Model output discussion - mid-winter

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Compare 12z and 18z at 132, -6c and -4c isotherms clearly 50-100 miles further North.

The general picture from the pub runs is snow to certain areas inland England Wales to, not that big of a change to effect the overall pattern need to be 96 before I believe it.! 

Edited January 10, 2018 by snowice

[andymusic]

here it comes

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

The general picture from the pub runs is snow to certain areas inland England Wales to, so not the big of a change to effect the overall pattern need to be 96 before I believe it.! 

No - ive already edited my last post to say that the overall pattern and where we go wont be affected by the uppers but it will be if the trough doesn't elongate as much and allow better ridging behind it to link to the heights to the NE of it, also the GFS as a snow bias on PPN type charts so any higher uppers could be fatal.

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

here it comes

I wouldn’t read too much into those , the Beeb hardly mentioned snow . I think GFS is overplaying the wintry ppn 

[feb1991blizzard]

We are about to get some much better uppers around 192+ though.

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

here it comes

Have a look at the uppers over iceland at 168  - 12 getting ❄ colder. 

[Northern Sky]

To be fair this cold zonality has pretty much been counted down fairly intact from 240hrs+. It's now down to 120hrs, whether it will make it to 0hrs is another story.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I wouldn’t read too much into those , the Beeb hardly mentioned snow . I think GFS is overplaying the wintry ppn 

I wouldnt be suprised.

Was the the week ahead Marcus?

[Ali1977]

Middle to the end of next week, if the GFS is correct I reckon anyone north of the M4 is in with a shout, ignore precip charts as it only shows the West getting snow. In those winds from the west,  showers would be all over the UK - think of a typical rainy day, rain doesn’t stop at the M6 then does it. 

[snowice]

Cornwall has snow showers i know gfs over does the charts but I think the flow is getting colder. 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I wouldn’t read too much into those , the Beeb hardly mentioned snow . I think GFS is overplaying the wintry ppn 

Snow in the form of showers 5 days plus away and the BBC don't mention snow.... well thats shocking

Edited January 10, 2018 by frosty ground

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Cornwall has snow showers i know gfs over does the charts but I think the flow is getting colder. 

But Banbury has just mentioned the Beeb are hardlyeven mentioning snow, so GFS could be talkin out of its aris again..

[northwestsnow]

Synpotically it looks lovely at 201 hrs

But we know that low is going to literally destroy the NH profile thereafer- hopefully the models slow this system down and things could look very different..

[SLEETY]

Well the bbc forecast for the week ahead on country file was wrong for this week,so probably wrong again ,they don’t like mentioning snow even if it’s showing a couple of days ahead in all the models,do they  have an anti cold agenda or mild bias these bbc forecasters

[frosty ground]

A north easterly would be nice 

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But Banbury has just mentioned the Beeb are hardlyeven mentioning snow, so GFS could be talkin out of its aris again..

Keeps interest alive note 1050 Hp out of Greenland at the end of the run. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by snowice

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But Banbury has just mentioned the Beeb are hardlyeven mentioning snow, so GFS could be talkin out of its aris again..

d'you believe everything the beeb says - they said it was gonna get milder towards the end of this week it's flippin freezing here at around 1 - 2c so not likely - so they got that wrong - the depth of cold being shown is vast - the models have it - the beeb are in the dark

[Ali1977]

GFS at 200 is a great chart if you ask me, big Arctic high and UK about to get a Northerly then maybe Easterly shot!! 

[Sweatyman]

11 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I wouldn’t read too much into those , the Beeb hardly mentioned snow . I think GFS is overplaying the wintry ppn 

Yeah like the BBC are on the ball.... 

[tight isobar]

With synoptics becoming increasingly on offer along these lines im stunned by the continuious mention of polar maritime incursion!!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

GFS at 200 is a great chart if you ask me, big Arctic high and UK about to get a Northerly then maybe Easterly shot!! 

Yes, best chart for that target date yet - could be an absolute ripper.

[Snowy L]

Greenland at 1060 compared to 1050 on the 12z.

[northwestsnow]

GFS suddenly looks really cold - and its defo sniffing around this evolution..

[Had Worse]

The 9.55pm Beeb N24 forecast was skipped through by Mr Avery. 

I think the detail and timing needs to be nailed firstby the models before they cause mad panic and joyous celebrations for the folk in the line of fire from said wintry showers.

 

 

[SLEETY]

Same trend in gfs again after 200 hrs,which is good to see,maybe we can hit the jackpot this time.