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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
3 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

I think this speaks for itself

iconeu_uk1-38-102-0.png?13-17

Painting by numbers but I dont understand the scale or the french./

 

Will someone translate.

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in the vale Contributor

in the vale

Posted
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Sancerre.
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
Posted

Cloud cover - Red = low, Green = mid-layer, Blue - high.

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

h850t850eu.png

Typical eh, sliding so sharply it misses entirely.

Slack flow in such an airmass would be seriously cold at the surface (ignore the GFS 2m temp charts, they are absolutely hopeless when winds fall light and have been known to overshoot by as much as 6*C).

 

To me the UKMO 12z does look a bit too positively tilted with the trough by Canada on day 6 for my liking. In theory, if the AAM/GWO forcing trumps that of the MJO, we should see the more negatively tilted scenario of the GFS 12z - but nothing is ever fully dependable when it comes to the weather at that range!

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
2 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

I think this speaks for itself

iconeu_uk1-38-102-0.png?13-17

Looks like streamers galore approaching from the Southwest, party streamers!!!

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted
3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

doesn't really look like the next lows gonna get in intact either due to the cold freezing air already over us and lying snow helping it to keep it that way

A good sign from t153 is that the low pressure in the labrador sea just sits there not moving, i always worry when then get past the southern tip of greenland 

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Painting by numbers but I dont understand the scale or the french./

 

Will someone translate.

cloud cover (composition of red (low) green(middle) blue (high))

Edited by ArHu3
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

npsh500.png h850t850eu.png

At this point AAM/GWO > MJO would lead to further undercuts of the stagnant cold airmass with entertaining results.

Welcome everyone to Hypothetical Central :laugh:

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

npsh500.png h850t850eu.png

At this point AAM/GWO > MJO would lead to further undercuts of the stagnant cold airmass with entertaining results.

Welcome everyone to Hypothetical Central :laugh:

Hypothermia Central more like.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Looks like an under cutter @240 on GFS-

Yep, 264 and here comes the easterly....

gfsnh-0-264.png?12 gfsnh-1-264.png?12

Cold uppers getting dragged westwards over the UK.  Not sure how long it will last though.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Massive difference between 06z and 12z GFS in FI. From Azores High to Azores low. Would take anything past next weekend with a huge pinch of salt!

 

 

6A26FDA6-31EB-4660-B31B-B7DEA5532AC1.png

8149516E-8686-4C9E-AAEC-78B2DC9F76C0.png

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted (edited)

 Good run, no doubt about that. If were going to get an easterly this winter this will be the moment IMHO. GFS looks a plausible solution and whilst that's no guarantee its a good start :)

Edit - Right on cue, lovely old school easterly in FI. 

 

Edited by Jason M
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Oh GFS!

Trop vortex FUBARed on this run...hmm a repeating theme

gfsnh-0-300.png?12

Wonder how many easterlys we can get in the GEFS this run?

Edited by CreweCold
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted
16 minutes ago, Singularity said:

h850t850eu.png

Typical eh, sliding so sharply it misses entirely.

Slack flow in such an airmass would be seriously cold at the surface (ignore the GFS 2m temp charts, they are absolutely hopeless when winds fall light and have been known to overshoot by as much as 6*C).

 

To me the UKMO 12z does look a bit too positively tilted with the trough by Canada on day 6 for my liking. In theory, if the AAM/GWO forcing trumps that of the MJO, we should see the more negatively tilted scenario of the GFS 12z - but nothing is ever fully dependable when it comes to the weather at that range!

If it trump's well then Norway is the place to be.

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Oh GFS!

Trop vortex Fubared on this run...hmm a repeating theme

gfsnh-0-300.png?12

Wonder how many easterlys we can get in the GEFS this run?

Absolutely......just the -10's over the whole country at 324.  It's nailed on surely!!!

gfs-1-324.png?12

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

Absolutely......just the -10's over the whole country at 324.  It's nailed on surely!!!

gfs-1-324.png?12

At 300 hrs there were 5 or 6 GEFS members going E'ly in the 0z suite...

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Can't grumble.

If GFS 12z is on the money my location will see snow events from the W,S,N and East over a 10 day period with snow showers between.

Of course it won't turn out that way but sure to see some of the white stuff.

 

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