Model output discussion - mid-winter

[karyo]

9 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

A wet and windy week for majority of uk next week is my interpretation ......

At least the Welsh mountains should do a good job at sheltering you to an extend from the 'wet'.

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

A wet and windy week for majority of uk next week is my interpretation ......

Snow is wet as well of course, so you are entirely correct in your interpretation.

[Stormeh]

14 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

A wet and windy week for majority of uk next week is my interpretation ......

We must be looking at different charts because the ones I am looking at are showing the majority of the UK under cold and snowy conditions next week

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

We must be looking at different charts because the ones I am looking at are showing the majority of the UK under cold and snowy conditions next week

I bet beefy’s assessment ends up closer come verification .....

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I bet beefy’s assessment ends up closer come verification .....

Agreed.

Although places in the north with 200m altitude might be very happy bunnies..

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

Although places in the north with 200m altitude might be very happy bunnies..

If im to be honest i think that may be even pushing  it  i would say possibly 300m  however lets see   I think anyone thinking its going to be the same as a few weeks before christmas may be dissapointed

[mulzy]

42 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

A wet and windy week for majority of uk next week is my interpretation ......

Pretty much spot on.  The parameters are just on the wrong side of marginal for lying snow.  Upland Northern parts may do well snow-wise.

The real interest is what happens after the trough sinks into Europe - though I am not holding my breath.

We probably need to exhibit some patience - the Strat and MJO will come to our aid.  First 2 weeks of February folks - that’s when it’s going to happen.

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by mulzy

[mulzy]

42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

YES, but that's why I hate anomaly charts for specific dates on op runs, they just don't tell the story, give me generic charts any day, anoms ok(ish) for monthlies and weeklies and perhaps ensemble means.

Anomaly charts are fine - it’s just the interpretation that’s often in error.

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by mulzy

[Ali1977]

I’m going against the majority , Jan is by far the best month for snow if it’s a close call ref temps etc.. I’m saying keep an eye on forecasts as there may be surprises , for all UK.  

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

YES, but that's why I hate anomaly charts for specific dates on op runs, they just don't tell the story, give me generic charts any day, anoms ok(ish) for monthlies and weeklies and perhaps ensemble means.

It depends on what you want or expect from anomaly charts-what do you want and expect if I may ask?

[TEITS]

Scatter is clear to see on the ensembles from the 21st Jan. At the moment favouring turning less cold but could easily change to much colder from the NE/E!

[Ali1977]

In a NW wind London is generally one of the warmest locations in the UK, and the snow row next week is above 10 everyday - surely that tells a story of the possibilities for many. 

[captaincroc]

There is no doubt that the GFS charts overdo the signal for snow on their charts but I have to say that bullishness for snow is something I haven't seen before from this wind direction.

[MildCarlilse]

ThIs chart back in November brought with it temps. of -4c at 1000m in Scotland...   

This chart... is far more organised and energetic,faster wind flow over sea etc so I am confident that much more lower lying areas across the country will see snow as this pattern re-establishes.

[Weathizard]

34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

In a NW wind London is generally one of the warmest locations in the UK, and the snow row next week is above 10 everyday - surely that tells a story of the possibilities for many. 

Those snow rows can be misleading though, just because some snow may fall(even to low levels at times) it won't accumulate on the wet ground and would mostly be a freezing cold sleety mess. Unfortunately from a NW flow -5 is simply not enough for most southern areas. Altitude will be key here, as always in marginal situations.

Thats if we get to that point as realistically we've seen NW flows get modified as we get closer to the time before. You could be right of course but I'd not bet on it.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

It depends on what you want or expect from anomaly charts-what do you want and expect if I may ask?

If its a specific target date (yes I know if they are too far away then its pointless looking at specifics) then I want to know what weather is likely, surely better interpretation of the chart is if you can see where the ridges and troughs set up, for instance you can have a +ve anomaly over Greenland and it still be low heights - you might as well just see what the actual height / pressure / temps are, I see it a little different wrt ensembles because at longer ranges (which is what ensembles are essentially designed for) the mean of 50 members is unlikely to show a Greenland high, but if the anomaly is +ve, then that suggests a higher than normal probability - not necessarily odds on favourite just a slightly increased chance.

