Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Stozzy]

If the ecm verified my house would be blown away on the North Yorkshire coast 

[nick sussex]

The ECM continues to be more progressive than the GFS but overall the patterns aren’t much different .

The GFS sinks the trough slowly with a better build of pressure to the north, the ECM has the same key features but further north .

The ECM also develops a shortwave which deepens and runs east towards Scotland with some possible very high winds on the southern flank and blizzards for the Scottish highlands and perhaps some snow to lower levels depending on the track .

Overall it looks very unsettled in the outlook after the block edges further east , temperature wise generally below average , showers longer spells of rain and snow to higher ground to the north .

The envelope of solutions though could encompass something from the ne depending how far south the pattern is and throughout high pressure towards Russia blocks the Euro troughing in.

PS still trying to work out whether the ECM small low you can see over Germany at T168hrs hrs is a shortwave which runs east through the UK. Very hard to tell with these 24 hr intervals !

Edited January 10, 2018 by nick sussex

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, the Azores high rides into town to spoil the party.

Yep ?. That low of the east coast of the U.S pushed it back down . Just one decent cold spell thats all we're asking for , from the north or the east .?

[Frosty.]

Most of next week would be feeling wintry on the Ecm 12z, cold air arrives in the far NW on Monday and then sweeps southeast across all areas, cold, unsettled and windy at times with rain, sleet, snow, hail and thunder...some accumulations, especially on higher ground and frosty, icy nights..in other words, much more interesting than what we are having this week!

 

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[mulzy]

9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Think the Azores high will ruin the next frame,it’s always the spoiler in the winter these days 

Yep the 'winter killer' looking to spoil things after day 10.  Pretty good continuity from this morning's ECM.  Overall assessment is again rather underwhelming.

[Methuselah]

The question remains, regarding next week: will we need the snowboards or the water skis? Things are looking more than a tad marginal...?

[Snowmadsam]

Let’s get to Monday first, ECM looks stormy. 

More runs needed?!

[nick sussex]

Hopefully that blown up low on the ECM fails to verify . It’s a horrible looking feature which people could do without .

It’s always a problem with these slow moving troughs that you get these shortwaves developing close to the base and running east.

Of course a weaker feature which could bring some snow on the northern flank without the wind drama would be fine!

 

Edited January 10, 2018 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

 Overall assessment is again rather underwhelming.

It depends where you are, for much of the north it's not underwhelming at all, quite wintry in fact on the Ecm 12z for most of next week with 520-524 dam thicknesses generally further north and between 522-528 dam further south so some wintry weather would occur..I would call this week underwhelming!!

Edited January 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Hopefully that blown up low on the ECM fails to verify . It’s a horrible looking feature which people could do without .

Its always a problem with these slow moving troughs that you get these shortwaves developing close to the base and running east.

Of course a weaker feature which could bring some snow on the northern flank without the wind drama would be fine!

It always seems that way that these really deep lows get more mild air mixed in, probably because they get North side of the Jet quicker?, personally, I would like both, I would love a blizzard in the purest truest form - heavy horizontal snow and hurricane force winds.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It depends where you are, for much of the north it's not underwhelming at all, quite wintry in fact on the Ecm 12z with 520-522 dam generally further north and between 522-528 dam further south so some wintry weather would occur..I would call this week underwhelming!!

Why not just split the difference, Frosty...a 'whelming' week is afoot!

[nick sussex]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It always seems that way that these really deep lows get more mild air mixed in, probably because they get North side of the Jet quicker?, personally, I would like both, I would love a blizzard in the purest truest form - heavy horizontal snow and hurricane force winds.

You’re mad! 

I have a wind aversion , down here you can go weeks with nothing , that’s why we don’t have those hideous wind turbines here.

It’s only once you get further north that those monstrosities appear! Given the marginality Feb you might have to choose wind or snow! 

Edited January 10, 2018 by nick sussex

[Dancerwithwings]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The question remains, regarding next week: will we need the snowboards or the water skis? Things are looking more than a tad marginal...?

