Model output discussion - mid-winter

[northwestsnow]

Well these lows do have a habit of trending further south as we approach t0..think  the vast majority will be willing it south again!

[radiohead]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Historically the gfs tends to overdo these systems, I can’t see it being that strong, hence why I’m convinced it will be further south. I think somewhere between the UKMO and GFS is best bet. 

 

If anything it appears more intense on the ECM than the GFS though, and the ECM is usually most accurate with the handling of these lows.

ARPEGE is only out to T102, but it's deeper than the GFS at this point.

Still enough uncertainty for changes to happen though.

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

If anything it appears more intense on the ECM than the GFS though, and the ECM is usually most accurate with the handling of these lows.

ARPEGE is only out to T102, but it's deeper than the GFS at this point.

Still enough uncertainty for changes to happen though.

At t120 I wouldn,t either the depth or the track yet.

[snowice]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Getting that deja vu feeling where we will all be watching this low for the next few days !

Fascinating model watching..

North of the M4 South of the M4 East of the M4 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

If anything it appears more intense on the ECM than the GFS though, and the ECM is usually most accurate with the handling of these lows.

ARPEGE is only out to T102, but it's deeper than the GFS at this point.

Still enough uncertainty for changes to happen though.

Yes ECM is nasty you’re right.. as a storm lover I’d take ecm or gfs, especially as im not really in the game for a snow event from it, next best thing is severe weather.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes ECM is nasty you’re right.. as a storm lover I’d take ecm or gfs, especially as im not really in the game for a snow event from it, next best thing is severe weather.

I'm a storm lover but these runners can be a whole different beast due to their RACY nature. If it hits just at the right time you'll catch it whilst it's bombing...mixed in with the fact that the conditions it has bred in are ripe for severe weather (gradient between HP and LP), it would not be a storm to be messed with. It wouldn't be your typical autumn blow. We're talking over land gusts of 90mph...something rarely ever seen.

If you look back through the archives, these runner type lows in tight pressure gradients have historically brought the UK some of its most severe storms and resultant devastation.

The burns night storm started in a similar way...

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm a storm lover but these runners can be a whole different beast due to their RACY nature. If it hits just at the right time you'll catch it whilst it's bombing...mixed in with the fact that the conditions it has bred in are ripe for severe weather (gradient between HP and LP), it would not be a storm to be messed with. It wouldn't be your typical autumn blow. We're talking over land gusts of 90mph...something rarely ever seen.

If you look back through the archives, these runner type lows in tight pressure gradients have historically brought the UK some of its most severe storms and resultant devastation.

Exactly 

Right up my street! Extreme weather is what I enjoy the most.

to be fair widespread snow and deep cold can cause devestation as well. It’s not an emotional subject for me, purely down to what is a passion for weather and all it can throw at us.

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[NO LONGER POSTING]

History tells us though that the GFS loves to blow low pressure systems out of proportion to back track closer to the event. 

The fact the ECM also shows it is odd usually you would have some kind of discrepancy between the 2 on its depth and track. 

At so far out though it could vanish altogether 

[Chevron12345]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

History tells us though that the GFS loves to blow low pressure systems out of proportion to back track closer to the event. 

The fact the ECM also shows it is odd usually you would have some kind of discrepancy between the 2 on its depth and track. 

At so far out though it could vanish altogether 

Not really, its pretty much in the reliable at 96hrs.

Pretty much a wash out Wednesday and Thurs exceptions of Scotland.

Temperatures around 5 degrees in the south, 7 in far south west, not that cold really.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Chevron12345

[MattStoke]

Thankfully, the UKMO takes that system further south as a more shallow feature. These things tend to correct further south with time. Perhaps the GFS and ECM saw people saying that yesterday and decided to spite them 

[Matthew.]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

History tells us though that the GFS loves to blow low pressure systems out of proportion to back track closer to the event. 

The fact the ECM also shows it is odd usually you would have some kind of discrepancy between the 2 on its depth and track. 

At so far out though it could vanish altogether 

It can be right though as the October ex hurricane went on to be 

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Not really, its pretty much in the reliable at 96hrs.

Pretty much a wash out Wednesday and Thurs exceptions of Scotland.

Looking at the variation in the models what’s reliable ?

[karlos1983]

It’s not likely to vanish now,  here it is starting life off the east coast of the US,

It looks pretty nailed on, it’s just how much it develops that will determine its track, less deep further south, deeper further north.

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[snowstorm27x]

If it was just gfs showing this storm I would think it's just gfs overpaying it again. But ECM joining the party and says you all what an Easterly so bad I will blow the UK to the east lol. But in all seriousness this could be brutal wind speeds of 90mph inland. Also I hope it dosen't coincide with high tide. After a dull weather week this week next week looks anything but.

[Jason M]

7 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Was it you that riduculed folk for ‘cherry picking’ cold synoptics by using GEM ensembles? The PM cold spell is far from bog standard perhaps ‘meh’ for us in the SE, nothing really significant however that runner may deliver if trends continue. There could be significant snowfall even south of the M4 a fun new week of dynamic weather approaches. A promising day it has been we’re not seeing last minute downgrades quite the contrary. 

you do have a nasty habit of making barbed posts like this and I know I have picked you up on it in the past. I respectfully suggest you think before you post and show a bit more maturity. Where I don't like posts I try to ignore them unless aimed specifically at me maybe you should do the same. Perhaps you could put me on ignore (I will be taking my own advice here)?

