Model output discussion - mid-winter

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, Dean E said:

Just going to add these are all the members of that ensemble. There's -10c to +10c 850s in there, and everything in between...

Hardly a warming trend.

Anyway, great set of models today. Haven't had time to really delve into them due to work, but glad to see a big pattern change on the way for us.

The mean is the average and the trend is for that to increase. Didn’t think that would need to be explained....

[sausage]

3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Well, for a start, you can see by the mean it’s a warming trend. Secondly, it is mediocre (based on current output) as no deep cold is predicted. What exactly are you waiting for, some kind of nationwide deep freeze? I would hardy call maximum temperatures of 6c a surprise. Yes, they will fluctuate, but I think you’re expecting the unexpected to be fair.

 

i think youve got this totaĺly wrong. as above posts suggest! looking forward to you having egg on your face. being up here in west yrks looks good and so does down south. what do you want mild southerlies! just stop it.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

The mean is the average and the trend is for that to increase. Didn’t think that would need to be explained....

Temperatures still average at best to below average perhaps less cold but there’s a lot of scatter that’s what you would expect to see. I wouldn’t call that a warming trend not when many persist in keeping it cold, and from ~20th it could be more significant cold as there are decent hints we could pick up a flow more from the north / continent.

[Dean E]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

The mean is the average and the trend is for that to increase. Didn’t think that would need to be explained....

There is an increase in the average, you are correct. You are also correct that I didn't need that explanation.

However to then call the upcoming week 'a mediocre' cold snap is a bit premature. This is one shaping up to be one of the coldest NW'lys in many of a year. Looking ahead further than 5 days is anyone's guess right now, which the ensembles you shared notes this. Which I thought that didn't need explaining either 

[ronan]

21 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Yes, a general warming trend after a mediocre cold snap. Really can’t see anything too special in the grand scheme of things. Maybe early Feb will deliver.

Mediocre for where?? I think you will find that most of Ireland and the UK will do pretty good out of this!! Maybe you posted in the wrong thread? Regionals would have been better?

[sausage]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Temperatures still average at best to below average perhaps less cold but there’s a lot of scatter that’s what you would expect to see. I wouldn’t call that a warming trend not when many persist in keeping it cold, and from ~20th it could be more significant cold as there are decent hints we could pick up a flow more from the north / continent.

exactly. and what is that 10days away. when the ecm easterly was wrong agaim at 3days out. have to laugh sometimes. the mean isnt exactly going to go down to -10 is it!!

[CK1981]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

An interesting set ...

Yes, a general warming trend after a mediocre cold snap. Really can’t see anything too special in the grand scheme of things. Maybe early Feb will deliver.

[SLEETY]

I see the people from the Friday night pub crawl have entered the thread tonight.lol

A wintry week coming up with snow chances for many,hope the models show a better extended outlook as they keep trying to build High pressure  to the Ne and a NE  air flow,but it keeps getting cut off before it has time to develop properly.

Hope to see improvements soon in the next set of runs.

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I see the people from the Friday night pub crawl have entered the thread tonight.lol

A wintry week coming up with snow chances for many,hope the models show a better extended outlook as they keep trying to build High pressure  to the Ne and a NE  air flow,but it keeps getting cut off before it has time to develop properly.

Hope to see improvements soon in the next set of runs.

Would be nice to see a North Easterly or Easterly gain momentum. That would be the best option for deep cold. My comments earlier were in relation to next week. No deep cold showing and the usual locations (in the north with elevation) will do well.....but that’s standard fare for January. 

[Ruzzi]

Wow!!! What a waste of time! Difference of opinions.... fair enough, but take it to PM's to sort out the differences, or at least the banter/moans thread. 

Not having a go, just a polite request as it's rubbish at times trying to oversee a difference of opinions back and forth to actually read the informative and worthwhile posts. 

Cheers ? 

[Ali1977]

Warm sector coming in with next weds runner, with a kink in the jet. This bringing in more of a rain event along with it being more North again. Not ideal unless you live in southern Scotland!!

[Mucka]

That's a big warm sector that drops over us. Often warm sectors become more prominent as get within 120h so hope this isn't a trend.

 

Also low further North and more developed meaning rain for most England on this run - severe blizzards over the hills further North though.

UKMO keeps it further South though.

 

Looks like that little feature will keep us guessing for a while.

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Warm sector coming in with next weds runner, with a kink in the jet. This bringing in more of a rain event along with it being more North again. Not ideal unless you live in southern Scotland!!

0z shows it as quite a nasty little storm with severe gales and possibly snow even further S on its back edge

I reckon it'll land further S than the 0z models it though.

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

Good to see the Atlantic ridge back in fashion on GFS

UKMO 144

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good to see the Atlantic ridge back in fashion on GFS

UKMO 144

Indeed, Straight N'ly shown at day 7

[MattStoke]

GFS 0z takes the ‘runner’ low much further north. Rain for many parts of England and Wales as a result. Looks out of place compared with other model output though.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles all over the place re handling of the trough and possible Atlantic ridge so as others have said better not take any run too seriously as far as detail goes after 96h/120h until they settle down again.

A very interesting week of weather coming up next week for many.

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles all over the place re handling of the trough and possible Atlantic ridge so as others have said better not take any run too seriously as far as detail goes after 96h/120h until they settle down again.

A very interesting week of weather coming up next week for many.

I think we're possibly going to see a lot of chopping and changing in the outlook for the last 10 days or so of January. Possibly a brief relaxation of cold before it sets in once again? Plenty to keep tabs on...starting in the more immediate time frame with next week's PM blast!

Oh and I don't think we can fully discount an easterly showing up either...

Control run shows the possibilities as we approach the end of the month

In fact watching the GEFS trickle out, the suggestion for some form of Scandi/Arctic heights seems to get stronger the further towards the turn of the month we go...ensemble mean for pressure anomaly-

Oh and here's Murr's easterly... -14 clipping Kent

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 or 6 ensemble members go on to show E'lys at 300 hrs, more go on to show a Greenland high or Scandi block after this...steady as she goes.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO much further south with the low than GFS...

 

[tinybill]

morning    all   just looked at the  over  night updates all i say is  mr murr when he wakes  up  will be delighted  ,plus this is a  coldies  dream.!!

[northwestsnow]

 EC take the low too far north and introduces much milder air at 120...

[shaky]

That low is gona go north south in the next few runs!!!either side of that still looks snowy and cold so hopefully just a nuisance than anything else!!will probably change again next run!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 EC take the low too far north and introduces much milder air at 120...

Yes ECM showing a nasty storm like the GFS

Would be interesting to see the 3 hour plots after this point as I'd suggest it deepens rapidly whilst crossing the UK. Could be some major damage from it. GFS shows 80-90mph gusts associated with it.

Here are the GFS speeds as it crosses land..

Ideally we want it further S because this N'ly track showing looks very very nasty with the potential to be a very serious event. These runner systems are notorious.

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[BlackburnChris]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 EC take the low too far north and introduces much milder air at 120...

Not near a pc and only got my phone .. but is that bad for us in the NW