Model output discussion - mid-winter

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

An emoji celebrating a storm that could kill people judging by the NWP?? Good grief. Modern humanity!

I didn’t see anywhere in his post suggesting celebrating a storm that kills. Just a storm that clearly is a preferred weather type of his/hers.

People slip and bang there heads on icy snow covered pavements as well, and die, so I don’t see your point.

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[steveinsussex]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

18Z ICON painting a picture of major disruption.

Hate the colours on this as to me red = worse than purple

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

An emoji celebrating a storm that could kill people judging by the NWP?? Good grief. Modern humanity!

The caveat of an interest in/love of extreme weather. No-one wants disruption, damage and death, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be excited by the prospect of some extreme weather. Comes as part of being a weather enthusiast.

[feb1991blizzard]

1mb temperature chart is toast.

[Banbury]

15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Lots of speculation of the anticipated runner feature - but we are 4 days away from when it is projected, and so expect further changes in coming model runs about its whereabouts, If I was the Met/BBC I would be saying there is large room for change up to the 24 hr timeframe, its a developing situation, we need to get to Tuesday first.

 

The Beeb have been fairly consistent over the last few days with regards a NWly then a Northerly , their latest forecasts have kept the LP further South I’d be amazed if they were as far out as GFS is suggesting 

 

of course the Op could well be on its own in the ENS

Edited January 13, 2018 by Banbury

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM has reload of Displaced PV attack from 23rd...after this initial assault i’m Of opinion that more of the same will follow.  So much to watch for....next week will be wild.... def...... especially towards back end of the week....beware too early easterly blast 

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cheshire Freeze]

Don't rate the ICON model but this is shocking...pretty much same areas as 18z GFS

90+ MPH gusts

The Metoffice will need to be on the ball with this one...anything close to those speeds and there is the potential for a risk to life and property. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

Higher/lower resolution are as useful as an, ashtray on a motorbike as things stand- @day6-8..

Its model diabolics, as the switch is on' and the instablility will throw nwp into meltdown for obvious reasons via our maritime positioning...

Some substantial weather in the offing..

And big ramifications @around day3/4 for evolvement!!!

Edited January 13, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Don't rate the ICON model but this is shocking...pretty much same areas as 18z GFS

90+ MPH gusts

would love the gusts but I want some snow to go with it.

[Had Worse]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

would love the gusts but I want some snow to go with it.

If the chart is accurate, thats what you'll get.

Snow>rain>no roof> loads of rain>snow.

[pdiddy]

36 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

If the 18z was to be correct then central Scotland could possibly come to a standstill come Thursday morning!

just as it was shaping up to be a fairly dry event for Edinburgh! 300 miles difference between GFS Op/Control and the Beeb's track of the low.

[TomDav]

Zonal winds at 10hPa 60N dropping to 14.6 m/s at T384

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by TomDav

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

Unfortunately the runner is deeper and further north at 96.  I like severe weather but I've a bad feeling about this one.  Need it south.

A bad feeling ... Yes exactly - I think what's bugging me is that storms normally shift their peak development spot west between T48 and T96 - normally that takes the worst away for the UK but in this case it would make make our west coast the bullseye.

[radiohead]

About 7 or 8 out of the 20 GEFS members have a more intense low than the operational.

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A bad feeling ... Yes exactly - I think what's bugging me is that storms normally shift their peak development spot west between T48 and T96 - normally that takes the worst away for the UK but in this case it would make make our west coast the bullseye.

Once again to -former posts..

Its in the flow for exactions of a drop feature, and exacting directly south @landfall..

Its got chanel zipper written all over it..

And its exit point will be of huge implications for setting up of placements thereafter...

Edited January 13, 2018 by tight isobar

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

18z is a rubbish run- started out so well!

Mind you it did this the other night...

onto the 00s....

The ensembles are garbage as well.

All deepening the low and taking it North for rain and gales - not sure why people prefer that to heavy snow but each to their own.

And for good measure the Atlantic ridge is disappeared quickly in this set.

Hopefully tomorrow will be better, especially as far as possible blocking later.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Mucka

[Snowmadsam]

Just finished my 1-9 shift and well what a stonker and then, what a stinker. The variability of the GFS alone shows it hasn’t really got a handle on the specifics of the pattern further ahead than Monday imo.

Bed is calling me! I may do an interesting post tomorrow, with some colourful charts!

How exciting!

[Ice Day]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A bad feeling ... Yes exactly - I think what's bugging me is that storms normally shift their peak development spot west between T48 and T96 - normally that takes the worst away for the UK but in this case it would make make our west coast the bullseye.

Indeed. We are running out of time to get sufficient southward correction to take it away from the UK. 

[Dennis]

 

[JeffC]

21 minutes ago, TomDav said:

Zonal winds at 10hPa 60N dropping to 14.6 m/s at T384

 

Is that v slow? ~50 Km/h so 30 mph...?

[bigdog1]

I think we are going to be in for a big surprise the way these models are not handling this weather predilections 

[ukpaul]

The shift south of the slider systems in December was still ongoing at 48h, as I slowly saw my chances of snow here slide away with it. That was 100 miles or so, at 96 hours out what happens is a lottery.

I’d tend to side with UKMO, given local knowledge but be open to other possibilities.

[TEITS]

2 minutes ago, bigdog1 said:

I think we are going to be in for a big surprise the way these models are not handling this weather predilections 

Hope you're right. However a disappointing trend to cut this cold spell short as the brief N,ly is replaced by a milder W,ly.

Based on the evidence so far around the 22nd/23rd is when the cold spell could end. Still plenty of interest beforehand.

[snowbunting]

Most of the ensembles are going for a more Nly track for that storm on Thursday. It is still a long way off, but the storm Caroline was also due centre over North England in this timescale but ended up just north of mainland Scotland.  But it is just one model/ and 1 run so if we see ALL of the GFS runs doing the same tomorrow, anywhere north of Yorkshire will get a lot of snow. I would love to know Tamara's thoughts on this cold spell and for the rest of January.

[nick sussex]

Can I be blunt!

The GFS 18 hrs run is dire for a number of reasons .

A dreadful looking storm , a flatter upstream pattern and the cold cut short.

There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty with how low pressure develops over the ne USA and this has a big impact downstream .