Had you read my post properly and in the proper context you would have realised it was not about cherry picking whatsoever, I simply made the point that we are IMHO reaching something of a crossroads and highlighting that there are two very different outcomes on offer. I also highlighted that some will do very well this week, but my view remains that this week is overall nothing out of the ordinary for a uk winter. Synoptically it's s bit unusual given the strong westerly component but in actual weather it's essentially a rather cold, windy wintry week.  Re this week if you expect something more extreme that's your opinion and I have no issue with it. People can look back next week and assess who was right. Fwiw I hope we do get lots of snow. A covering of wet snow can't be discounted anywhere this week but it's nothing unusual for the time of year in my view. That could change in week two if we get lucky.

People should be able to post without being jumped on for not predicting snowmaggedon. I know a lot of people get nervous about posting in here for that very reason,

 

edit it above based on last nights charts as only just catching up this morning!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Jason M

[MattStoke]

As far as I can tell, the Aperge has the low running on a similar track to the GFS and ECM out in the Atlantic but deepens it earlier . Maybe meaning it would weaken as it reaches the UK and end up going further south?

[Weathizard]

Not too happy with the UKMO this morning, sypnotically at 144 it looks pretty nice but earlier in the run the colder uppers are not sufficient for a lot of people, too much westerly influence IMO. 

 

Also the GEFS are trending against a cold reload that was quite strongly represented amongst the suites yesterday, a lot of scatter mind.

 

Ps: I'll have some of whatever the control had in FI please

Edited January 13, 2018 by Weathizard

[MattStoke]

GEM meanwhile appears to show a much more shallow feature running further south. Not a model I would rate highly though.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

107mph progged peak windspeed on ECM for Bangor N Wales...insane!

Up to 90mph even inland through the Sheffield/Leeds area

[snowbunting]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Just spotted this in the GEFS

I guess if it goes even further N you get total wipeout. Can't even see the space between the isobars, they've merged into one! Pretty much akin to a major hurricane in terms of windspeeds. Circa 120mph + gusts I'd imagine.

I think this just highlights the uncertainty of the strength and direction of that low. One to watch very clisely as it makes landfall. If it tracks further north that will almost certainly bring blizzards around next thursday. 

[Ice Day]

Just caught up on the overnight runs and WOW, what a set.  There's something for everyone with this batch, a true kitchen sink job.  The low shown on the GFS and ECM is potentially very concerning, but exciting to watch at the same time.  I think the ECM looks best for cold potential, UKMO close behind but even the GFS delivers cold/snow for most areas during its high res run.  The ECM and UK look pretty similar at 144 with ridging up towards Greenland.

ECM    UK  

Which leads the ECM to this at 168

To which the uppers respond accordingly

168  192  216  240 

If this pans out as shown, I would say at least 90% of members on here are in the game for some cold fun and games. Just need to see the runner drop south over the next couple of days to calm a few nerves!  Once this situation is resolved we then have the tantalising prospect of maybe some Scandi height rises in late Jan/early Feb.  To top it off the omnipresent SSW is edging closer each day....starting at 180 with this.

Leading to this at 324

We're going to need eyes in the back of our heads over the next couple of weeks.  What a great hobby!

 

[winterof79]

Lots of eye candy from what I've seen posted this morning.

Shame the met don't see it as actually occurring yet though.

[nick sussex]

Let’s hope that nasty looking low gets downgraded .

In terms of overall pattern we are moving towards a cleaner evolution. So phasing of low pressure over the ne USA and some ridging ahead in the Atlantic .

After that low pressure will track east and that’s where it gets more complicated .

The ECM just about keeps upstream energy and that to the east ne of the UK apart.

De Bilt clearly shows divergence point beginning around the 22nd January and that would be in relation to whether energy goes over the top or se wards.

Because we have excellent agreement upto day ten in terms of the key features then it’s really the handling of that next upstream low in terms of trough disruption that will decide whether the UK hangs onto the cold.

Edited January 13, 2018 by nick sussex

[Sky Full]

These are the main model ops charts at +120h from this morning, when the (slider/runner?) low is predicted to reach the UK:

ECM          

UKMO       

GFS          

GEM         

There are sufficient differences in the shape and position of the low to suggest that no model has this correctly progged yet and I suspect there will be be a considerable merging between the four, with the extreme GFS being much modified towards the almost non existent GEM version.....   More runs needed 

[Rocheydub]

16 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

I think this just highlights the uncertainty of the strength and direction of that low. One to watch very clisely as it makes landfall. If it tracks further north that will almost certainly bring blizzards around next thursday. 

Some confusion here. If that low tracks further north, it will introduce milder air making the storm a rain event mostly, before and after would be snow mind you. If it’s snow you’re after, you want this storm to track further south by about 300 /400 miles and be a much shallower affair. Lots of posters also saying they see this as actually being further south than being modeled. That to me is pure hopecasting!!! One thing is for sure, if it stays as programmed , it’s going to be a wild one!