Model output discussion - mid-winter

[stewfox]

Another morning of runs and another run of comments. The ECM is good oh no its not  its crap, its cold oh no its not its mild. It will bring rain no it will bring snow. The GFS is good no its poor and PM wont lead to blocking oh yes it will oh no it wont. Glad thats all clear

Who misses the 80s when you use to look out of the window for the weather and actually travel to the Pantomime.

GFS 00z 19 Jan 

 

 

Poole 19 Jan Rain

e

15 mile north of Poole

[Chesil View]

Just now, stewfox said:

Another morning of runs and another run of comments. The ECM is good oh no its not  its crap, its cold oh no its not its mild. It will bring rain no it will bring snow. The GFS is good no its poor and PM wont lead to blocking oh yes it will oh no it wont. Glad thats all clear

Who misses the 80s when you use to look out of the window for the weather and actually travel to the Pantomime.

GFS 00z 19 Jan 

 

 

Poole 19 Jan Rain

e

15 mile north of Poole

So true to life StewfoxI I've lived close to the Dorset coast all my life( 57 years) and this has happened countless times.. We used to take trips up to Shaftesbury to see the snow. lol

[Skyraker]

Something is most definitely afoot.

i really think we are about to see something very special over the next two three weeks.

 

The models just don't know what it is yet.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended maintains the flow from the west

[tight isobar]

Ooz p-stamps 500 geo-pot snaps!..

Some stark, notable's...

All with waa/atlantic-and scandi' developing heights...illustration of a very potent pm incursion and a south diving jet!..

Later on we can see 'again' the want of heights transfer via greenland and scandinavian want-of link.

Looks very likely we are walking into a real slot of some worthy winter weather as of monday next week, with things setting up for greater possibilities thereafter!!!

 

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by tight isobar

[tesaro]

14 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Something is most definitely afoot.

i really think we are about to see something very special over the next two three weeks.

 

The models just don't know what it is yet.

I’m in the same Camp as you. Have seen this sort of setup before. Watch the Highs puff up to the North in the coming runs. The Azores High could soon be a very good friend of ours.

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, Fozfoster said:

 

Out to the 20/01/18

Interesting although with snow depth charts the proverbial pinch and salt are always at the forefront of my mind. Obvious NW'ly influence there with the snow depths in Wales, NI, NW England etc, but also notable is the swathe of accumulation to the SE. Caused by the low pressure and troughing as it moves into Europe I'm guessing. Even a snowflake can cause panic on the streets of London these days so I dread to think what the consequences would be 

[Snowmadsam]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ooz p-stamps 500 geo-pot snaps!..

Some stark, notable's...

All with waa/atlantic-and scandi' developing heights...illustration of a very potent pm incursion and a south diving jet!..

Later on we can see 'again' the want of heights transfer via greenland and scandinavian want-of link.

Looks very likely we are walking into a real slot of some worthy winter weather as of monday next week, with things setting up for greater possibilities thereafter!!!

 

 

Fascinating to see that ALL ensemble members keep us on the cold side of the jet. One to bank for sure!

[nick sussex]

Looks like quite a cold looking few days coming up once the trough heads se.

After that there’s a lot more uncertainty because the trough over the UK is only slowly  sinking se.

The GEFS do have some very good solutions which clear this se with better heights to the north. However we saw this with the recent divergence re the initial trough position and how that disrupted se and these failed to materialize.

The ECM op develops decent heights over Russia , the GFS has better heights to the north which helps to get the trough further south.

What we’re lacking is more amplitude upstream which would help to build better heights to the nw and help clear the trough se without any residual attachment in energy between trough and low heights to the west.

The ECM does deliver what looks like some snow to the south as a shortwave runs east along the Channel but at this range I’d not bet my house on it.

Its likely we will see something develop at the base of trough and run east but track and whether it produces snow is still up in the air.

We are once again talking about marginal set ups away from higher ground in the north which could do okay.

Overall not bad outputs which at least show some wintry potential however we’re still lacking the depth of cold which could produce more widely.

The best outlook is a trough clearance se with ridge to the north disrupting further Atlantic energy . Whether that appears time will tell.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by nick sussex

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Fascinating to see that ALL ensemble members keep us on the cold side of the jet. One to bank for sure!

Yes 'certainly'...

And the recurring theme now is for a well favoured jet alignment.

And a very favourable n-hemispheric situ-..that doubled with heights being modeled to form in just about perfect situ also...

You have to feel the ground for us is finaly leveling off.

Some great stuff emerging.

[carinthian]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended maintains the flow from the west

Looks very zonal at 168t. Similar to what ECM is showing at that time with potential wave development to move speedily through England and Wales . Certainly some  snowfall in places but far to early to predict location as no doubt any wave development has an element of warmer air in the mix so will be very difficult to forecast , however as it quickly passes through some very cold air in the flow to follow.

C

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like quite a cold looking few days coming up once the trough heads se.

After that there’s a lot more uncertainty because the trough over the UK is only slowly  sinking se.

The GEFS do have some very good solutions which clear this se with better heights to the north. However we saw this with the recent divergence re the initial trough position and how that disrupted se and these failed to materialize.

The ECM op develops decent heights over Russia , the GFS has better heights to the north which helps to get the trough further south.

What we’re lacking is more amplitude upstream which would help to build better heights to the nw and help clear the trough se without any residual attachment in energy between trough and low heights to the west.

The ECM does deliver what looks like some snow to the south as a shortwave runs east along the Channel but at this range I’d not bet my house on it.

