Model output discussion - mid-winter

[SMU]

GFS 18z - Amazing flow in from South of Greenland-

Our runner is already tilted better & further South...

[Weegaz]

At +69.....I don’t know if I should stand up for next frame 

[tinybill]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 18z - Amazing flow in from South of Greenland-

Our runner is already tilted better & further South...

steve could this  be  the perfect  storm!

[bluearmy]

Day 4/5 faxes seem to show the track being south of the ecm - but not by much o

strangely, the N24 just showed it’s track as per the Beeb website (as shown on previous page ) but this is way south of the latest FAX 

Edited January 13, 2018 by bluearmy

[MattStoke]

Low looks deeper with a larger mild sector to me. A touch further north too.

Edited January 13, 2018 by MattStoke

[Ice Day]

Unfortunately the runner is deeper and further north at 96.  I like severe weather but I've a bad feeling about this one.  Need it south.

[SMU]

The original exit point of the storm was further south out the states however the 18z Jet was slightly less attenuated at that point so it will come in through Ireland-

behind this a better ridge shape !

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Low looks deeper with a larger mild sector to me. A touch further north too.

Ay, we need it south, going to be 10 degrees in our locations on this 18Z

[Weegaz]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

The original exit point of the storm was further south out the states however the 18z Jet was slightly less attenuated at that point so it will come in through Ireland-

behind this a better ridge shape !

Raising temps and causing chaos?

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

At +69.....I don’t know if I should stand up for next frame 

Bit marginal in southwest Ireland 

[doctor32]

Deeper low, further north too on the 18z...

Lovely jubbly 

Hope it stays like this nearer T+0

Some very interesting weather this coming week after the past weeks bore fest.

[tinybill]

could  be  fun  if this comes  off

[Dennis]

the potential storm for wed/thursday isnt to say now where and how the track will be - they changes till tue/wed in the charts

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ouch...80mph winds showing in that strip Liverpool across to the Wash

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

the potential storm for wed/thursday isnt to say now where and how the track will be - they changes till tue/wed in the charts

 

hoped for cold, no quilts needed here down south

[Boro Snow]

3 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Deeper low, further north too on the 18z...

Lovely jubbly 

Hope it stays like this nearer T+0

Some very interesting weather this coming week after the past weeks bore fest.

Yep 100% agree we don't need it moving south 

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, tinybill said:

steve could this  be  the perfect  storm!

IF - and its a big if, it tracks further south (always a possibility), it could be another 18th Dec 2010 for you - I know your location got battered because there was an Ipswich town match on the day a late kick off and it was a blizzard - somehow the game got completed - I think.

[Ice Day]

Out to 132 and nowhere near as much ridging in the Atlantic, short-term not looking as rosy but could pull something out later in the run?

18z  12z 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Ice Day

[SMU]

18z is a rubbish run- started out so well!

Mind you it did this the other night...

onto the 00s....

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hoped for cold, no quilts needed here down south

It's a blip cold follows on in the run.! 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hoped for cold, no quilts needed here down south

 

They would only get blow away! 

[Long haul to mild]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

IF - and its a big if, it tracks further south (always a possibility), it could be another 18th Dec 2010 for you - I know your location got battered because there was an Ipswich town match on the day a late kick off and it was a blizzard - somehow the game got completed - I think.

Yes, Ipswich beat Leicester 3-0 and you couldn't tell where the white lines were on the pitch; amazing it got finished really.

I detest wind storms with every fibre of my being so I have everything crossed for lots of Southward corrections over the coming runs. Rather concerned that the 18Z takes it North again, there doesn't seem to be much of a consensus at all on its track at present. The UKMO isn't that interested in it at all (although I haven't seen the latest Fax charts) whereas the ECM and to a slightly lesser extent the GFS want to destroy the country with it!

Edited January 13, 2018 by Long haul to mild

[MattStoke]

11 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Yep 100% agree we don't need it moving south 

You both like cold rain then? Would be too mild for snow even in your locations. Mild section is all the way up to Southern Scotland. Ghastly run for large swathes of the UK from that system.

Edited January 13, 2018 by MattStoke

[tight isobar]

18z gfs ..

Needs to go on the wagon!!!

Its on the bender of all benders!..

To be expected- given the volitile state.

Pub run?..somebody shoot the landlord/lady..

 

[Had Worse]

God help us if its on the money. It might not be eye candy but it cant be ignored for that reason alone.