One on each foot will do and you'll be ready for both

Iso dam-line looks good to me for snow almost anywhere.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks to have a similar flow to ECM

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z next week it's all about cold zonality..(after monday), especially further north...going by this i would expect some snow in places next week and not just on hills in the north either!..an interesting mid winter period coming up.

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks to have a similar flow to ECM

Looks like that short wave will develope and follow the jet possible channel runner or northern France perhaps. And looks like the east coast of the states will get anothe noreaster 

[snowice]

Hopefully the ECM is wrong, like last week when against Gfs it over did the easterly.  What I am surprised at is at 96 it is so different to the others. I wonder is it to do with the reboot a couple of years ago,  it seems that  it does not agree with the others in the 96 range more than previous years. 

[claret047]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

Yes, the fact it spins up into a deeper (more powerful) low means it ends up to far north, and doesn't slide, a weaker low would slide south east and produce snow on its northern edge.

although snow showers would follow behind once the colder air gets pulled south.

Hello Chris and other posters.

What is the tidal situation like when the storm starts to move southeast? Would a storm surge be likely, especially if pressure rises rapidly in the Greenland area like it did in the disaster in the early 1950's (1952 or 1952 from memory.)

Kind regards

Dave

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks to have a similar flow to ECM

That wave could devlop into a real winter storm..... or if it stays shallow bring a lot of snow to the northern edge.

An interesting spell of weater is on offer.... even if the uppets arent snow makong there must be a possabillaty of some real heavy thundery showers.

[Spah1]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Hopefully the ECM is wrong, like last week when against Gfs it over did the easterly.  What I am surprised at is at 96 it is so different to the others. I wonder is it to do with the reboot a couple of years ago,  it seems that  it does not agree with the others in the 96 range more than previous years. 

 

[northwestsnow]

EC brings 850s around -5/-6 certainly hills in Northern Britain -moreso NW Britain exposed to the WNW winds-

For sticking accumulating snow i still think 300m is going to be required..

My old mate the EC snow depth charts show decent accumulations across the pennines

add to that Ulster, Scotland and Wales...!

Frosty ground going on for a foot of snow- then again he is 1000feet above sea level ..

Edited January 10, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Spah1]

I know it’s the wrong thread but if one of the more experienced members could elaborate ‘possible amplification’ for us less knowledgeable that would be great.  

I assume he’s referring to heights pushing up to Greenland. ?

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I know it’s the wrong thread but if one of the more experienced members could elaborate ‘possible amplification’ for us less knowledgeable that would be great.  

I assume he’s referring to heights pushing up to Greenland. ?

Yes amplification of the pattern essentially means the jet / associated 500 MB heights with more North south emphasis as opposed to west east >

A direct NW polar flow over the UK in early Jan Bringing -6c uppers is almost a dead cert for snow for areas over 150 M in the NW ( lower that sightly Further North ) however south of Birmingham you are looking at a mix of rain sleet & snow- any moderation from the west & it’s rain all the way down here - you need more Northerly component for that here - say north of 320 degrees & uppers around -8c ....

So for some - looking great especially scotland & the usual high areas like Buxton etc etc plus the Irish hills - 

Other than that- just cold rain....

The system shown on the 168 UKMO is more often than not going to moderate the flow with a more Westerly ( even SW ) flow unless it stays very shallow - so that’s not a great chart if it’s snow your after...

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

And then 192. Which would blow the cobwebs away 

At T186, we have a line of gusts blowing through the North Sea from the NW into Cumbria at 90-100mph - maxing at 104mph up on the Lakes. With snow showers up there, possible white-out conditions.

Most of the UK experiencing gusts of 70mph between T186 and T192, 80mph for coastal areas and most of Lancashire. The 70mph sector includes inland areas all the way from Manchester down to the SE corner.

In a word, nasty!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

At T186, we have a line of gusts blowing through the North Sea from the NW into Cumbria at 90-100mph - maxing at 104mph up on the Lakes. With snow showers up there, possible white-out conditions.

Most of the UK experiencing gusts of 70mph between T186 and T192, 80mph for coastal areas and most of Lancashire. The 70mph sector includes inland areas all the way from Manchester down to the SE corner.

In a word, nasty!

Presumably snow in the North West?