Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Blimey

Love a rainy south westerly do us southerners  

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's not a slider ??

its a runner ...........

and surely the models won't have its track right at T130

Bristol Channel runner perhaps or maybe the English Channel runner by the time it corrects South one would think ? 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Bristol Channel runner perhaps or maybe the English Channel runner by the time it corrects South one would think ? 

Starting to look like a rolly poly at the moment  

if it plays out as per the 18z, will be some wild weather down south

Edited January 12, 2018 by karlos1983

[Snowy L]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

For many areas it doesn't even look to be the correct side of marginal either.

--5 850hpa line track looks almost identical to the mid December slider. (up until the low exits, then it is even better)

Edited January 12, 2018 by Snowy L

[Snowyowl9]

1984 vs 2018.

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.htm

lhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.html

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Love a rainy south westerly do us southerners  

All snow in the Midlands if that verified (timing would be the key) at 1am temps would be around 0c and Dp's -1c ....Not again

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes Nick S - definite clearance of the trough - stonker coming up here.

EDIT : still a bit messy but some stellar charts for the East coming up.

Edited January 12, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

--5 850hpa line track looks almost identical to the mid December slider. (up until the low exits, then it is even better)

December:

Next week:

Edited January 12, 2018 by Snowy L

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

For many areas it doesn't even look to be the correct side of marginal either.

Probably need a more non rounded low, less of a mild sector, like the 5th Jan '98 one

Edited January 12, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ice Day]

Corking 192, cold flooding down from the NNE

 

[nick sussex]

If we could combine the GFS  18hrs run flatter trough with the more amplified ECM 12hrs upstream that would be good!

You'll all be relieved to know I won't be moaning too much now as I was after the GFS 12hrs run!

I'm happy to see the GFS at least hold back the shortwave which ran se into the Atlantic and keeps this locked much further nw.

Hold that! we're back to humpgate for those on here last night. The hump north of Norway!

Edited January 12, 2018 by nick sussex

[Catacol]

No time for lots of reading or long post tonight, but Nina base state pattern set to deliver cold zonal next week with snow for some and then we have signs of ensemble charts toying with a greater dig into Europe and suggested height rises to the N and NE. See GFS and ECM 240 hours below

Not too dissimilar, with azores high weakened. Some interesting times on the horizon, not for the first time this winter. Relative AAM on the sharp up.... MT spiking. The elastic band is pulling hard right as I type. How hard... and how high will it go??

Edited January 12, 2018 by Catacol

[nick sussex]

Although it looks like we might get the dreaded phase with the hump near Norway the earlier part of the GFS was more solid in terms of a decent foundation moving forward.

So after the GFS 12hrs which was a car speeding around a mountain road any moment about to go over the edge its a good run to end the evening.

[andymusic]

and another slider incoming lol

buried and pasted again

Edited January 12, 2018 by andymusic

[Ice Day]

At 240 it's an absolute dogs breakfast....not saying it's wrong but looks very messy.  Could be some FI fun and games coming up...

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Although it looks like we might get the dreaded phase with the hump near Norway the earlier part of the GFS was more solid in terms of a decent foundation moving forward.

So after the GFS 12hrs which was a car speeding around a mountain road any moment about to go over the edge its a good run to end the evening.

Interesting how as soon as that decisive low gets into the high res it has a much better attempt at undercutting... Doesnt succeed but still its a big improvement.

[MattStoke]

I know snow details are hard to pin down until very short notice but, the GFS appears to show more widespread showers for a time on Tuesday across England and Wales, and the BBC forecast showed a trough moving across around that time. Could bring more widespread wintriness to areas normally sheltered in a NWly.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

and another slider incoming lol

Yes!!!    -   I wish the GFS had that lying snow formula that the ECM has programmed into it - imagine the 384 chart on this run - anyone who could do with a good laugh might be wanting to see it.

Edited January 12, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Interesting how as soon as that decisive low gets into the high res it has a much better attempt at undercutting... Doesnt succeed but still its a big improvement.

Generally as soon as you get phasing you'd get a pull east of energy.

The GFS is doing its best to absorb the feature which comes down from Norway. I probably should stop calling it the hump because its not very met of me!

I think we want one of two outcomes either it gets south before the advancing shortwave or stays further ne and doesn't make contact; You could be lucky in that you get the slider and as that clears se it adds a tug to the trough energy and brings that down afterwards.

I really hope we can just get over the initial hurdle and get the trough sufficiently se because theres a lot of potential . I know the dreaded P word !

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I know snow details are hard to pin down until very short notice but, the GFS appears to show more widespread showers for a time on Tuesday across England and Wales, and the BBC forecast showed a trough moving across around that time. Could bring more widespread wintriness to areas normally sheltered in a NWly.

Further to that. Fax charts show a number of troughs in the flow.

[blizzard81]

Looks likely to be a 1 week cold spell. There was a slight trend on some of the gfs ops over the last few days to build heights over northern scandi next weekend but that signal has disappeared today and thus far the ecm ops are not interested in that sort of scenario. Still time for this signal to return but I am not hopeful. 

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Generally as soon as you get phasing you'd get a pull east of energy.

The GFS is doing its best to absorb the feature which comes down from Norway. I probably should stop calling it the hump because its not very met of me!

I think we want one of two outcomes either it gets south before the advancing shortwave or stays further ne and doesn't make contact; You could be lucky in that you get the slider and as that clears se it adds a tug to the trough energy and brings that down afterwards.

I really hope we can just get over the initial hurdle and get the trough sufficiently se because theres a lot of potential . I know the dreaded P word !

gfs as usual as soon as it hits low res goes into it's "oh the zonal train is coming" so doubt it's gonna happen like that - every chance that slider could well drag the easterly back on the wrap around - we shall see, a lot of weather to get through before that though and most of it of the wintry kind.

[Frosty.]

There's snow galore on the 18z tonight and prolonged cold spell setting in next week..very happy with the models today, hopefully plenty more great charts tomorrow too!

[Mapantz]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes!!!    -   I wish the GFS had that lying snow formula that the ECM has programmed into it - imagine the 384 chart on this run - anyone who could do with a good laugh might be wanting to see it.

Not quite the same as it isn't a final total, but, about the best I could manage. 12 - 384h, 6 hourly steps.

 

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Mapantz

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks likely to be a 1 week cold spell. There was a slight trend on some of the gfs ops over the last few days to build heights over northern scandi next weekend but that signal has disappeared today and thus far the ecm ops are not interested in that sort of scenario. Still time for this signal to return but I am not hopeful. 

Well that's 1 cold week more than the last few winters anyway lol