Its likely we will see something develop at the base of trough and run east but track and whether it produces snow is still up in the air.

We are once again talking about marginal set ups away from higher ground in the north which could do okay.

Overall not bad outputs which at least show some wintry potential however we’re still lacking the depth of cold which could produce more widely.

The best outlook is a trough clearance se with ridge to the north disrupting further Atlantic energy . Whether that appears time will tell.

 

 

You have to feel the trough/and jet align-is seriously playing ball for once nick.

And energy sources are running preety clear also..as the trough placement looks ripe for waa to develop and get forced greenland bound thereafter!

And the theme/question then remains on heights east/north east; as to how we may /may not get a morph/link, and then watch cold trnsfer via that region..east/north east.

Anyways-its far from boring mobility ...as we know it!!!.

Edited January 11, 2018 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Think theres an IMBY element to this post..it looks snowy for much of NW Britain..

I can’t be the only person that laughed out loud when reading this post!!! ???

the irony! Almost all of your posts are North West this, north west that, north west the other! 

You shouldn’t throw stones in glass houses mate!

Mean still not to bad at 240 on ecm.

[nick sussex]

Just now, tight isobar said:

You have tofeel the trough/and jet align-is seriously playing ball for once nick.

And energy sources are running preety clear also..as the trough placement looks ripe for waa to develoo and get forced greenland bound thereafter!

And the theme/question then remains on heights east/north east; as to how we may /may not jet a morph/link, and then watch cold trnsfer via that region..east/north east.

Anyways-its far from boring mobility ...as we know it!!!.

True the outputs aren’t bog standard zonal and with the jet tracking to the south of the UK that does open up other possibilities.

 

[Snowmadsam]

The question of what happens past day 10 really interests me. Especially on the ECM output. I’ve no idea why, but it just does. 

I’m getting to that stage where I am getting ready for every run! This is not good ??

[Sky Full]

Absolutely intriguing prospects being modelled today.  At +192h the models all seem to want a slice of the PV to make its way over the UK, and there is no real organisation to the remaining vortex which appears to be in general disarray:

ECM        

GFS         

GEM.    .  

Even the UKMO at +144h is taking us in the same direction:

 . 

I can't remember seeing anything like this in the last couple of years at least (but appreciate someone out there might be able to prove me wrong?).  I reckon we could see something much colder out of this before winter is over.  Most of January and all of February to go yet - plenty of time for another arctic incursion to keep us all interested!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

The question of what happens past day 10 really interests me. Especially on the ECM output. I’ve no idea why, but it just does. 

I’m getting to that stage where I am getting ready for every run! This is not good ??

I don’t think the nwp really knows what’s even nearly happening post day 10. Have felt this way for a few runs now.

[Snowmadsam]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I don’t think the nwp really knows what’s even nearly happening post day 10. Have felt this way for a few runs now.

I agree, I can imagine these NWP’s as people and thinking past day ten saying “oh I can’t do it”.

lets see what the rest of the day brings

[frosty ground]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can’t be the only person that laughed out loud when reading this post!!! ???

the irony! Almost all of your posts are North West this, north west that, north west the other! 

You shouldn’t throw stones in glass houses mate!

Mean still not to bad at 240 on ecm.

There is a reason NWS is stating NW Britain, and this may shock you...... He basically stating what the models show, its almost as if hes actually using this thread for its intended purpose. 

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can’t be the only person that laughed out loud when reading this post!!! ???

the irony! Almost all of your posts are North West this, north west that, north west the other! 

You shouldn’t throw stones in glass houses mate!

Mean still not to bad at 240 on ecm.

You only have to view the ozz london ens to note, thats quickly having the south in the cold -snowy prospects.

And one to note is how this plays out over coming2-3 days as jet profile and trough placement (alike) could have a major switch to favoured/non favoured geographical points...where any possible snowfall is concerned...be careful whay you wish for!!!-or indeed otherwise!

Edited January 11, 2018 by tight isobar

[Day 10]

Plenty going on now in the medium term, but also as others have alluded to very interesting from a longer viewpoint. Look at some of these ensembles from a NH point of view, a whole raft of Wintry options could be on the table.

[Snowmadsam]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

There is a reason NWS is stating NW Britain, and this may shock you...... He basically stating what the models show, its almost as if hes actually using this thread for its intended purpose. 

I agree, but next week is still ages away, no point in making snow predictions yet. Remember this is a COLD ZONAL flow. Surprises could be ANYWHERE. The weather will do what the weather will do  

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can’t be the only person that laughed out loud when reading this post!!! ???

the irony! Almost all of your posts are North West this, north west that, north west the other! 

You shouldn’t throw stones in glass houses mate!

Mean still not to bad at 240 on ecm.

Think you will find most of my posts over the recent past refer to NW Britain...never mind..carry on.

ps if NW Britain is IMBY i have a really large garden..

Edited January 11, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Chevron12345]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Think you will find most of my posts over the recent past refer to NW Britain...never mind..carry on.

NW Britain - Northern Ireland and NW Scotland then. Or are you confusing yourself with NW England..

Anyway the models are showing an impressive incursion of PM from the Atlantic. Looks like normal winter weather where Scotland and High Ground in the north might see some good snowfall.

Apart from the pretty wet and miserable. What comes after this spell of rain/sleet/snow for the UK is what is interesting, but again that's ten days away.

 

[Weegaz]

I think mod's might need to implement an age restriction on this thread, some of the childish comments are making heavy reading of this usually informative thread.

Anyhow, with the 6z rolling out excitement is +7 out of 10 for next week.