Model output discussion - mid-winter

[KTtom]

Unfortunately the atlantic is getting flatter run by run....without the azores ridging north it looks unlikely well get anything from the eastern side anytime soon.

Edited January 14, 2018 by KTtom

[Weathizard]

No change in the 6z unfortunately, flat as a pancake... looks in Game, set and match.

 

compare yesterday's 12z to today's 6z (6 hours earlier but point still stands) the difference here is clear and one that was alluded to a few days ago... trough phasing across the Atlantic.

[swfc]

At 114 on the gfs 6z its already apparent the atlantic ridge isnt there to any degree.Such a swing over 24-hours tbh and not looking like much change from earlier

Edited January 14, 2018 by swfc

[Mucka]

This a pretty amazing turnaround in 24h for just 5 days out given all models had the ridge.

today and yesterday GFS 06z

 

Edit

Weathizard beat me to it - the swine!

Edited January 14, 2018 by Mucka

[karyo]

16 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

GFS 6z shows that short wave development and it looks like it is further north around northern england into scotland looks to be the modelled track.

Although as Captain shortwave explained there are heights over the pole maybe this is the thorn in our side.

Although the warm sector it don't look awful but certainly not looking like a northerly or northeasterly ATM.

 

It is notable now how much the Azores High is taking control over Iberia and even parts of France as the week progresses. A few days ago it looks that the trough would sink over those countries.

[Daniel*]

GFS 06z is even more progressive but again chance of transient snowfall before turning back to rain.

[swfc]

Just a point looking at the nhp its not a case of the pv being rampant and actually looks weak.you coudnt write it but it is what it is living in the uk.

[mountain shadow]

GP was confident the models would overplay any Westerly influence so unless the teleconnection signal was wrong perhaps the models are being too progressive?

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS 06z is even more progressive but again chance of transient snowfall before turning back to rain.

Not strictly model related but does anyone actually like this? I absolutely despise when it starts snowing and slowly turns to rain! It's sickening, rain to snow I can deal with.. snow to rain, YUK!

 

Speaking of yuk... the 6z is looking sodden and pretty rancid for many, we always seem to get 20 against a dealers six and still manage to lose! Wretched Atlantic.

[Singularity]

The big question charging around my head this morning like a bull in a warehouse of flags: 

Is the trend by all but ECM an indication that the AAM/GWO related developments will be insufficient to override or at least majorly adjust the  response to MJO forcing, or is the recent +ve MT event and anticipated AAM/GWO behaviour a reason to expect that the models are insufficiently resolving the upstream pattern during days 4-6?

Times like this, the whole model watching business feels a lot less like a  good decision as to what to do with your life .

[snowfish1]

Oh dear it's gone pear shaped or its Been severely watered down so much so "FISH SHAPED" might be more appropriate. typical when you think you might get a lucky break that it all goes that way. It's pathetic really. GFS is only really showing what is going on in reality which sadly amounts to features not going the way  coldies would like yet again 

Edited January 14, 2018 by snowfish1

[MR EXTREMES]

Good news is from this chart that polar vortex is under attack with amplification and heights building in all sorts of places.

So with such a complicated setup I'd be inclined to view 96hrs as fi.

Nowhere near a done deal.

[MR EXTREMES]

2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Oh dear it's gone pear shaped or its Been severely watered down so "fish shaped" typical when you think you might get a lucky break that it all goes that way. It's pathetic really. GFS is only really showing what is going on in reality which sadly amounts to features not going the way  coldies would like yet again 

Although to be fair it's not reality until it happens.

Looks like a waiting game.

[swfc]

The insipid heights to the south and iberia are back on the scene again!!The jet was way south not more than 24 hours ago so wheres the swing come from???Singularity has just commented on this and maybe the models are a bit progressive! !hmmm il get my coat yet again

[Ice Day]

7 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Good news is from this chart that polar vortex is under attack with amplification and heights building in all sorts of places.

So with such a complicated setup I'd be inclined to view 96hrs as fi.

Nowhere near a done deal.

