December saved this Winter from been lumped in with the boring and practically snowless Winters from 2013/14 to 2016/17, round here at least anyway.

[bluearmy]

25 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

and following on from the above plot, the EC Monthly of 12th was great for the Pacific activity we need for Feb;

Talk about waving about a massive carrot (looks a bit past its best though) - let's hope it proves the real deal this time.

The late Feb charts for the Atlantic didn’t show anything so assuming that did verify, the lag would bring cold in March - no thanks for down here - would prefer a nice spring for a change rather than slush and chill. 

[nick sussex]

A few GEFS survive the bloodbath and show what’s possible however the problem is it starts to go pear shaped as early as T96 hrs.

Its really the issue of upstream phasing and amplification.

There are still differences with how this happens even between the GFS and UKMO.

I think the priest is about to give the last rites but is waiting for the ECM to confirm whether there’s a pulse!

Not long to wait now if it’s a no then donations rather than flowers to the NW Lapland Fund!

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by nick sussex