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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Only looked in graph form but despite the GEFS downgrading the extension of the cold the last 2 runs, there seems to be a slightly increased cold clustering on the EPS ext.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Can I be blunt!

The GFS 18 hrs run is dire for a number of reasons .

A dreadful looking storm , a flatter upstream pattern and the cold cut short.

There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty with how low pressure develops over the ne USA and this has a big impact downstream .

 

It is indeed terrible. However, trying to keep my positive cap on. The 18z is not exactly the most reliable run of the day. Let's hope this is the case tonight. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Just thought i'd post the NetWx MR model wind gust charts for Thursday:

viewimage.thumb.png.bebae59905dbd2cc11fa6d7ec8d71489.png viewimage2.thumb.png.c981dcf3a5e892cbefe570090c748801.png viewimage3.thumb.png.6a1aac9960d611854007cb9445095956.png

It usually has a good handle on speeds. A lot of other models tend to go a bit overboard.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Let’s hope the gfs 18z is an outlier tonight. But how many times have we seen the pub run picked up a new signal then we see it manifest across the board. Guess tomorrow’s runs may shed some light on the situation.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Ensembles look a bit pants longer term as well

09EA67FB-B6E2-4820-A153-9844983A7C14.thumb.gif.202839c40a0f9ea2551a6dc9deafabd5.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ensembles look a bit pants longer term as well

09EA67FB-B6E2-4820-A153-9844983A7C14.thumb.gif.202839c40a0f9ea2551a6dc9deafabd5.gif

The 12z's are better than the 0z's IMO - gefs pants though.

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Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
15 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Is that v slow? ~50 Km/h so 30 mph...?

For comparison, this is the graph of zonal wind against time for 18z. Needs to dip under 0 m/s for an SSW i think

grph.thumb.png.9203c633ca2df8116c6bbb6c0a9db823.png

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 minute ago, TomDav said:

For comparison, this is the graph of zonal wind against time for 18z. Needs to dip under 0 m/s for an SSW i think

grph.thumb.png.9203c633ca2df8116c6bbb6c0a9db823.png

Agreed, or at least that's what I thought, so reduced zonality perhaps but not convincing meridonality....

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
22 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just thought i'd post the NetWx MR model wind gust charts for Thursday:

viewimage.thumb.png.bebae59905dbd2cc11fa6d7ec8d71489.png viewimage2.thumb.png.c981dcf3a5e892cbefe570090c748801.png viewimage3.thumb.png.6a1aac9960d611854007cb9445095956.png

It usually has a good handle on speeds. A lot of other models tend to go a bit overboard.

Thats much further south than gfs!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 hour ago, shaky said:

Thats much further south than gfs!!

Indeed..

As thought!!!

The feature, is of water feed- and will use the irish sea as a funel..

And exact as an, L, type..as energy builds in behind dragging it horizontal- to the near continent.

Isobar tightening, as the feature gains..and destructive winds are highly likely..

The overall mechanics/dynamics imo are preety much on-..although a 100miles or so,- gradient is of much difference...

But a chanel zipper looking ripe!..

Moving on...

Usualy i would disregard the gfs 10hpa strat- and indeed all strat- synoptics..(gfs)

But this signal is of notable instance due to waving-and N hem situ...

And if this is being modeled near the mark...its an, eye opening aknowlegement!!!

And the rebounds are significant!!

 

18011800_1318.gif

gfsnh-10-360.png

gfsnh-10-360.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Not usually around at this time but I might as well comment on the 00z models running out. ICON noticeably further south with the runner low, GFS very similar to the 18z.

When GFS backtracks it tends to do so 2-3 days before the event, this I know from bitter experience of summer storms that fizzle out and sliding lows that dive south leaving us snowless here and so on. As such, chances of it doing so here would seem to be pretty good.

UKMO also north, which is worrying, as this is the sort of time it gets a handle on things; it doesn't appear as strong in terms of winds, though, which is a start.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Poor output this morning compared to recently it has to be said.

UKMO and GFS give sever gales and lashing rain from the runner low and both then flatten out and bring in the Atlantic.

gfsnh-0-102.pngUN96-21.GIF?14-05

UN144-21.GIF?14-05gfsnh-0-144.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Right a not so good morning. Apart from ICON it’s quite notably more S compared to 18z if I can recall all rolled out so far take the runner more north even UKMO. The threat of severe damaging gales is increasing across inland areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

My main concern is the shift from freezing (here) to torrential rain for six hours swiftly replaced by freezing again. That's going to make roads pretty treacherous, they've say they need a few hours to grit roads properly but there's barely a gap between heavy rain and freezing so it might be just main routes only.

Mid part of all the runs are too progressive, bringing the cold spell to and end by next Sunday.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

as usual when we get to the 120h mark it al starts to fold once again we seen this last week now its happening once again the NAO looks to be rocketing once agin for the second half of january i feel the only real hope for something longer lasting is a SSW event 

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GFS 0z is absolutely abysmal for the south with severe gales during the early hours of Thursday, frequent heavy rain, often windy and turning very mild by next weekend but remaining unsettled so it seems like the flood risk will be increasing once again. Coastal flooding could be a big concern for Wednesday evening & Thursday morning's high Spring tides especially through the Bristol Channel & English Channel 

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Some GEFS would bring widespread disruption (and maybe destruction), I count eleven of them whilst four would be relatively benign, the others somewhere in between.

The below would cause widespread problems, for example.

gens-8-1-102_ntq1.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

And there i was laughing at the arpege model from 12z last night as it  was prettty much the odd one out with the shortwave firstly being across northern scotland and then a completely different looking upstream!!but guess what looks like it was right and all the other models have followed it overnight!!i give it till 12z tonight to see a backtrack and if there isnt then well done to the lonely arpege from last night!!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Cold week ahead.....

But nearly all top models except ECM as it's not out yet have towards the end a flat westerly with Azores heights toppling towards the UK.

So the northerly and north Easterly have been removed from the latter model runs in 12hrs.

Can't say for sure if it's the right path but clear to see shortwave and eastern seaboard drama has once again unfolded.

Although this week and into next weekend looks very interesting weather wise.

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway

AT this moment of weatherforecasting the GFS models are the best in FLIPFLAP - think 6z will be winter or spring :D

IN 0z the Azores High is not our friend for winter but that is changed in 24 hours.......so lets see next 24 then

EC model 

66.gif

67.gif

Edited by Dennis
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Morning all, nearly choked on my Alpin this morning  when I saw the latest UKMO model. What a flip in 24 hours from winter wonderland charts to yet more tiresome milder charts. Gone the sinking European trough and in comes the Azores effect. ECM still shows some hope but think not all is resolved as the wave/ runner to develop along the PFJ not yet in sight of shorter range reliability. Could easily flip back again today to the charts most on here would desire.

C

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This country is just bloody annoying for coldies!! The amount of good runs that all of a sudden get watered down nearer the time is crazy....Still, time to turn this around but if not by the 12Zs then I think it’s not looking good - cold with some snow for some to enjoy next week still however .

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