And that is the important message to take from this mornings runs.  The inter run variability is so huge that what's being seen at the moment will not be the final outcome, so whilst today has been poor, new signals could quite easily emerge over the next couple of days.  The PV is all over the shop so plenty more chances to come.

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Be surprised if i any snowfall from this, may get a sleet shower on wednesday, but that's that i'm afraid, going by the local bbc forecast, which has been quite accurate.

 

Fax charts show troughs approaching England and Wales from the Atlantic during Tuesday, which could increase the shower risk. After dark on Tuesday perhaps the best chance of a covering of snow to low levels of England and Wales almost anywhere.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MattStoke

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Good news is from this chart that polar vortex is under attack with amplification and heights building in all sorts of places.

So with such a complicated setup I'd be inclined to view 96hrs as fi.

Nowhere near a done deal.

my thoughts also...

the issue we have in the near term is a raging jet across the atlantic-

however by 144hrs its run out of steam-

at 192hrs the vortex is lost and a long way from home-

anyone making predictions for the rest of winter is making a brave call because at this point we are open to a world of possibilities. 

winter is far from over....

[MR EXTREMES]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And that is the important message to take from this mornings runs.  The inter run variability is so huge that what's being seen at the moment will not be the final outcome, so whilst today has been poor, new signals could quite easily emerge over the next couple of days.  The PV is all over the shop so plenty more chances to come.

I absolutely agree with you.

Very messy indeed.

But a fair few will see alot of wintry and stormy weather.

So enjoy what's ahead this week and hope that things improve over the next few days.

Hard to imagine that winter of 1962/63 was a la Nina winter.

Typical that this Nina is pain in the ass.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[Ruzzi]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I'd hardly call a yellow met warning for 2-5cm of snow severe and chaotic. There is nothing overly special about this westerly, it has just been hyped up.

Yes, the uppers are slightly colder than would normally be the case but the Atlantic will moderate these which is why most areas will still make it above freezing especially outside of any showers. 

That warning was issued on Saturday I believe, and it will most definitely be updated today or tomorrow morning. There is plenty of places in that yellow warning area that will see upwards of 6 inches, I'd bet even a foot in some places by Thursday. The amber warnings will be out before tomorrow evening and it will most definitely have a significant impact on large parts of Scotland. 

The models have consistently shown the showers packing in land on a strong breeze and plenty disturbances in the flow aswell so plenty of precipitation around and not exclusively to Scotland either. There will most definitely be some surprise snowfalls I would think in areas not expecting anything. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by Ruzzi

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

I absolutely agree with you.

Very messy indeed.

 

That's the 12z from two days ago.

No wonder you still think things are promising ?

[nick sussex]

The flattening trend shows no sign of stopping.

Each output just gets worse . It’s surprising to see such a backtrack given this is happening within T120hrs.

Unfortunately it rarely works the other way with milder solutions being dumped.

I’d be surprised if the ECMs op lasted past this evening. 

The GFS 06 still desperately trying to disrupt some shortwave energy se and the PV still looks disorganized with the main one towards Asia but still the UK manages to miss an open goal.

 

[MattStoke]

Here are the latest fax charts for Tuesday. Very troughy!

Probably the wrong side of marginal for low laying areas during the day time, apart from where showers are very persistent (NW mainly). A better chance after dark I would think. Marginality less of an issue for hills, of course.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MattStoke

[swfc]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Here are the latest fax charts for Tuesday. Very troughy!

Probably the wrong side of marginal for low laying areas during the day time, apart from where showers are very persistent (NW mainly). A better chance after dark I would think. Marginality less of an issue for hills, of course.

Yes id agree with that.Standard mid jan nnw flow with wintry showers and a covering at elevation in those 850s.It is what it is but not quite what folk were looking for ie atlantic ridge ete and going forward. 

 

[Daniel*]

Okay how often do we see this? Very rarely potentially all areas at risk of falling snow. Even Camborne..

[Thunderywintrysnow]

12 hours ago, doctor32 said:

Nope, however it could well produce some decent snow as it moves over... Many factors depending, as ever it will be different again in morning... But like everyone else on here we are all hoping it is in the right place to deliver something wintry.

*So the further north the better 

For us NE England folk!*

Is this far enough North for yea doc.