Model output discussion - mid-winter

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Perturbation 4 is scary

The intensity of the low drags the cold air under its southern flank rapidly

 

That's an absolute snorter - a true blizzard!.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Despite some support from the models for this devilish storm next Wednesday/Thursday, the chances are most of the models (especially the ICON 06Z) are over-blowing that little monster. And by the time the day arrives itself, the Low (if it definitely happens) should end up much slacker and consequently may result in it taking a more Southerly track. This of which may increase wintry possibilities for places.

Clearly something to keep an eye on anyway and, if it does come off like what some of the current models are showing, I guess we may have to all vacate to the Moon!

[Weather Boy]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Despite some support from the models for this devilish storm next Wednesday/Thursday, the chances are most of the models (especially the ICON 06Z) are over-blowing that little monster. And by the time the day arrives itself, the Low (if it definitely happens) should end up much slacker and consequently may result in it taking a more Southerly track. This of which may increase wintry possibilities for places.

Clearly something to keep an eye on anyway and, if it does come off like what some of the current models are showing, I guess we may have to all vacate to the Moon!

Can someone explain to me why everyone thinks that the track will be more southerly than currently progged?

[MildCarlilse]

15 hours ago, ghoneym said:

I'm from a snow starved part of Scotland but I understand why the guys often don't mention us, we are very fortunate to live in a country where we are topography enhanced compared to many low lying areas down  South, also by far the majority of folk actually posting in the MOD forum are from down south so go figure. 

Go figure what my friend? I assume the model discussion includes Northern Ireland and Wales too,not just England? I’m confident this developing pattern will deliver wintriness to many who have missed out so far.As some have also said,I find this NW/SE flow intriguing especially as it qualifies as a blocking pattern.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Best chart for my location on GFS 06Z

[Banbury]

35 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Well its still there on the 06..

The sytem is arriving/happening so thats reliable. Definately a wet and windy week for most, after the storm is another matter.

It was your reference to wet and windy you should have thrown in or maybe white and windy , currently we don’t know 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Can someone explain to me why everyone thinks that the track will be more southerly than currently progged?

If it deepens less it will have a less northerly track. however, the open wave op options on show this morning are not really Southern based. Given the dynamics of the flow it is engaging with, I would be waiting for Monday before thinking too hard about where it goes and what it’s likely to verify as (open wave, slack depression or deep depression). 

[Chevron12345]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

It was your reference to wet and windy you should have thrown in or maybe white and windy , currently we don’t know 

Models show wet and windy..for most. 

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Models show wet and windy..for most. 

Could you please post some evidence I.e precip charts etc

Edited January 13, 2018 by winterof79

[Donna3397]

1 hour ago, radiohead said:

06Z ICON

 

Is this snow or rain?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

Is this snow or rain?

windspeeds/gusts, but my French not great

[LoisE]

Wind speed . Vent is French for wind. 

[Donna3397]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

windspeeds/gusts, but my French not great

Thank you it’s me being a bit stupid and nit reading it correctly sorry

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

1 minute ago, LoisE said:

Wind speed . Vent is French for wind. 

And rafales is French for gusts.

[tynevalleysnow]

20 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Is this snow or rain?

Wind speed in KPH

 

[MP-R]

25 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Is this snow or rain?

Wind haha.

[Frosty.]

Happy to see there is no strong signal for anything particularly mild during the next few weeks, just looked at the GEFS 6z mean and it looks generally cold throughout, especially for most of next week into the following week so I would anticipate plenty of opportunities for wintry ppn in the form of showers and frontal, cold enough for snow at times, especially further north and with elevation as well as lots of frosty / icy nights.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

An interesting week coming it would seem with fresh to strong WNW'ly winds and frequent showers, no doubt primarily of rain for the south and lower ground but the possibility of snow to lower levels in the north and to altitude almost anywhere with the "fun and games" of a vigorous secondary LP crossing the south on Wednesday/Thursday bringing a potentially disruptive spell of rain and strong winds.

By the end of the week the trough is moving out to the east and south east and a northerly brings in some very cold air with the likelihood of a couple of frigid nights and especially where any snow has remained.

Where do we go from there ?

ECM 12Z OP at T+240:

If you want a definition of a messy chart, there you go. The Atlantic looks weak, the Azores HP is suppressed well to the south but there's little evidence of northern blocking either.

GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

The Atlantic wins through albeit without much power. The differences in NH profile with ECM are considerable so no surprise it's a different evolution.

GFS 06Z OP at T+240:

The Atlantic in charge to a degree but still some hint of a negative tilt to the trough so you'd think the LP would head SE rather than NE. 

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

Takes this to another extent as the LP deepens sharply and slides SE into France but the HP builds back strongly behind it.

Picking the bones out of the METO 30-day summary there's an argument for an MLB to set up near the British isles and then sinking south allowing milder Atlantic air to return into February. The GEFS show the Azores HP becoming more influential with time but its orientation and position still very much up for grabs. It COULD ridge in strongly toward the UK sending the jet back north but it could inflate in the mid Atlantic keeping the N'ly or NW/'ly flow going. Nowhere near resolved yet.

[Man With Beard]

57 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Can someone explain to me why everyone thinks that the track will be more southerly than currently progged?

I think because the last couple of snowy lows have also gone south. Difference here is no embedded cold ridge ahead. Also, I suppose many of us are guessing it won't be as intense come the day, and that would probably mean a slight correction south. I wouldn't be so sure imo.

[ArHu3]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

That’s horrific. Major storm affecting large swathes; why do I feel this is going to be v nasty? A lot of structural damage with 111mph = 180km/h. Plausible this may be the most potent storm in years.

Storms like this hit us and you every few years (in 2013 even twice) , so nothing really out of the ordinary, still not to be underestimated and could be dangerous though 

 

Interestingly there have been many destructive storms between 18th and 25th of January in the past 

Edited January 13, 2018 by ArHu3

[Daniel*]

As the east gets a snow blitz from screaming easterlies not this time, the snow machine activates for N/W Britain. The showers will be very frequent almost continuous, just look at this ppn chart! 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Storms like this hit us and you every few years, so nothing really out of the ordinary, still not to be underestimated and could be dangerous though 

It is out the ordinary the extreme NW the Hebrides tends to see very strong winds that isn’t that unusual but not in more populated regions. A once every xx storm the ICON shows. For some you better hope ICON is nowhere near. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Daniel*

[karyo]

Just had a chance to check the models and I am a bit disappointed with the development of that stormy low. It basically interrupts the cold spell and any snow turns to rain. I don't mind a stormy spell but not in the expense of the cold. 

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

As the east gets a snow blitz from screaming easterlies not this time, the snow machine activates for N/W Britain. The showers will be very frequent almost continuous, just look at this ppn chart! 

Pity it will turn to rain by Wednesday night.

[Snow Grain]

The deep low pressure is being over played by the models along with the shower activity.

we are looking at a windy week with showers, mostly of rain, away from elevation.  Showers reducing towards the end of the week with some sharp frosts.

day time temperatures generally between 3 and 8 degrees c.  After next weekend we may see higher temperatures move in from the west.  I am not seeing enough HP to the north at present to assist in giving more interesting weather for coldies.

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

Just had a chance to check the models and I am a bit disappointed with the development of that stormy low. It basically interrupts the cold spell and any snow turns to rain. I don't mind a stormy spell but not in the expense of the cold. 

Pity it will turn to rain by Wednesday night.

you've no idea the exact route it'll take yet until closer to the time - so who knows where the line will be drawn for who gets snow/sleet/rain/blizzard/hurricane etc etc