Model output discussion - mid-winter

[karlos1983]

Just now, andymusic said:

again a complete guessing game for long period future forecasting when they change there 30 dayer every other day, let's get that right 1st eh

I don’t really go along with that, I think the more we learn about the drivers that ultimately decide what whether we may or may not have, the better. But i just don’t think a 3 month view on temps against average is particularly useful for deterring for example how cold February might be.

[karlos1983]

Regarding this “runner” we saw modelled this morning, my concern is it’s source!

Surely it’s going to have some pretty mild air associated with it?

[karyo]

The 12z ICON is worse that the previous output as it deepens that shortwave and takes its track much further north. It basically increases the uppers to above 0c all the way up to Scotland.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Regarding this “runner” we saw modelled this morning, my concern is it’s source!

Surely it’s going to have some pretty mild air associated with it?

but also barrelling into freezing cold air/the borders of that will get the snow

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Regarding this “runner” we saw modelled this morning, my concern is it’s source!

Surely it’s going to have some pretty mild air associated with it?

Hmmm gfs looks different with that shortwave and in a good way aswell on this run!!doesnt look as developed!!lets see how it goes!!

[comet]

Looks to me as if the strat/trop coupling is as always dictating the pattern ahead, with perhaps conflicting teleconnect signals always playing catch up. Way to early to know how big a player the strat warming is going to be but if things go our way it could lead to the holy grail of weather synoptics if my feelings are anywhere near correct. We may well see the cold pattern relax due to wave 2 forcing waning prior to hopefully very large AO response amplification and proper winter freeze as we go into February.

Very interesting times ahead and any strong MJO forcing is likely to inhance AO amplified pattern hopefully.

[andymusic]

getting closer and closer

Tuesday looking snowingly busy

Edited January 12, 2018 by andymusic

[Day 10]

That's a belting Northwesterly that!

Edited January 12, 2018 by Day 10

[Ali1977]

GFS always seems to model a band of snow in the central belt - right accross to the East from Manchester , through Sheffield area accross to Grimsby. I wonder why!!

Edited January 12, 2018 by Ali1977

[shaky]

Still has not developed that low as much!!brilliant stuff!!keeps us in a northwesterly flow for longer!!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS always seems you model a band of snow in the central belt - right accross to the East from Manchester , through Sheffield area accross to Grimsby. I wonder why!!

Looks like a streamer Ali

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS always seems you model a band of snow in the central belt - right accross to the East from Manchester , through Sheffield area accross to Grimsby. I wonder why!!

Because of the direction of the wind being more westerly, I imagine.

Also, a warning to anyone looking at the GFS 0.25, the snow is now within the three hour bands so it will look less organised in the charts under 90h, if you want to see the 6h total look at the Europe view on the main model.

[Ali1977]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looks like a streamer Ali

Yeah, you normally see them heading towards stoke but I guess they only normally happen in NNW rather the WNWs

[Bazray]

10 minutes ago, andymusic said:

getting closer and closer

Tuesday looking snowingly busy

Excuse my naivety here, but do the diagonal lines mean snow and the shaded non diagonal mean rain?

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Still has not developed that low as much!!brilliant stuff!!keeps us in a northwesterly flow for longer!!

Yes is better, good way to see the difference is using the 850’s

12z vs 06z

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Excuse my naivety here, but do the diagonal lines mean snow and the shaded non diagonal mean rain?

 

absoflippinlutely

[Methuselah]

Interesting...Tuesday's LP hardly more than a wee kink in the isobars...Any snow north of the M4 likely to be marginal...?

 

[Bazray]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

absoflippinlutely

Bloody typical

edit: tuesday looks ok though

Edited January 12, 2018 by Bazray
Edit

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Interesting...Tuesday's LP hardly more than a wee kink in the isobars...Any snow north of the M4 likely to be marginal...?

 

That’s because it’s Thursday low pressure lol not Tuesday 

a little more than just a kink in the isobars ?

Edited January 12, 2018 by karlos1983

[andymusic]

midlands snow again on barrelling low

leading to possibly this

coming in overnight might suppress encroached milder air too

Edited January 12, 2018 by andymusic

[Bazray]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

midlands snow again on barrelling low

The classic M4 chop 

[karlos1983]

Mild blip for Southern areas lasts a little more than 6 hours!

back into the colder uppers

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

midlands snow again on barrelling low

Again, 100 miles south and we could all do well on that, needs watching. Evaporative cooling COULD happen but precipitation would have to be intense...

UKMO shows no sign of said low...

[snowfish1]

Just now, Bazray said:

The classic M4 chop 

Hate that 

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

Again, 100 miles south and we could all do well on that, needs watching. Evaporative cooling COULD happen but precipitation would have to be intense...

UKMO shows no sign of said low...

coming in overnight should help too