Model output discussion - mid-winter

[OfficialKevWX]

Hoping further outputs change the track further south and more shallow, wouldn’t enjoy this at all IMBY

[Daniel*]

A lot of options there for the runner feature, you can see by the increased spread a southern track could be as far S as northern France. Some of the 00z perbs rather than a closed low feature, just develop a ‘wave’. Bringing about an increased risk of snow and none of the wind element. I have a feeling the wind element will end up prevailing. 

Most S 

Most N

 

[feb1991blizzard]

This strat warming isn't going to be enough unless its followed up quickly - its fizzling out in FI now on a most runs recently without doing enough to the vortex, its a temporary displacement unless we get some wave 2 quickly afterwards.

[swfc]

Pretty rank fi to be honest but obv not to be taken with anything but a pinch of salt lol.imo the nw folk look in the firing line next week but the eastern side of the pennines may catch something wintry if the flow backs north.im of the opinion this storm "if it happens"will transfer south .

 

[SMU]

I think if we set aside the runner for a moment the bigger picture seems that increasingly cold air pushes south at the End of the week

The ECM provides enough of a block to ensure that we continue in that vein out to tues / weds which by then in slack Northerly air will see some very surpressed surface temps- the ridge at 168 is all important because the more we can wedge in there the more it can bend the jet away to the south @192-216...

S

[nick sussex]

Let’s hope the low gets weakened and instead of some ghastly winds people would have a better chance of snow on the northern flank of that.

In terms of trends after the low clears whats been evident since the GFS 12 hrs run is a much cleaner evolution which is better because we really need to develop a decent ridge to the nw.

The GFS 06 hrs run makes a further small correction west , a bit more sharper upstream and we’re hoping for energy to disrupt off that upstream low and help carve out even a weakish high pressure cell to the north.

 

[Bazray]

Forgetting about the cold and snow for a minute - how much potential does this storm have, looks pretty nasty!

 

 

[offerman]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think if we set aside the runner for a moment the bigger picture seems that increasingly cold air pushes south at the End of the week

The ECM provides enough of a block to ensure that we continue in that vein out to tues / weds which by then in slack Northerly air will see some very surpressed surface temps- the ridge at 168 is all important because the more we can wedge in there the more it can bend the jet away to the south @192-216...

S

That high in the Azores is a bit too causing the doubts. Like you say thought Steve toward the end of the week once that vicious low passes through the cold really does set in and switch more northerly too. Any attempt by Atlantic weather looks slow and might have a bit of a battle and some transitionary snowfall. Because of the longevity of the cold before that Tues Wed the longer the deeper the cold is often more difficult to shift out of the way. 

Looking great overall before and after that low for coldness . 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Forgetting about the cold and snow for a minute - how much potential does this storm have, looks pretty nasty!

 

 

Worst case scenario 80-90mph gusts inland. This could affect areas as far north as Highlands or through then heart of England I don’t favour it going so north. Or potential, there may be hardly any wind, with the main focus snow.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think if we set aside the runner for a moment the bigger picture seems that increasingly cold air pushes south at the End of the week

The ECM provides enough of a block to ensure that we continue in that vein out to tues / weds which by then in slack Northerly air will see some very surpressed surface temps- the ridge at 168 is all important because the more we can wedge in there the more it can bend the jet away to the south @192-216...

S

At T240 on ec op, the min (midnight) showing is -16.2 C. The same run in twelve hours would show even lower for 6am

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

At T240 on ec op, the min (midnight) showing is -16.2 C. The same run in twelve hours would show even lower for 6am

What area is that for please?

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What area is that for please?

north side of the Southern uplands. Draw a line East of Ayr, south of Glasgow 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What area is that for please?

Some Scottish glen?

However -15C possible in England I would think on T240 if there’s snow cover. A really frigid night. Very cold continental air & slack flow extremely cold.

[radiohead]

06Z ICON

 

[snowbunting]

2 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Some confusion here. If that low tracks further north, it will introduce milder air making the storm a rain event mostly, before and after would be snow mind you. If it’s snow you’re after, you want this storm to track further south by about 300 /400 miles and be a much shallower affair. Lots of posters also saying they see this as actually being further south than being modeled. That to me is pure hopecasting!!! One thing is for sure, if it stays as programmed , it’s going to be a wild one!

Sorry was thinking about us on Scotland if it tracks further north. Not only would we get the snow but if it tracks slightly further north it will also bring very strong winds. However, looking at the models it looks very likely it will take a more Sly track and introduce a direct Nly to us by the end of the week. 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

06Z ICON

 

That’s horrific. Major storm affecting large swathes; why do I feel this is going to be v nasty? A lot of structural damage with 111mph = 180km/h. Plausible this may be the most potent storm in years.

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters show that low for Thursday increasingly likely though not a cert just yet

Just one cluster for D8-D10, showing the cold spell extending at least until D9

Still too mixed in D11-D15 to make too much comment

[tight isobar]

As-regards the speculative LP into the mix of the pm incursion- im still of faith this will end up ripping through western most england-/irish sea before becoming a partial chanel zipper...and running through southern most counties before being chassed of into the continent.

The vent graphs are of note, as the veering has tell-tale signs, the ec snap- also relays this somewhat as the creature is squeezed through the irish sea...and the backing of north westerly winds start to buckle the flow...

Just my thoughts atm and no doubt as per ,track and placements will wobble and twist....

And great modeling/viewing on this one coming up!

And to add-some vivid signs of a notable cold spell once the pm flow rips through, and a range of options are open for this.

Edit; some will be in for a notable dump of snow from this...but far to early at this stage for decipher!

Edited January 13, 2018 by tight isobar

[bobbydog]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That’s horrific. Major storm affecting large swathes; why do I feel this is going to be v nasty? A lot of structural damage with 111mph = 180km/h. Plausible this may be the most potent storm in years.

timings are crucial here as well. the GFS has the peak of the storm overnight when most people will be at home/in bed but the ICON has the worst starting around 7 in the morning. thats potentially massive disruption during rush hour and danger to life. that would warrant a red warning from the MetO for large swathes of the country.

at this range, storms are usually modelled more intense than they turn out to be and the track further south. however the modelling of this storm is becoming disturbingly consistent amongst a good few of the major models....

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

That potential storm brings some very mild temperatures, possibly back into the teens across English Channel coasts and up towards South Wales along with severe gales, heavy rain and also the tides will be high too, so the flood risk returns again. It's starting to look a repeat of the dreadful first week of January all over again 

[Sky Full]

43 minutes ago, radiohead said:

06Z ICON

 

75mph gusts widely inland across the midlands and 100+mph gusts on western coasts and high ground.  There will be some roofless housing and power cuts unless this downgrades over the next few days.  Would not want to be on the west coast next week but I don't think it will happen quite like this - bound to be further south by the time it reaches us.  

[Chevron12345]

4 hours ago, Banbury said:

Looking at the variation in the models what’s reliable ?

Well its still there on the 06..

The sytem is arriving/happening so thats reliable. Definately a wet and windy week for most, after the storm is another matter.

[shaky]

Shame about that low!!could have been looking at an uninterrupted cold spell from monday night but doesnt look like it now!!still cold air follows quickly behind the low i guess?

[Weather-history]

Perturbation 4 is scary

The intensity of the low drags the cold air under its southern flank rapidly

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

7 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Well its still there on the 06..

The sytem is arriving/happening so thats reliable. Definately a wet and windy week for those living South of the M4, after the storm is another matter.

Corrected your post - all in jest of course!