Model output discussion - mid-winter

[DIS1970]

It really isn't worth looking much more than 5 days ahead as we all know what can and has happened.

[That ECM]

24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

this is oh so true, and of so many on here.

It is this which continues to be a constant theme in terms of combatting any remaining mythology or misrepresentation of posts.

Its not always about what one would prefer, but trying to put forward a realistic range of solutions that NWP may evolve towards. In that sense neither the models or the messenger should be hung out to dry, simply any biased expectations that may relate to either of these and have not been correctly managed.

I have only just started to pick up on the events of the past 18 hours or so. A quite large change in UK Met outputs re their Fax charts, and this extends to their upper air charts on the same link, scroll down and compare the 00z Friday with the previous issue for Friday. Quite a marked change with the upper ridge from the Azores not on he 12z but noticeable on the 00z output. I wonder what has caused their model to do this? It appears to have caused a similar change on the others although I have not had time took closely. It would be great to be able to hear what the senior man is suggesting in his techincal chats with colleagues in Exeter and elsewhere.

Who knows may be it is a 24 abberation-unlikely though!

Isn't this quiet unusual for the upper air charts to flip so much in a short time period? 

[Weathizard]

Clutching at straws, I'll have some of whatever ensemble 1 had 

Being honest though, 6z were a poor set long term.

[andymusic]

chin up folks - latest beeb forecaster just said - "don't know how far north/south the lows gonna be" one to watch - still up in the air even now - NOT DECIDED YET

[Dancerwithwings]

5 hours ago, offerman said:

Nice post snowbunting. 

 

Classic examples of too much excitement too far out and the charts letting people down as the event draw nearer. 

 

When will folks learn not to get their  aspirations and excitement up too much beyond 3-4 days. 

Time and time again it happens with the charts . Most of the time to the let down side for collies . 

I love the cold and snow. I too once always looked too far ahead getting excited only to be let down. I see so many others doing the same. You can’t predict the weather so far out. Just look to charts 3-4 days within but even these can change but should be more reliable timeframe as rule of thumb. 

You constantly keep on making it apparent that folk shouldn't look too much beyond 3-4 days and you have your reasons but it folk want to comment on anything past this time-frame whether it's folk showing their excitement so be it....I'm sure it was the Model thread the last time I looked not the Short range model discussion for sure

Edited January 14, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, andymusic said:

chin up folks - latest beeb forecaster just said - "don't know how far north/south the lows gonna be" one to watch - still up in the air even now - NOT DECIDED YET

Tbh its the ridging that is the problem in the atlantic. Granted this may indicate a better set up coming across the atlantic and separation of said depressions

Edited January 14, 2018 by swfc

[johnholmes]

32 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Isn't this quiet unusual for the upper air charts to flip so much in a short time period? 

It is quite unusual although I have to say it only in the past few weeks that I have regularly looked at the Met O upper air on their Fax outputs

[Man With Beard]

Quite odd reading the thread. Today is the first time that we've had any clear direction from the EPS for 24-26 January and it seems to provide reasonable hope for more Atlantic ridging. Very much at odds with most of the posts I've read today!

It's all going to be about the storm this week though, still hitting N England or S Scotland for me.

[andymusic]

oh well yer we go again 12zs - will they offer some solace or more pain?

[Yorkshirepudding]

Looking decent for West Yorkshire area. As heavy Snow showers follow the weather front as it passes West to east. Then Tuesday heavy snow showers for most the day accumulation likely even to lower levels. The interesting day is Wednesday when the next weather front moves in from the Atlantic. Last night the models showed the low slightly lower with the leading edge of the snow focused in the midlands now with the slight change the leading edge is over the northern half from around Manchester up to Scotland with rain below. With the low pushing up through to Scandinavia. Although there's still a great uncertainty as the the actual track if it runs in slightly lower it will bring more of the lower half into play. I expect a lot of changes between now and then. Even the smallest change can have a big impact on a lot. 

 

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Very consists ce GFS ref the direction of the Wed storm- was hoping for an adjustment south

[Matthew Gill]

The jet is not in a faverable position on the 12z only Scottish mountains for snow on Wednesday. Cold rain everywhere else. 

[Daniel*]

GEM 12Z does not really develop it at all out of kilter... snow risk with this model on northern flank.

[winterof79]

Rain to snow as the system moves through Thursday.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Rain to snow as the system moves through Thursday.

For Scotland and hills of northern England maybe...Rain or sleet elsewhere 

[Singularity]

 

Daring to hope a bit as the more southern LP by Canada visible on the 06z has merged with the one a little SW of Greenland on the 12z - more chance of getting that deep amplifying trough as per the ECM 00z. Jet angle not as good as that run had it though so it'll do well to slow things down so much during the following days.

Edit: As we seem to be stuck on +114 for a moment, here's a look at the difference in the jet stream. Notably more of a ridge again so at least some progress there.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Singularity
Jet Set

[Matthew Gill]

Very big gusts of wind there 

[Matthew.]

A disruptive rush hour on its way according to GFS then. If my memory serves me right didnt the same thing happen a few weeks back but a few hours earlier

[Day 10]

GFS desperately trying to help us out, a little better than the 6z with a slightly more amplified pattern.

[swfc]

Minimal better ridging pn the gfs 12z at the 120 range but no sign of an improvement so far

 

[NorthernRab]

19 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

The jet is not in a faverable position on the 12z only Scottish mountains for snow on Wednesday. Cold rain everywhere else. 

The GFS 12hz shows heavy snow to low levels in the north of Scotland on Wednesday. Inverness, Aberdeen etc aren't the mountains.

Around a million people live in the areas around and between the two cities.

Edited January 14, 2018 by NorthernRab

[offerman]

4 hours ago, Ian Francis said:

what is the scientific evidence for this statement?

 

Scientific evidence was on a BBC science program a few years ago. Very very  good enthusiastic  black female presenter . Was a  great program.  

[offerman]

2 hours ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

On the flip side. People looking at models for the first time this morning without knowing the last 3days events with 36-48 hours still out would be thinking "Potential" I've seen events change within 12hours. Given the change isn't as dramatic but still its changeable. One thing I've learnt over the years you can never predict the weather. Lol. 

Totally true. Agree. Can never predict the weather even at just 3-4 days out. 

Nice post. 

 

 

[kingdogleash]

Presenter would suffice! These days!

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, offerman said:

Totally true. Agree. Can never predict the weather even at just 3-4 days out. 

Nice post. 

 

 

Nonsense, but can we get back to model discussion please?