Model output discussion - mid-winter

[northwestsnow]

EC 144- thats really cold air moving in!!

 

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As karl showed- EC now showing uppers of -7 in the keen NW winds- -6 pushing well south-

Its only my op but people talking about the north west, the way things are going in wont just be the north west in with a shout!!

Yes irishsnow southewestsnow Welshsnow Scottishsnow englishsnow

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Next week's looking good - for a northwesterly, that is: I think the last times I remember such a depth of cold, from that direction, were in December 1967 and February and November 1973?

And on all three of those occasions, snow fell to the south of the M4...

Its looking very very cold, and i think you are correct Ed- the upgrades keep coming which will hopefully be great news for as many peeps as possible!

[karlos1983]

If south of the M4 sees snow next week away from elevation, I’ll eat my hat, usual locations in the North West UK will do well especially with some modest elevation. 

At least it won’t be dull 

maybe I’ll go hunting for snow in the North West..... if I’m welcome that is 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

If south of the M4 sees snow next week away from elevation, I’ll eat my hat, usual locations in the North West UK will do well especially with some modest elevation. 

At least it won’t be dull 

maybe I’ll go hunting for snow in the North West..... if I’m welcome that is 

Of course you are Karlos- its only natural things can get a little heated at times its something we are passionate about.

Still thinking if the upgrades keep coming then there might be wintry suprises just about anywhere (apart from Cambourne of course)...:D

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Next week's looking good - for a northwesterly, that is: I think the last times I remember such a depth of cold, from that direction, were in December 1967 and February and November 1973?

And on all three of those occasions, snow fell to the south of the M4...

December just gone brought colder uppers. -8 to -10 widely.

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

Is that a ramp?

Yep..

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If south of the M4 sees snow next week away from elevation, I’ll eat my hat, usual locations in the North West UK will do well especially with some modest elevation. 

At least it won’t be dull 

maybe I’ll go hunting for snow in the North West..... if I’m welcome that is 

Certainly looks good where I’m off to next Friday according to those charts. I don’t think things will be marginal in Tallinn ??

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

December just gone brought colder uppers. -8 to -10 widely.

To balance that (although i dont personally recall -10 uppers), its a month on and the seas should be a couple of degrees colder, which will help.

Hopefully..

[Jason T]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If south of the M4 sees snow next week away from elevation, I’ll eat my hat, usual locations in the North West UK will do well especially with some modest elevation. 

At least it won’t be dull 

maybe I’ll go hunting for snow in the North West..... if I’m welcome that is 

You have no HATS left Karlos....                                   Apologies Mods..

[bluearmy]

That op ec looks of great interest to be Scots by day 8 with very low thickness at 500hpa and  not  insignificantly low at the surface - and more notably, a fairly slack flow under the trough ........ cold!! 

[northwestsnow]

Obviously the medium term holds some potential for people but the longer term signal is now getting very interesting- a slight relaxation of that low moving across the Atlantic at day 9 and we could see something very cold lock in- and at day 9 and 10 we have -7 uppers across much of SE England..

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That op ec looks of great interest to be Scots by day 8 with very low thickness at 500hpa and  not  insignificantly low at the surface - and more notably, a fairly slack flow under the trough ........ cold!! 

Hi blue , where can i access the 500s?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended keeps the northwesterly flow going

[doctor32]

Is this now the 850 uppers thread? 

Everytime i log on, the 1st post i see contains these. One trend i have seen in these comments is that the upper 850 temps are decreasing though.

So many things over the next week will dictate who gets what wintry wise and the uppers really dont need to be commented on every minute of the day. 

Sorry for the rant but there is much more detail in the upcoming spell of model watching than just the bleeding -4 to -7 uppers

[tight isobar]

Given the current modeled-raw data pm flow evolutions on offer, a good spec other coming days will be to view operational models via the vent- view.

Various outs, will have varied gradients on inflow...and euro window- will tell a different story vs-norther hem view!. 

And these partial flow charts can/will be of huge impact on whom gets what and indeed where.

As the pm-flow can have major implications, for the pre -24 hrs  ground accomplishments via raising/or collapsing of evlevation-dews/bulbs cooling evaporation.

It will be a usefultool should you want a sneaky peak at possibilities nearer exactions......

...

Todays 12z gfs/ecm for illustration.

@random snaps

Re-edit;

Im personaly holding back on my thoughts of outcomes after the pm incur.. as i will be asked to revert straight to the ramp thread...?

Edited January 11, 2018 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hi blue , where can i access the 500s?

500hpa Heights !

Maybe I should have said dam to make myself clear

The evolution out of the sinking trough stays unclear days 9/12 

[captaincroc]

Just been wondering why the uppers seem so low from a North Westerly?  My only assumptions are lower than average SST, extremely cold Greenland and gale force winds blowing straight from there with the shortest flow possible?

I am only looking at 850 temps, is there anything else I should be looking at?

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Is this now the 850 uppers thread? 

Everytime i log on, the 1st post i see contains these. One trend i have seen in these comments is that the upper 850 temps are decreasing though.

So many things over the next week will dictate who gets what wintry wise and the uppers really dont need to be commented on every minute of the day. 

Sorry for the rant but there is much more detail in the upcoming spell of model watching than just the bleeding -4 to -7 uppers

Yes mate but this had been so border line that -1 or -2 uppers make a massive difference at this crucial juncture, so a westerly with uppers of -4/-5 might produce only rain and sleet/snow on higher ground, but a WNWly and uppers of -6/-7 and its potentially all snow.

Edited January 11, 2018 by snowray

[January Snowstorm]

I remember an incredible snowy westerly in my youth  (sometime around 84 or 85) From memory it was this time of year and we got huge drifts that went on for a week or so. Anyway point being next week can deliver if everything falls right for us

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

Here we go, HP in the Atlantic, winds veering more NE, snow chances shifting to the east of the country as colder air digs in. Lovely chart!!!!! Very cold again.

Thank goodness for that, we need a break here in the north west ?

[A.J]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

168 

kinks over Scandi & lows sliding under the block-

deep snow the NW ( elevated )

-6 uppers ...

the true definition of a decent North westerly- rare as gold hens teeth

I wonder if seeing this kind of statement and charts is making Shaky think "You got me going now, you got me so I can;t sleep at night".......I'll fetch me coat 

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Just been wondering why the uppers seem so low from a North Westerly?  My only assumptions are lower than average SST, extremely cold Greenland and gale force winds blowing straight from there with the shortest flow possible?

I am only looking at 850 temps, is there anything else I should be looking at?

 

They can start off very cold but as the colder air travels closer to the UK it has passed over relatively warm waters which moderates it

[captaincroc]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

They can start off very cold but as the colder air travels closer to the UK it has passed over relatively warm waters which moderates it

Cheers mate but I was just wondering why this forecasted spell seems a lot more potent than normal?

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

They can start off very cold but as the colder air travels closer to the UK it has passed over relatively warm waters which moderates it

That's not what he asked though he kind of asked why the uppers are staying so cold as they get to us?