Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks very good to me Steve

PV once again becoming organised over eastern canada...........

[Steady Easterly]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/09-w-520-n/gusts-3h-mph/20180118-0900z.html

Those snow charts are as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Steady Easterly said:

Those snow charts are as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

I agree...

Small issue of the link not linking to a snow chart though 

Maybe wind can become the new snow 

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep 192 sub -8c expected across the Uk poss snow heading for the SW & Southern Ireland-

The UKMO graphic above looks not far North of London!

Indeed - just 30 miles further south and we're in the game.  With just about everyone else getting snow this winter, we deserve some luck!!

Edited January 13, 2018 by mulzy

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Indeed - just 30 further south and we're in the game.  With just about everyone else getting snow this winter, we deserve some luck!!

Yes we do!!

192

very very cold over any snowfields

double digit minus minima overnight!

Snow in SE Scotland & poss SE-

 

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Weather-history]

Crikey, +12hpa air into the Yukon at 72hrs

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes we do!!

192

very very cold over any snowfields

double digit minus minima overnight!

Snow in SE Scotland & poss SE-

 

 

I make it -15 on the higher res charts... -6/-7 fairly widely

[karlos1983]

Not far off snow heaven for a lot of people with this setup.

if we can get that energy (S of Greenland) diving SE we could be in business! Just needs to be a tad further south. fl I know, but still

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

The ECM good up to day 8 and then quite a different profile over Canada after that on days 9 and 10 compared to the earlier 00hrs run.

Quite a complicated picture with lots of shallow features spinning about and whether they phase with the upstream low.

Still that's well into the future so could  change in future runs.

[swfc]

Ecm kind of implodes at day ten

All to play for tho atm

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Crikey, +12hpa air into the Yukon at 72hrs

Quite toasty up there! 

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Ecm kind of implodes at day ten

All to play for tho atm

ecm 216 and 240 always seem to be weird and really hardly ever come to fruition - so no worries there right now

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

ecm 216 and 240 always seem to be weird and really hardly ever come to fruition - so no worries there right now

They never come to fruition when showing a powerhouse Easterly, however when they show a return to the Atlantic.....................................................................................

[Met4Cast]

A general sign that out "cold spell" (meh, if you live in the South) is going to end is cold air flooding across the Eastern Seaboard, this only serves to power up the jet and blast the Atlantic towards the UK. Something that seems to have become a consistent feature in winters over the last few years.

If you live in the North and West you'll do well out of this setup. If you live say, South of the M4 then hopefully rain and gales are your thing, because it looks like we'll be seeing plenty of that down here. 

Cracking end to the GFS with that Easterly but as yet, very little support for it anywhere other than the GFS Det, given the last "Easterly" I wouldn't pin too much hope on that one materialising. 

Having said all that, I'm off to look at houses, I'm fed up of living in the South now.

[Methuselah]

So what, one run from one model has gone the way-of-the-pear at T+240...and winter's over? What do y'all expect? A rerun of 1947?

Second thoughts - don't answer that!

Edited January 13, 2018 by Ed Stone
Apostrophe crime committed!

[Bazray]

4 minutes ago, Danny* said:

A general sign that out "cold spell" (meh, if you live in the South) is going to end is cold air flooding across the Eastern Seaboard, this only serves to power up the jet and blast the Atlantic towards the UK. Something that seems to have become a consistent feature in winters over the last few years.

If you live in the North and West you'll do well out of this setup. If you live say, South of the M4 then hopefully rain and gales are your thing, because it looks like we'll be seeing plenty of that down here. 

Cracking end to the GFS with that Easterly but as yet, very little support for it anywhere other than the GFS Det, given the last "Easterly" I wouldn't pin too much hope on that one materialising. 

Having said all that, I'm off to look at houses, I'm fed up of living in the South now.

No we dont like wind and rain south of the M4 - but hey, you kind of get used to it. If we cant get a few grains of snow out of this setup, might as well give up

 

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So what, one run from one model has gone the way-of-the-pear at T+240...and winter's over? What do y'all expect? A rerun of 1947?

Second thoughts - don't answer that!

yes, for god's sake let's not start looking for the end of this cold spell (not toppler or cold "snap") and enjoy it for a change

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM good up to day 8 and then quite a different profile over Canada after that on days 9 and 10 compared to the earlier 00hrs run.

Quite a complicated picture with lots of shallow features spinning about and whether they phase with the upstream low.

Still that's well into the future so could  change in future runs.

Fully agree nick, I'm just happy we are in for some cold weather action next week after this week's murky bore fest! Plenty of cold and even some snow to come on the Ecm 12z and plenty of time for day 10 to look better again!

Edited January 13, 2018 by Frosty.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair that chart does only say falling snow but mot of the location forecasts  for most parts of M'cr suggest sleety rain / rain all the way, that chart is way too vague, you have to specify elevations on a low res broad brush drawing like that.

It would have a better chance to be closer to the mark if next week's uppers were 3 degrees lower. Looking at the ECM, the upper air temperatures look marginal, varying from either side of -5. Not cold enough sadly 

[Singularity]

28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM good up to day 8 and then quite a different profile over Canada after that on days 9 and 10 compared to the earlier 00hrs run.

Quite a complicated picture with lots of shallow features spinning about and whether they phase with the upstream low.

Still that's well into the future so could  change in future runs.

Just caught up with this and I'm baffled by the movement of that trough after day 8. Even with shallow disturbances phasing it seems difficult to believe that the trough could make so much progress in the face of a large pool of stagnating cold air and with not much kick likely to the jet stream.

Maybe it's still giving the MJO forcing more weight as this at least would put some sense behind ending up with a SW wind direction over here. Still much to be resolved there although I have seen some  reports on mountain torque activity that are encouraging. I will have to leave elaboration on this to others as there's only so much I am allowed to detail on here.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has higher pressure edging in from the west UK remaining cold and mainly dry

 

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, karyo said:

haha!

Maybe 20cms worth of precipitation but I can't see that much snow on low ground settling with such marginal upper air temperatures and a wind from the Irish sea.

Even 20cm of precipitation is ridiculous. that's nearly 8 inches of rain! 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has higher pressure edging in from the west UK remaining cold and mainly dry

 

Horrendous chart going forward.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Horrendous chart going forward.

Agreed! No slider on offer in that chart. The Atlantic ready to take control.

[comet]

You definitely get the feeling that something is brewing as we head towards late Jan and on into Feb. Even the ecm t240 chart although going the way of the pear for us has a very promising configuration especially for our side of the pole. Coupled with strat forcing and a favourable MJO signal charts like the gfs 12z op is showing may not be far fetched at all and may well be bettered over the coming days. That is a long way off though and much water to get under the bridge before then especially with what's being modelled for the coming week. My concerns being pehaps not as cold as the gfs would have us believe nor as snowy apart from the more favoured locations.