Model output discussion - mid-winter

[tight isobar]

Casting aside..

Slider-runner lps into the mix that need further in depth modeling...

Trough expansion is allowing rolling heights into greenland that are easy on the eye....

And finishing frames should also elaborate this scenario....

[Wardlegacy]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

well for those looking at the gfs and ecm snow accumulations charts then looking at this I would say there are very much overplaying the depths. 

That’s for Monday, are any models showing any different for that early in the week!

[lorenzo]

Again - you would be accused of dabbling in narcotics if you presented these two charts as a likely route forward at any given point in time..

[snowice]

192 northerly coming very cold uppers looks great 

[Thunderywintrysnow]

4 minutes ago, terrier said:

well for those looking at the gfs and ecm snow accumulations charts then looking at this I would say there are very much overplaying the depths. 

Monday cold air not embedded it Tuesday morning onwards the fun begins.

[Ice Day]

192 looks great to me.  Possible link up of the Greenland, Arctic and Russian highs?  Then it really would be 'game on'

[tight isobar]

Just now, Ice Day said:

192 looks great to me.  Possible link up of the Greenland, Arctic and Russian highs?  Then it really would be 'game on'

A link would allow for rotate of trough..

And start the cycle for continental/perhaps siberian feed...

[andymusic]

7 minutes ago, terrier said:

well for those looking at the gfs and ecm snow accumulations charts then looking at this I would say there are very much overplaying the depths. 

this is for Monday - snow doesn't really start uk wide till Tuesday and then rest of the week

[Ice Day]

Just now, tight isobar said:

A link would allow for rotate of trough..

And start the cycle for continental/perhaps siberian feed...

That is very much the plan!!!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z, Monday is the least wintry day next week, indeed it slightly delays the cold air but from mon night onwards winter returns, with a vengeance for some as squally showers turn more and more to snow. I hear on the grapevine that the south could see some snow, especially later next week..I'm looking forward to next week's return to wintry weather!

[ukpaul]

6 minutes ago, terrier said:

well for those looking at the gfs and ecm snow accumulations charts then looking at this I would say there are very much overplaying the depths. 

This is for Monday, that means 'not Tuesday onwards' when the snow is on the other charts.......

GFS shows merely traces (which is accurate), its 1cm equals 'a little bit, maybe'.

[nick sussex]

Nice little Iceland cut off high at T216 hrs on the ECM.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nice little Iceland cut off high at T216 hrs on the ECM.

Cut off high was on the 00z run aswell nick!!good consistency from ecm!!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Nice little Iceland cut off high at T216 hrs on the ECM.

That trough on the Southern Greenland tip not looking too good for my liking, looks like its going to throw out a shortwave and buggr everything.

[nick sussex]

Just now, shaky said:

Cut off high was on the 00z run aswell nick!!good consistency from ecm!!

Let’s hope it’s not consistently wrong!

 

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That trough on the Southern Greenland tip not looking too good for my liking, looks like its going to throw out a shortwave and buggr everything.

Yep, stupid shortwave!!!  Good job it's likely to be gone in the morning though!

 

Another cracking run in the reliable/semi reliable though.  Lots of room for upgrades (downgrades can 'do one' as my kids would say).

[nick sussex]

Overall I’m happy with the ECM run which has a cleaner evolution than the GFS.

However until the upstream pattern is agreed on we don’t know which evolution is more likely to verify.

 

[Dennis]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Yep, stupid shortwave!!!  Good job it's likely to be gone in the morning though!

 

Another cracking run in the reliable/semi reliable though.  Lots of room for upgrades (downgrades can 'do one' as my kids would say).

if you like MORE snow its a good sign for west Europe again

[A.J]

always worth dusting off that well known NetWeather Classic regarding winter model watching...."Get the cold in first, and the snow will follow...the finer detail will be sorted in the days to come".......................unless of course if you live south of the M4 when the quote is "Get whatever the hell you want in first, it makes no difference, and the rain will follow"  

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Overall I’m happy with the ECM run which has a cleaner evolution than the GFS.

However until the upstream pattern is agreed on we don’t know which evolution is more likely to verify.

 

Worrying now though Nick that the ECM is some watered down version at the end with no sign of the -8c isotherm from the North, the GFS getting more complicated (although rewarding snow totals) with each run, GEM - no and now JMA - no also - downgrade from its stellar run yesterday.

[Methuselah]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That trough on the Southern Greenland tip not looking too good for my liking, looks like its going to throw out a shortwave and buggr everything.

Not (cue the Omen theme) The Return of The Shortwave Spoiler, I hope!

Edited January 12, 2018 by Ed Stone

[snowblizzard]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Overall I’m happy with the ECM run which has a cleaner evolution than the GFS.

However until the upstream pattern is agreed on we don’t know which evolution is more likely to verify.

 

Yet another deep trough & bitterly cold Arctic blast expected to push down into NE USA Nick?

[MR EXTREMES]

Had a flick through ECM didn't look at the 850temps but I'd assume gradually getting colder with final ECM chart showing milder air trying to get in.

But from what I can see cold from Monday onwards.

And not a cold snap nice to see things progressing nicely.

[nick sussex]

I know how you all love my crayon jobs so heres one to show a key difference between the ECM and GFS!

The GFS can't build any ridging because as you'll see that shortwave over Canada doesn't phase with shortwave energy along the east coast of the USA.

It remains separated runs east towards sw Greenland. You'll see in the ECM it phases those energies and there you have one system across the ne USA with the ridge ahead.

Phasing is always complicated because the downstream impacts greatly on any ridging. The problem is we don't know which is the correct solution so I'd advise to only look as far ahead as the initial PM flow.

The UKMO is what I'd call a middle solution with a more halfhearted phase. You'll see its ridge isn't as good ahead but its still cleaner than the GFS.

So heres the ECM T120 and T144hrs:

 

UKMO T144hrs:

Now the GFS for T120 and T144hrs timeframes:

 

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by nick sussex

[Banbury]

44 minutes ago, terrier said:

well for those looking at the gfs and ecm snow accumulations charts then looking at this I would say there are very much overplaying the depths. 

As that is for Monday thats not a shock to anyone on here