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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
50 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

When the GEFS ensemble graphs come out shortly, the 12z is going to prolong the mean at -5/-6 out to day 10 at least

gensnh-21-0-240.png

That’s impressive for a mean at T+240 strong cold signal. Not exactly tame too.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Those 500mb temperature projections look very cold over a sustained period.  I am not sure I have seen them so low so far South for such a long period of time in recent years.  Polar Low territory?  :cold:

Yes they have surprised me too, I had been quite sure that GFS had over-egged uppers, future runs may see downgrades but its looking like pretty solid agreement now.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exactly!! 516DAM( i think it is) is cold..no ifs or butts!

surface dam and 500 hpa dam diffs are less relevant under low 500 hpa thickness but this is moreso with a slack flow ( I think). anyway, all will become clearer next week but i'm still not convinced (unless we get a runner which could make things rather more interesting lower down along a narrowish band)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

How rare is this, Manchester ens looking almost exactly the same as the London ens, just less PNN as expected, weird stuff.:cc_confused:

graphe_ens3-1.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All

So broadly the same today - maintaining a pretty good attenuated flow allowing for that Polar air to dig SE - looking good for those favoured spots in the NW with the usual culprits doing well-

This isn’t modelled yet however in the timeline of 144-192 keep an eye on the main low to the NW - instead of it moving SE as 1 entity watch for it possibly break up with shortwave energy sliding SE into the Low Countries while the top end of the low backs away westwards towards Greenland- these usually occur when residual pressure to our east makes another bid west splitting the low pressure ... watch for the kink over Scandi...

S

love a bit of kinkiness over scandi lol - ecm coming out will it go with gfs aswell for next week - I think so - beeb before 6pm showed major cold flowing across whole of the uk for next week - job done!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, shaky said:

Ecm digs that low to the north further south at 96 hours compared to yesterdays 120 hours!!all systems go at the moment!!

But nowhere near as cold as GFS or UKMO.

ECM0-120.gif

gfs-1-120.png

UW120-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Quite a site...yep im being a poet again...

Large lobe vortex is in a stuper!!..

Want to say goodbye to canada..and book a 5☆ suite at hotel uk..???

Screenshot_2018-01-11-18-25-03.png

ECH1-120.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

I cant decipher whats more crazy??..

The absoulute text book wintryness from the 12z gfs( preety much from monday throughout)...

 

Or that people 'still' are posting-hyperthetical snow charts!!!

This pm incur- is by no way of the norm; and packs a huge punch with the fridgidity/and vent it comes with/from.

There could be mass impactual snowfall anyway from this baby!!...and will be ironed , out with time .

Not going to make comment/analysis on the absoulute massive possibiltes after the pm flow subsides until completion of all 12z today...

                 Gfs12z= corker....

Is that a ramp?

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Just now, tight isobar said:

Quite a site...yep im being a poet again...

Large lobe vortex is in a stuper!!..

Want to say goodbye to canada..and book a 5☆ suite at hotel uk..???

Screenshot_2018-01-11-18-25-03.png

ECH1-120.gif

Looking at Russia there...hmmm.....What will be next?!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Much better at T144, we get the NWly flow in, colder uppers arrive in earnest.

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

But nowhere near as cold as GFS or UKMO.

ECM0-120.gif

gfs-1-120.png

UW120-7.gif

ECM tends to underdo cold uppers. While the GFS tends to overdo them.

If memory serves me correctly, the ECM underdid the cold uppers back in December and the GFS was nearer the mark.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

T168. Very nice chart, look towards the NW for HP to build. Azores high being kept at bay, could there be a mid Atlantic HP link up with Greenland coming up?:)

ECM1-168-1.gif

ECM0-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

The uppers being quoted are four to five days away? I don’t see why people need to stop looking.

The cold spell for next week is nailed on - potent North Westerly is incoming and the majority of members currently posting charts live in the areas most likely to be seeing the heavy and frequent hail/sleet/snow/thunder showers.

What is there to be miserable about? I can’t wait for it arrive. :D

Living south of the M4 and seeing all this snow chat and knowing your going to miss out again :(

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Good to ECM slowly come on board with more favourable GFS output.

Extremely good agreement for 192hrs

ECH1-192.GIF?11-0gfsnh-0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

Will all be very moderated for us in the S.E Again !! Looking very good for all those west & North..

Not a great Winter for us Southerners again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepperton - TW17
  • Location: Shepperton - TW17
Just now, craigore said:

Will all be very moderated for us in the S.E Again !! Looking very good for all those west & North..

Not a great Winter for us Southerners again. 

Yet ;)

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