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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

I think forget snow on Wednesday Evening /Thursday morning here, temps touching 10C on the 114h chart.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hi steve...any thoughts as to why there seems to be a complete lack of mention of snow in the tv forecasts?

Seems odd given the models..

It has been mentioned on the news  weather fotrcast but I don't think atm it warrants much of a mention imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

I think forget snow on Wednesday Evening /Thursday morning here, temps touching 10C on the 114h chart.

Really not on wetter they aren’t , in fact nowhere near that 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Closer view of that low with the uppers.

108-7UK.thumb.GIF.7a59f993de4708cec648544b135337a8.GIF114-7UK.thumb.GIF.1749a94f044519b2481e4ab883eef1ce.GIF

Not long before back into a pretty cold flow.

132-7UK.thumb.GIF.4dff7b7fd21c205da8dbced058a42412.GIF

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Does the gfs pick up the trend first because it comes out first?  On that basis, we will be paying homage to the icon more often than not! 

To be fair its funny you mention icon cos thats the run that picked up slightly higher heights across iberia before the north westerly sets in!!ecm followed and then the rest!!

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hi steve...any thoughts as to why there seems to be a complete lack of mention of snow in the tv forecasts?

Seems odd given the models..

They will appear tommorrow!

T138 2 more troughs swinging in

F3D930F2-7905-431A-A359-1CBCD5F92239.thumb.png.15fb3436bcb231b2e96670b8b0a60f25.png

one just west of Scotland & Ireland, the other one about 150 miles NW of irelandIreland

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Really not on wetter they aren’t , in fact nowhere near that 

Not really important, but they are not wrong.

120-582UK.GIF?13-6

9/10C across a fair chunk of England and Wales on Thursday morning. Any accumulated snow over these areas from the previous days gone as well so for more of the UK to enjoy this spell uninterupted we need this low to shift south on future runs. Scotland/ northern Ireland and northern England still look pretty good for several days of below average temperatures and the risk of wintry precipitation from Monday afternoon onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

They will appear tommorrow!

T138 2 more troughs swinging in

F3D930F2-7905-431A-A359-1CBCD5F92239.thumb.png.15fb3436bcb231b2e96670b8b0a60f25.png

one just west of Scotland & Ireland, the other one about 150 miles NW of irelandIreland

Surely snow quite widely on these, not just at altitude. Shame that wed event not looks like rain with the warmer uppers , really hoping for an adjustment south to bring that back to snow 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

OMG!  Black hole heads for Wales!

image.thumb.gif.19137142fb7195528bfd92b53e6f2c7d.gif   image.thumb.gif.91e27ce7719a21ea8939a2927512f60d.gif

Even after a downgrade, the GFS 06Z still predicts a nasty storm with wind gusts over 80 mph.  Surely even the most ardent storm fan would not wish for these conditions over the UK - almost certain structural damage and injuries - or worse - would result.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Get that low up the west side of greenland at 160 hours plus and would be looking at a great nhp going forward on the gfs 6z

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Makes perfect sense to me.

Just imagine trying to produce a forecast at the moment for next week. I would say chance of a blizzard anywhere from the M4 to Scotland. Chance of winds in excess of 90mph or it might be just a bit breezy!

If I was responsible for producing forecasts for next week I would be very wary and only focus on the next couple of days ahead.

Overall though I am pleased with the output. The wind veering to a N,ly seems to be agreed upon but what happens beyond is still up for grabs.

Spot on, a forecast now would be as accurate as a standard express headline with all the variables 

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

OMG!  Black hole heads for Wales!

image.thumb.gif.19137142fb7195528bfd92b53e6f2c7d.gif   image.thumb.gif.91e27ce7719a21ea8939a2927512f60d.gif

Even after a downgrade, the GFS 06Z still predicts a nasty storm with wind gusts over 80 mph.  Surely even the most ardent storm fan would not wish for these conditions over the UK - almost certain structural damage and injuries - or worse - would result.

As a South West Walier, this storm really does need to shift further south. It does concern me with these gusts.

This really is red warning territory we are getting into wind wise. 

If the system does not deepen so much I would expect yellow/amber warnings in the snow line areas

Edited by Snowmadsam
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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

OMG!  Black hole heads for Wales!

image.thumb.gif.19137142fb7195528bfd92b53e6f2c7d.gif   

 

I know it's clutching at straws... but any chance that black hole will suck up the M4?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Lovely at 168....just 7 days away now.  

gfsnh-0-168.png?6   gfsnh-1-168.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Not really important, but they are not wrong.

120-582UK.GIF?13-6

9/10C across a fair chunk of England and Wales on Thursday morning. Any accumulated snow over these areas from the previous days gone as well so for more of the UK to enjoy this spell uninterupted we need this low to shift south on future runs. Scotland/ northern Ireland and northern England still look pretty good for several days of below average temperatures and the risk of wintry precipitation from Monday afternoon onwards.

Why would there be such a difference on the temps for that time period, wetter is different ( very different) weather apps are also very different.........just a question 

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Just now, MidnightSnow said:

I know it's clutching at straws... but any chance that black hole will suck up the M4?

Only the north side of it I’m afraid ;) 

Much to be watching, pleased I have work today so won’t be as active! But the model runs show the variability of the storm system and what happens next!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Sharper ridge in the Atlantic. Stronger heights over Russia on this run and looking more like the ecm from this morning.  If the gfs strengthens the ridge as we get to t0 what could follow might be very interesting. With regards to nearer time and tracking of the low, I hope it goes south and weakens but we won't know for awhile yet.

IMG_0362.PNG

IMG_0363.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Why would there be such a difference on the temps for that time period, wetter is different ( very different) weather apps are also very different.........just a question 

Wetter oscillates between minimum and maximum temperatures (for each period of time) according to the time of day whilst on meteociel you can switch between the two, so for the start of the day wetter has a minimum temperature. The temepratures do drop back into singles figures across the UK on Thursday as the low clears and NW winds return.

Anyway veering back on topic. we have a northerly for next weekend which has decent model agreement so perhaps showers will transfer towards eastern coasts if the wind veers enough to the north.

gfs-0-174.png?6

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Just now, northwestsnow said:

TBH it looks really cold and snowy after the low has barrelled thru on 6z .. :)

Fascinating model watching!!

It does doesn't it, I'm hoping the LP is modelled too far North by GFS, if it has its track right at this range then that's a big well done to it 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Understand why the northern contingent would be excited, but nothing much to shout about down here! The storm looks worry some, especially with the sodden ground

Edited by Weathizard
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