Model output discussion - mid-winter

[KTtom]

Ecm 144 the best of the bunch ...better ridging in the Atlantic...

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes ECM showing a nasty storm like the GFS

 

Ideally we want it further S because this N'ly track showing looks very very nasty with the potential to be a very serious event. These runner systems are notorious.

I would take it if it meant a true blizzard - heavy snow with 100mph plus gusts.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS and quite possibly ECM are red warning territory for wind...

Plenty of time for changes though and the UKMO isn't interested and shows a much shallower wave feature.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would take it if it meant a true blizzard - heavy snow with 100mph plus gusts.

You can have your roof blown off or be knee deep in snow...one or the other, your choice

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM

[snowice]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

ECM

Mr Murr sausage?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, snowice said:

Mr Murr sausage?

No, the 'Murr Sausage' refers to a weakish area of higher heights lying roughly between Iceland and Scandi, enough to deflect the jet S and bring us an easterly (usually with sliders).

[chicken soup]

Seems to me this runner is nowt but a pain in the butt...all its doing is interupting the cold flow and bringing rain.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Seems to me this runner is nowt but a pain in the butt...all its doing is interupting the cold flow and bringing rain.

I can't see it being so far N (and thus as developed) as is currently progged. If it is, a lot of the country is in trouble RE wind due to the pressure gradient we're set to see next week. Rain will be least of the issues.

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[snowstorm27x]

So it might be short term pain for long term gain in terms of Snowfall as the EC and GFS both have the low further North giving only our Scottish friends some snow. But both go on to show a winter wonderland so basically seems all routes lead to cold what could go wrong. Cough, shortwave lol.

[radiohead]

Looks like GFS and ECM in agreement on that low being a significant windstorm. ECM has gusts up to 170 kmh.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Looks like GFS and ECM in agreement on that low being a significant windstorm. ECM has gusts up to 170 kmh.

Yes, was just about to say, I've seen the 3 hr intervals...Shows 90mph even inland!

[Thunderywintrysnow]

9 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

So it might be short term pain for long term gain in terms of Snowfall as the EC and GFS both have the low further North giving only our Scottish friends some snow. But both go on to show a winter wonderland so basically seems all routes lead to cold what could go wrong. Cough, shortwave lol.

No not just Scotland many others including N Ireland & that's the mean thing.

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Thunderywintrysnow

[northwestsnow]

In the interests of balance EC looks really good after the nasty storm pushes through.. decent ridge and the UK looks very cold..

[Cheshire Freeze]

107mph progged peak windspeed on ECM for Bangor N Wales...insane!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

I'm sure the track of Thursday's low, won't be nailed for a few days yet.

But if it were to track further south and be less developed, I could see it turning into a snow > rain > snow, event.

A very rare beast, indeed!

Regards,

Tom.

[Banbury]

Those EC snow accumulation charts are a waste of time 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Banbury

[Ali1977]

That low looks like the best opportunity for snow for many East of the Pennines so I’m sure many will want it to track further south. Those it does effect could get some severe drifting too, at all altitude should it snow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just spotted this in the GEFS

I guess if it goes even further N you get total wipeout. Can't even see the space between the isobars, they've merged into one! Pretty much akin to a major hurricane in terms of windspeeds. Circa 120mph + gusts I'd imagine.

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

Getting that deja vu feeling where we will all be watching this low for the next few days !

Fascinating model watching..

[Banbury]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Getting that deja vu feeling where we will all be watching this low for the next few days !

Fascinating model watching..

It seems that way mate , I’d like it further South though 

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

It seems that way mate , I’d like it further South though 

Yes preferably In the English channel..

[karlos1983]

Historically the gfs tends to overdo these systems, I can’t see it being that strong, hence why I’m convinced it will be further south. I think somewhere between the UKMO and GFS is best bet. 

 

[SMU]

42 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, the 'Murr Sausage' refers to a weakish area of higher heights lying roughly between Iceland and Scandi, enough to deflect the jet S and bring us an easterly (usually with sliders).

@240 it’s more like a chipolata but is does the job

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

@240 it’s more like a chipolata but is does the job

It's all about how it's utilised Steve