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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

ECM rescue mission 144looks great cold uppers flooding south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

???

 Really? The 850s are an upgrade at 144!!

ECM0-144.GIF?11-12

120 - mild sector.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The ECM overall though an upgrade for PM but unsure its that great long term for blocking potential - and that's more important IMO

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

So a cold pm flow heading into the weekend showing up now on gfs ukmo and ecm. But I would think it will be very marginal for any snow away from the highest hills. And also the mo don’t seem interested in much of the white stuff. So I would keep expectations low if anyone is expecting snow. Think with the upper temps we are looking at for most it will be cold sleety rain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ECM overall though an upgrade for PM but unsure its that great long term for blocking potential - and that's more important IMO

ECM imo is far better for a long term block due to Atlantic ridging....not all blocks have to be from the east.

ECMOPEU00_192_1-4.png

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

ECM imo is far better for a long term block due to Atlantic ridging....not all blocks have to be from the east.

Its no way better than GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ecm, ukmo or gfs is cold wet and windy for most over the coming days. Some favoured areas will see snow but not for many. Gfs shows potential as it moves into fi.

Potential and fi:D if I had a £.......

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its no way better than GFS.

Its a cold run...go on wz and check the deviation plots..

I actually cant believe you are moaning this morning..esp as your location will likely see snow..talk about glass empty..:nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Ecm, ukmo or gfs is cold wet and windy for most over the coming days. Some favoured areas will see snow but not for many. Gfs shows potential as it moves into fi.

Potential and fi:D if I had a £.......

Think theres an IMBY element to this post..it looks snowy for much of NW Britain..

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a cold run...go on wz and check the deviation plots..

I actually cant believe you are moaning this morning..esp as your location will likely see snow..talk about glass empty..:nonono:

What are the deviation plots for again? 

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

Finishing on a very interesting note in day 10, oh ECMenders is well and truely on this morning! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Think theres an IMBY element to this post..it looks snowy for much of NW Britain..

IMBY? I said many you said NW :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a cold run...go on wz and check the deviation plots..

I actually cant believe you are moaning this morning..esp as your location will likely see snow..talk about glass empty..:nonono:

How is it moaning - just stating the GFS is great, ECM less so for cold UK weather over next 2 weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

How is it moaning - just stating the GFS is great, ECM less so for cold UK weather over next 2 weeks.

Its cold feb ...and you say less cold than gfs but ec has uppers of -5/-6..gfs very similar...

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Upgrade the theme

 

Screenshot_20180111-070544.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I cant access the Ec snow depth charts as im in work..can anyone give an update please :)

 

0B126C3E-6EE2-43CC-A1D0-658BB68F3FF2.pngOut to the 20/01/18

Edited by Fozfoster
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I cant access the Ec snow depth charts as im in work..can anyone give an update please :)

NW - a right belting, parts of wales - a right belting, Parts of SE including London - some snow

Ive now developed a very reliable formula for interpreting these snow depth charts.

actualsnowdepth = us.weathersnowdepthchart - us.weathersnowdepthchart     !!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Well well well. The GFS is producing some pretty wintry scenarios next week for some parts. Good agreement on the ensembles until the 21st. 

t850Western~Isles.png

Looks like that powerful jet will dive southwards past the Uk (thankfully).. and in doing so displaces the High pressure over East Europe Northwards. Creating blocking to pur North and an invitation for some very cold weather.  I totally agree with some comments about longer range developments... feb could be very wintry. 

 

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