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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS suddenly looks really cold - and its defo sniffing around this evolution..

it's been constant and steady with this for days

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Quite an exciting run this. Synoptically very easy to watch, with virtually all of the UK between -4 and -6C Uppers from T+126 until T+216, by which point the Nwlies have veered Nly and NNEly. Can’t sniff from a coldie perspective (forgive the half pun). Very interesting to watch how these Synoptics correlate if at all with possible strat developments being alluded to, the 18Z continues the theme towards a late jan warming which appears to have been picked up to a weak extent anyway by GloSea. Eyes down and toys in the cupboard please...

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Perhaps a saucy GFS FI?

gfs-0-234.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

-8c about to engulf Eastern Britain along with snow showers.

No sign of the easterly fan club lol. 

Such a strange winter anything could happen. Gfs sticking to the 12z roll on the ooz.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Eps clusters show this gfs evolution is more likely than the op by day 10

are we looking at a slider to follow the ridge ?

(and I don't mean on gfs low res)

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

And right on cue, it goes into low res and its immediately game over. Ignore post 240.

Good to see it moving through the timescales. No guarantees that it will amount to anything special but we are at least in the game for once.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, snowice said:

No sign of the easterly fan club lol. 

Such a strange winter anything could happen. Gfs sticking to the 12z roll on the ooz.

Oi - I am in the Easterly fan club, its a misconception that everyone from NW just loves PM, I hate them - 2 inches of slush doesn't cut it for me, I certainly am more biased in terms of what I want towards Easterlies, but there was no way I was going to carry on ramping the last one once it was obvious it wasn't going to deliver.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

18z a decent run in the medium range.  It gets interesting at day 10 but then the winter killer puts a stop to any further fun.  Still lots to be resolved...

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

gfsnh-10-336.png?18

Omnipresent warming counting down the days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Nice that run was but unfortunately it will all get watered down as it gets closer to the reliable. But we all no that of course anyway, although I would very much like to be wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

It’s not the bbc thread. Broadcast forecasts have their own thread.

FWIW - the bbc don’t ‘sign off’ the weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Just now, markw2680 said:

Nice that run was but unfortunately it will all get watered down as it gets closer to the reliable. But we all no that of course anyway, although I would very much like to be wrong

Maybe, maybe not. This pattern is different in that we are not seeing warm air being pumped up into Europe ahead of any easterly. IF (and it is an if) we do get lucky with the pattern there should be some cold uppers to tap into. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Some great ?charts on the 18z tonight..grounds for optimism that some of us will see snow next week ❄❄❄❄:cold:

Quote

:cold-emoji:

 

18_234_mslp850.png

18_234_uk2mtmp.png

18_252_preciptype.png

18_252_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_252_mslp850.png

18_252_ukthickness850.png

18_228_ukwbt.png

18_264_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Worried about the ECM op? Fear not snow seekers. The largest ECM cluster at T240 has a much better ridge for bringing down a northerly:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011012_240.

That looks slidery (Is that even a term) anyway one could assume if the heights were strong enough it could force the low approaching to slider underneath engaging the cold air over Europe? All for fun at that range but may as well discuss or possibilities. 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Some great ?charts on the 18z tonight..grounds for optimism that some of us will see snow next week ❄❄❄❄:cold:

 

18_234_mslp850.png

18_234_uk2mtmp.png

18_252_preciptype.png

18_252_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_252_mslp850.png

18_252_ukthickness850.png

18_228_ukwbt.png

18_264_uk2mtmp.png

Whilst I admire your post  Frosty I could jaffa cakes in to the wind and be more accurate than charts 10 and 11 days away.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Whilst I admire your post  Frosty I could jaffa cakes in to the wind and be more accurate than charts 10 and 11 days away.

Cheers, just happy there is cold zonality on the way next week which might lead to something even better down the line.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Cheers, just happy there is cold zonalityon the way next week which might lead to something even better down the line.:)

ive done very very well out of the cold zonality so far this winter to the point that ive had more ice days than not since the first week of winter started so if its cold zonality then I say bring it on.

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