Model output discussion - mid-winter

[andymusic]

47/62/63/2010/2018 - and the UK comes to a grinding halt lol

 

[Singularity]

Well well well.. it went and trumped the MJO signal after all! Nice one GFS 

One of the most credible easterlies I've seen in a while from lower-res... but that still leaves it far from certain .

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello Feb 1st 2009.

[Jason M]

I rea

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh GFS!

Trop vortex FUBARed on this run...hmm a repeating theme

Wonder how many easterlys we can get in the GEFS this run?

I like this run. It just makes sense.... trough drops to SE, pressure builds NE, boom. As you say GEFS will be very interesting to see how much support is present.  

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

At 300 hrs there were 5 or 6 GEFS members going E'ly in the 0z suite...

Let's hope for a few more on this evenings suite, the trend could start to build!

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Chuffing heck! 

Did Steve Murr hack into the GFS supercomputer!!!1

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Let's hope for a few more on this evenings suite, the trend could start to build!

There was strongish support on the 0z GEFS for a pressure rise where we see it on the 12z GFS...

This was the mean anomaly at 336!

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[Chesil View]

 

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello Feb 1st 2009.

Judging from when the cold and snow is progged to start I would have said more like 1947.

[Mucka]

Good news on the runner as GFS ensembles much improved over the 06z set.

We should the "mild" spike wed night (shown below for Central England) largely toned down.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good news on the runner as GFS ensembles much improved over the 06z set.

We should the "mild" spike wed night (shown below for Central England) largely toned down.

Barely there on the control

 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

 

Judging from when the cold and snow is progged to start I would have said more like 1947.

Yes although I really think people are overplaying this PM air - yellow warning for Tuesday only for NI and Scotland and Mat Taylor mentioned a light covering in places.

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes although I really think people are overplaying this PM air - yellow warning for Tuesday only for NI and Scotland and Mat Taylor mentioned a light covering in places.

early days on the warnings yet - you watch them update come tomorrow or monday

[Jason M]

If I was offered that run on condition of seeing no more snow this winter or next winter, I'd bank that every time. That easterly would just keep on coming.

No doubt the pub run will sober us all up 

Edit - allowed myself a little ramp there!!!

 

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Jason M

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, andymusic said:

early days on the warnings yet - you watch them update come tomorrow or Monday

Hopefully (definitely too early for amber or anything being stated with any certainty but they usually would have a broad brush be aware warning for Tue up by now)

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Barely there on the control

 

So different to the Aprege http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php

[CK1981]

Nice to see an easterly develop in FI. Let’s hope the momentum builds in future runs. For those wanting lasting snow, an easterly with deeper cold is definitely the best option. A repeat of February 1991 would be great!

Edited January 13, 2018 by CK1981

[karlos1983]

I’m taking any fl easterly with a lorry load of salt!! Not falling for that one again. Nice to see, but we’ve got a runner hurdle to get over this week and we still don’t know if it will develop into a nasty storm or not and where it will track. Easterly nailed on with tooth picks at the moment, at best!

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS sharpening up and intensifying at day 8 on that HP wedge east of Greenland

Also note the slight low anomaly in the Atlantic is now negatively tilted, unlike on the 6z mean...

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hopefully (definitely too early for amber or anything being stated with any certainty but they usually would have a broad brush be aware warning for Tue up by now)

already been updated to include northern Ireland - can see no reason why they won't add further areas shortly and not just for the snow - the wind on Wednesday night will feature too I expect - gonna be a busy week at the meto with warnings this week and possibly for a good couple of weeks of wintriness if the gfs is to be believed

[SLEETY]

6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

If I was offered that run on condition of seeing no more snow this winter or next winter, I'd bank that every time. That easterly would just keep on coming.

No doubt the pub run will sober us all up 

Edit - allowed myself a little ramp there!!!

 

 

Could one gfs fl chart just verify once in its life lol 

[Chesil View]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes although I really think people are overplaying this PM air - yellow warning for Tuesday only for NI and Scotland and Mat Taylor mentioned a light covering in places.

Yes Feb I should have explained a bit more.I was looking at it from the genuinely cold uppers covering the whole country which starts in earnest around the 19th/20th Jan just like 1947.

Cracking run from GFS 12z albeit FI for the real action however at least its not an easterly from the European Con Model. lol

[nick sussex]

In terms of any ridge development to the nw NOAA think more amplified is more likely over the USA which would keep the low further west  and should develop a stronger ridge:

...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
SEEM LESS THAN NORMAL. OVERALL... THE 06 UTC GFS/GEFS AND 00 UTC
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEM FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED FOR THE MOST
PART THIS WEEK. THAT SAID...PERHAPS THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROXIMITY AND ENHANCED THREAT POTENTIAL FOR THE
NERN US. THE CLOSER TRACK TO THE COAST OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES OFFERS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND SEEM A BIT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LEADING INTO
DEVELOPMENT. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS ACCORDINGLY
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE PIECES...BUT THE
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES WERE MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED.
 

That won't however include this evenings runs but seriously calls into question the GEM output.

[snowice]

Well it's great to see the mood  lifted after a few dismal years for coldies. Loads of runs to look  forward to in coming week,  the ECM should be a cracker and hopefully the models continue to show something for everyone next week. 

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20 minutes ago, karyo said:

So different to the Aprege http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php

Yes indeed a 500 difference, a lot to be resolved

 

[Frosty.]

According to the latest models, n.Ireland and most of scotland are going to get blasted with strong winds and frequent, heavy hail and snow showers from mon pm onwards and yellow be aware warnings have already been issued. Some amazing output again today, especially the Gfs 12z low res..hopefully all coldies will see some wintry weather both next week and further ahead!..Big Ecm coming up❄❄❄❄❄❄❄