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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
Just now, Malcolm Edwards said:

Oh why oh why can't we down in marazion be in the pink for once.

 

Some nice rental properties available this side of the pond next week Malcolm, being your sledge :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Further south..

07643813-C020-43DE-80C0-FFA91695B28B.thumb.png.a05162a8513e058167ebb72708fdcc7a.png34D7A459-0DE7-44D8-9BA1-3DC0E054716B.thumb.png.aeae310198497b037f2ff8095e865c79.png

If corrections south carry on, the Channel Islands should be on alert lol

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Don't need to live on a mountain any more for the white stuff :yahoo:each run getting colder:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Slider modelled slightly south of the last run, still looking like a midlands event at the min 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

18z looks pretty much the same as the 12z so far. Although a few pockets of -8 uppers showing.

'Runner' low coming up shortly. Looks to be on a similar track to the 12z as far as I can tell.

I think Matt, it's perfect for us, so likely means the 18Z is wrong! as most say, and fully agree, this will be way further south

gfs-0-126.png?18

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Just now, andymusic said:

wales and the midlands gets pasted again from the low

gfs-2-126.png?18

Like another 50 miles? If that could happen, that would be great! :)

More IMBYness but why not? I knew I should have given the 18z that extra shot of tequila! 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Another little shunt south of the runner at 126.  Milder sector only just scraping into the south coast.  I would guess this feature could well miss us altogether, which would probably not be a bad thing in the long term?

gfsnh-0-126.png?18 gfsnh-1-126.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

Oh why oh why can't we down in marazion be in the pink for once.

 

what is marazion?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

Oh why oh why can't we down in marazion be in the pink for once.

 

Or the green...well you live on a narrow peninsula that juts out, relatively warm waters to the north / south and west of you. If you want snow Cornwall is not the place to be. For snow down there from a PM airstream it would take something exceptional I’m unfortunately not seeing it, however later on this month may be more fruitful. I think hail will be the wintriest ppn you’ll see, there will be a lot of showers for you pretty grim probably.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

This should please @nick sussex 

ABB8D736-62B2-4C21-AB38-9B55D1331506.thumb.png.f45d5a144168ac5ba0c6b5efb9ff1ab6.png

cleaner! 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I think Matt, it's perfect for us, so likely means the 18Z is wrong! as most say, and fully agree, this will be way further south

gfs-0-126.png?18

Most other models take it further south, as far as I can tell. Pros are talking about it being further south and these things tend to correct further south anyway. Shame. Might just have to make do with the Cheshire Gap streamer instead ;-)

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It's not a slider ??

its a runner ...........

and surely the models won't have its track right at T130

For many areas it doesn't even look to be the correct side of marginal either.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It's not a slider ??

its a runner ...........

and surely the models won't have its track right at T130

Yup, it starts life off the SE coast of USA, and runs up and over the high in the Atlantic. Doesn’t slide down from the NW.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

This is the geographical problem..

Slider now exacting south/south east..

Likely a chanel low to be modeled as early as o0z suites..

However..id stick to this format given my location ?..

 

gfs-0-126.png

gfs-2-132.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Blimey :help: Wouldn't fancy being on a ferry would you:bad:

126-102UK_yog6.GIF

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 102 

A site to behold - deep unstable cold flow -8c just reaching NI

Total wipeout in the flow-

11D5C7BA-4FA3-4AA3-B185-608CC0940B29.thumb.png.ac35ab835181c483a606e08b7cfc8cb3.png

 

PS the slider is going to be further south this run ;)

Well Steve it makes a change for you to look to the Northwest for snow  ....:cold::yahoo::hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 18hrs run holding back the Pacific originating shortwave, more amplified over Arctic Canada.

A better chance of the trough clearing further se.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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