EDIT : For instance if you were from Qatar and were about to go on an expedition to the North pole, a +ve temp anom of 15c would show off the scale on those meteociel charts but that's useless, you want to know what the temperature would be and it would still be bloody freezing.

Edited January 11, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm baffled by the posts by some.

It's a cold north westerly flow cold enough for snow even in the south especially at night.

Then any snow further north likely to stick around with some hard frosts.

Very wintry with at least a week's worth of a wintry flavour.

Although it's not what us southerners want it's a building situation.

And it's most likely more interesting charts will show up with in the next few days.

Overall I'm impressed by this winter so far knocks the socks of the last four five years.

Ok no mega freeze yet but just look at the northern hemisphere and into Russia down into Italy Greece ect it's pretty impressive.

I'd expect to see the jet stream heading a little more south and with this a chance of northern blocking.

Nearly the whole northern hemisphere including northern England and Scotland look to be right in the cold air with of coarse temps moderated because of the Atlantic,

But over all interesting.

but the fun will start as we establish the nw flow.

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Never seen this but that sounds v promising 

new they'd turn a corner - models are screaming wintriness, yes I know it's an unusual set up - but we are in the middle of January folks - very cold time of the year, and we are gonna get the wintry weather we crave, just watch what happens

[Lampostwatcher]

anyone who' moaning about the current models and the wintry offerings showing in the latest charts either has an igloo in the north pole or possibly hasn' seen a snow flake so far this winter 

hoping the 12z upgrades 

[Roadrunner]

I do wonder how the models would have handled the great easterly of February 1991. I wonder what they would have shown with each run day to day leading up to it while getting a grip on things. Would have been fascinating to watch it unfold. I wonder what ups and downs there would have been on here as we got nearer to 0z and at what point people would have said "nailed easterly!". 

Will be interesting in the coming weeks to see if there is any chance such idyllic charts will appear as we head into February. That indeed would be nirvana. 

[Frostbite1980]

13 minutes ago, andymusic said:

new they'd turn a corner - models are screaming wintriness, yes I know it's an unusual set up - but we are in the middle of January folks - very cold time of the year, and we are gonna get the wintry weather we crave, just watch what happens

Yes statistacly the coldest month of winter however we have easterly winds with 850 temps above 0 so statistics and the time of year does not guarantee conditions. Warranted the NWwesterly will provide some interest to favoured spots that do well in this PM situation however although a biting wind for others I feel it’s mainly dry and those sheltered from the wind could feel quite pleasant.

i do believe this could be a starter before the main course though and if we can get a SSW all could join in the fun and games ?

[Snowmadsam]

12 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

anyone who' moaning about the current models and the wintry offerings showing in the latest charts either has an igloo in the north pole or possibly hasn' seen a snow flake so far this winter 

hoping the 12z upgrades 

Cursed it now, never ever say that ??!

Models will all have variability, before the 12z’s roll out a reminder to try and keep cool. We are all excited but let’s not get carried away

Edited January 11, 2018 by Snowmadsam

[andymusic]

13 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Cursed it now, never ever say that ??!

Models will all have variability, before the 12z’s roll out a reminder to try and keep cool. We are all excited but let’s not get carried away

carried away - who's getting carried away - we're all coming round your house when the snow hits lol - and with that eyes down as the 12zs roll out - gfs steady as she goes as has been over the past few days - very much doubt there'll be a lot of difference for next week, looking pretty nailed on now with the odd detail shifted here and there 

[snowice]

1 hour ago, MildCarlilse said:

ThIs chart back in November brought with it temps. of -4c at 1000m in Scotland...   

This chart... is far more organised and energetic,faster wind flow over sea etc so I am confident that much more lower lying areas across the country will see snow as this pattern re-establishes.

You can't please someThe models are showing what your saying is more than a possibility! If it's not in certain areas or  not coming from the east they just rubbish the output!it could rain?Then it could snow as you have shown a fine example above.

[joggs]

23 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

I do wonder how the models would have handled the great easterly of February 1991. I wonder what they would have shown with each run day to day leading up to it while getting a grip on things. Would have been fascinating to watch it unfold. I wonder what ups and downs there would have been on here as we got nearer to 0z and at what point people would have said "nailed easterly!". 

Will be interesting in the coming weeks to see if there is any chance such idyllic charts will appear as we head into February. That indeed would be nirvana. 

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