Model output discussion - mid-winter

[ghoneym]

1 minute ago, MildCarlilse said:

Oh,Scotland missing out???

I'm from a snow starved part of Scotland but I understand why the guys often don't mention us, we are very fortunate to live in a country where we are topography enhanced compared to many low lying areas down  South, also by far the majority of folk actually posting in the MOD forum are from down south so go figure. 

[Snowy L]

19 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Anyone know how to access the Dam lines for gfs?  Remember the 528 blue and 510 lines? Are they now gone from charts?

Its on the mean cloud cover tab for some bizarre reason

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=33&run=12&time=105&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

[Daniel*]

3 foot of snow on GFS 12Z for some oddly includes sleet however should be all snow above 200-250 meters even half of that would be impressive. I suppose it is plausible such is the rareity of a sustained cold WNW flow... NW England brace.  

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

3 foot of snow on GFS 12Z for some oddly includes sleet however should be all snow above 200-250 meters even half of that would be impressive. I suppose it is plausible such is the rareity of a sustained cold WNW flow... NW England brace.  

The reason it includes sleet is that this I presume is the total that falls from the sky, not accumulating! Note it says total snowFALL, not snow depths/accumulations.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Nick L

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

3 foot of snow on GFS 12Z for some oddly includes sleet however should be all snow above 200-250 meters even half of that would be impressive. I suppose it is plausible such is the rareity of a sustained cold WNW flow... NW England brace.  

Yep someone’s going to get smashed.

Buxton or Glossop or sperrin are my top 3.

[tinybill]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep someone’s going to get smashed.

Buxton or Glossop or sperrin are my top 3.

bbc news 24 weather 9 55 should  be good !!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep someone’s going to get smashed.

Buxton or Glossop or sperrin are my top 3.

Normally you would think that but yesterday on the GFS, places like Burnley and Blackburn were coming out with 25cm with Peaks (1000ft) less falls.

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

3 foot of snow on GFS 12Z for some oddly includes sleet however should be all snow above 200-250 meters even half of that would be impressive. I suppose it is plausible such is the rareity of a sustained cold WNW flow... NW England brace.  

Looks like it’s taking into account the runner going through on Wed around the midlands area.

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The reason it includes sleet is that this I presume is the total that falls from the sky, not accumulating! Note it says total snowFALL, not snow depths/accumulations.

That makes sense to me! But look at the Alps monstrous amounts after a snow bomb so much snow it could be bothersome. We could be looking come the end of winter snow records broken there. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks like it’s taking into account the runner going through on Wed around the midlands area.

will track further South, they always modelled too far north

[joggs]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep someone’s going to get smashed.

Buxton or Glossop or sperrin are my top 3.

Our lass after model suit tonight

[Ali1977]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will track further South, they always modelled too far north

Will see how it’s modelled on the pub run, can’t see it going further North though. 

[Cymro]

34 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

I'm from a snow starved part of Scotland but I understand why the guys often don't mention us, we are very fortunate to live in a country where we are topography enhanced compared to many low lying areas down  South, also by far the majority of folk actually posting in the MOD forum are from down south so go figure. 

I Concur, I sometimes feel the same when it comes to WALES with all the talk about the North because on an UK level Wales is obviously central but our topiography means we on the whole are much colder and snowier than you would expect this is often overlooked especially durin NWstly spells of weather tbh I Would like to look at this further as I’m sure snowfall totals often can be far greater here than many parts further north! 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Will see how it’s modelled on the pub run, can’t see it going further North though. 

I wouldn’t bet against it missing the uk altogether! 

[john mac]

Eyes down for the pub run. Hoping for a firming up on the possible NE ly. 

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I wouldn’t bet against it missing the uk altogether! 

Slider..is a slider..and your bang on it could be a uk non-event...

[Daniel*]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Slider..is a slider..and your bang on it could be a uk non-event...

I doubt that. Parts of the Midlands tends to always see something. 

[tight isobar]

Just now, Daniel* said:

I doubt that. Parts of the Midlands tends to always see something. 

Perhaps.

Although given the vigor of the mass of flow...

Its like throwing darts in the dark.

Good to watch the evolvement on this nonetheless..

 

[snowice]

Uppers at - 8 now on pub run

[andymusic]

very snowy Tuesday and Monday night to start things off on the 18z

[Snowman.]

18z has some -8 uppers appearing now.

[SMU]

GFS 102 

A site to behold - deep unstable cold flow -8c just reaching NI

Total wipeout in the flow-

 

PS the slider is going to be further south this run

[snowray]

23 minutes ago, tinybill said:

bbc news 24 weather 9 55 should  be good !!

Quite funny really, he goes on about turning a lot colder but showing temps of 7/8c Midlands and south for the middle of next week!

 

Looking colder on the 18z, still lots of snow showers moving in.

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by snowray

[Pembroke Dangler]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Perhaps.

Although given the vigor of the mass of flow...

Its like throwing darts in the dark.

Good to watch the evolvement on this nonetheless..

 

Looking at the beeb graphics it’s further sounth than the gfs and I’m talking m4 south entering Newquay and exiting Dover it looked like I suspect snow to the north of it. Looked a pretty weak feature so uppers north of it should not modify to much.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Pembroke Dangler

[MattStoke]

18z looks pretty much the same as the 12z so far. Although a few pockets of -8 uppers showing.

'Runner' low coming up shortly. Looks to be on a similar track to the 12z as far as I can tell.

Edit - Actually its a little further south but also deeper.

Edited January 12, 2018 by MattStoke