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Model output discussion - mid-winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted (edited)

If you think a post doesn’t below here or is off topic then simply report it.

posting about an off topic post is another off topic post..... you see where I’m going with this-  look, you guys are going to have me crawling towards the gin bottle by 6pm if this keeps up...

 

Edited by Team Jo
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

UKMO brings in a pretty impressive north west flow, with the elongated Atlantic trough digging south east coming up against the block to our east

Quite a short sea track and a very cold source could offer a few snowy surprises.

IMG_3231.thumb.PNG.3f93f4a4605c58ccb336ec332cc7d3d9.PNG

thereafter......if we can get that trough to dig into Europe with heights rising behind (becoming a theme in GFS FI) then we could well be in for a decent cold spell.

will await EC with interest :)

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

For comparison yesterday's UKMO to today's

UN144-21.thumb.GIF.5bfdd3102ea4e439f3da7a7808096d68.GIFUN120-21.thumb.GIF.f90203a5868c4b5305f33ae0f3689939.GIF

GFS

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.cfcbf0c774149f629e08a0ffeadabf17.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.c3f6db0c5fb7660afd4f794abe7bee8c.png

Forgot to save the ECM :doh:

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Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
Posted

For some reason the archive charts don't work for me? At the risk of stirring up the 'can it snow in blah blah uppers' debate. I just wondered what the charts were like for 28th/29th April 2016? Just asking because it snowed here on that date and I'd like to compare those charts with the ones we are seeing at the moment. Thanks in advance to anyone who could post them. :)

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

For some reason the archive charts don't work for me? At the risk of stirring up the 'can it snow in blah blah uppers' debate. I just wondered what the charts were like for 28th/29th April 2016? Just asking because it snowed here on that date and I'd like to compare those charts with the ones we are seeing at the moment. Thanks in advance to anyone who could post them. :)

archives-2016-4-28-12-0.pngarchives-2016-4-29-12-0.pngarchivesnh-2016-4-29-12-1.pngarchivesnh-2016-4-28-12-1.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

For some reason the archive charts don't work for me? At the risk of stirring up the 'can it snow in blah blah uppers' debate. I just wondered what the charts were like for 28th/29th April 2016? Just asking because it snowed here on that date and I'd like to compare those charts with the ones we are seeing at the moment. Thanks in advance to anyone who could post them. :)

archivesnh-2016-4-28-0-2.png

You must remember though even with temps at surface a few degrees above freezing, it can still snow very heavily at that time of year due to steep lapse rates / upping of PPN intensity.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Ecm looking cold at 144

 

Screenshot_20180110-183319.png

Edited by winterof79
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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Ecm looking cold at 144

 

Screenshot_20180110-183319.png

168 is not, different than gfs UKmo! 

To far north.:nonono:

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

 Could be a substantial runner potentially developing at 168 EC, snow on its northern edge...:lets see how it progresses

IMG_3232.thumb.PNG.37c925289918aad51cba14015d5cbfc1.PNG 

 

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Differences in 24hrs in the ECM at 168h...Isn't following the GFS for next weeks snowy output....Maybe just a milder blip:)

ECM1-168_xut9.GIFECM1-192_jyv7.GIFECM0-168_bvj1.GIFECM0-192_zkt8.GIF

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Still looking decidedly chilly for some and energy going s/e.Kitchen sink job rain hail sleet snow thunder and lightning possible in an  unstable flow.

Screenshot_20180110-184255.png

Screenshot_20180110-184409.png

Edited by winterof79
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

To far north at 192 and to powerful for much snow, but a potent storm nonetheless. However the general pattern has much potential going forward in subsequent runs.

IMG_3233.thumb.PNG.ab7f6b64ed0a09903f3ebd7cf4116c73.PNG

 

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Northwest NI Seasoned

Northwest NI

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
Posted
Just now, chris55 said:

To far north at 192 and to powerful for much snow, but a potent storm nonetheless. However the general pattern has much potential going forward in subsequent runs.

IMG_3233.thumb.PNG.ab7f6b64ed0a09903f3ebd7cf4116c73.PNG

 

Too powerful for snow? ?

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Big difference from the 00z run is the re appearance (in line with other modelling) of the polar high 

that forces the trough further south than the previous run and shows the Canadian vortex looking decidedly precarious by day 8.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Too powerful for snow? ?

Yes, the fact it spins up into a deeper (more powerful) low means it ends up to far north, and doesn't slide, a weaker low would slide south east and produce snow on its northern edge.

although snow showers would follow behind once the colder air gets pulled south.

Edited by chris55
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And then 192. Which would blow the cobwebs away 

IMG_1206.PNG

Love to see the 1am output prior to the 13:00 ......Surely that chart would produce 80 to 90 mph gust....Keep your hats on :hi:

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Interesting to see pac-ridge evolving to mass american heights..completely liquidising deep cold and syphoning-ejecting it into higher-out...and indeed the atlantic....

Things certainly on the swerve here!!!..

And with ample height rise situations quickly becoming referable!!!...

And the east again starts eyeing...for perhaps incursion latter on, as things are quickly on the transfer!!!!

Edit; ignoring for the time being the will it won't it snow scenario....

That going to be @24hrs out on the pm-shunt/incursion!!!

ECN1-192.gif

ECH1-192.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Good looking chart this

Screenshot_20180110-185328.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Still quite cold at day 9 on ECM . Is the high gonna ridge towards Greenland at day 10 ? 

IMG_1020.PNG

IMG_1021.PNG

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Still quite cold at day 9 on ECM . Is the high gonna ridge towards Greenland at day 10 ? 

IMG_1020.PNG

IMG_1021.PNG

No, the Azores high rides into town to spoil the party.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Good looking chart this

Screenshot_20180110-185328.png

Think the Azores high will ruin the next frame,it’s always the spoiler in the winter these days 

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